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Up in the sky! It's a bird! It's a plane! It's the Hofstra Flying Dutchmen coming back to the Watch!
Two weeks after banishment was handed down by the voting public, Hofstra has returned. A strong finish against two other quality teams in the America East showed that the Dutchmen are made of hardier stock than first predicted. Perhaps Butler should ask Hofstra how it managed to survive for the last 14 days. The Bulldogs were unceremoniously dumped off the Watch after one week, grabbing a paltry 3.6 percent of the votes. Or maybe Butler just doesn't care -- it finished the regular season on a 12-game winning streak. If you want to see the final results from last week's poll, you can find it in the user feedback from the Feb. 21 Cinderella Watch. Click here read user responses to this week's Watch, and to vote in a special edition poll asking if Dayton should be promoted off the Watch. RPI rankings are as of Saturday, Feb. 27 and records are through Sunday, Feb. 28.
Swooping in to grab the MAC's top seed in the conference tournament, the Falcons are loving life. The No. 1 seed means Bowling Green avoids stiff competition until the MAC semifinals, unlike at-large hopefuls Kent and Ball State. The Falcons got there by winning eight of their last 10 -- including a 73-72 thriller over Akron on Anthony Stacey's 15-foot fadeaway with one second left. Could the karma be building for the Falcons?
The Flyers righted themselves with wins over LaSalle and Rhode Island after a three-losses-in-five-games stretch. With winnable road games at Duquesne and Virginia Tech left before the A-10 tournament starts, Dayton can count on the No. 1 seed out of the West Division. The Flyers are doing it with balance, as five active players average between 8.8 and 14.4 points per game.
Hofstra just might be in the most competitive fight for a single NCAA bid in the country. Between the Dutchmen, Maine and Delaware you have three teams capable of rolling to the America East conference title -- and you'll very likely have two unhappy schools come Selection Sunday because this league won't grab an at-large bid. Our money is on Hofstra because it won't have to face either Maine or Delaware until the conference final, cutting down on the chances that the Dutchmen will be derailed before the title game.
Talk about life on the bubble. At least Indiana State still holds a one-game lead in the conference title race, making a deep run in the MVC tourney more likely. That might be what it takes for a team in this league to distinguish itself enough to earn an at-large bid. The Sycamores need everything they can get -- they haven't exactly cruised to the finish line (4-3 last seven games).
For every Bowling Green edging into first place, there's a Kent knocked down to second. The season-ending loss to Ohio didn't knock Kent out of at-large status because of the Flashes' sky-high RPI, but it didn't help the team's momentum heading into the MAC tournament. Giving up 75 percent shooting in the second half to the Bobcats didn't help, either.
We're not pushing the panic button yet, but West Coast Conference fans should start to feel a little worried. Pepperdine's loss to San Diego isn't as costly as Gonzaga's to Santa Clara, but both hurt the league's chances of at-large bids for both schools. A showdown in the conference tourney final might remove all but the slightest doubt. The league's low power rating (thanks to cellar dwellers Loyola Marymount, Portland and St. Mary's) doesn't do any favors.
The Bears can get a fast start on their race to an at-large bid by beating Southern Illinois on Monday and wrapping up the No. 2 seed (and first-round bye) in the MVC tournament. SMS also has a slight edge in RPI, and with a victory over SIU, will be riding an eight-game winning streak into the postseason.
Along with Cincinnati and Pennsylvania, Utah State is the only team still capable of going undefeated in league play. It won't be easy for the Aggies -- Idaho and Boise State (both 6-8 in league) stand in the way. With wins there and at least two in the conference tournament, there'd be no denying a 27-win team no matter what league it played in.
Greg Collins is the college basketball editor at ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Cinderella Watch feedback Ratings Percentage Index Who's on the bubble? Cinderella Watch: Week 1 Cinderella Watch: Week 2 Cinderella Watch: Week 3 Cinderella Watch: Week 4 Cinderella Watch: Week 5 Weekly Watch: Scratching our heads Video Dunks of the Week Projecting the NCAA Tournament |