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| Changing weather patterns in the Northeast have knocked out our Cinderella Watch supercomputer. That means no square-root exponents of the imaginary number i, no high-tech algorithms, no fancy-pants formulae plotting x, y and z coordinates -- this week, it's pure instinct.
First off, Seton Hall earned the fastest promotion in Watch history. Maybe we waited a week too long to include the Pirates (stupid computer). Maybe we undervalued them from the start. Whatever the reason, Seton Hall proved worthy of contender status by handing Syracuse its first loss of the season (at the Carrier Dome, no less), and followed that up with a gutty overtime road win at Rutgers and a home victory over Boston College Life wasn't so good for Hofstra, last week's poll casualty. The Flying Dutchmen garnered a paltry 4.5 percent of the vote, but even without the populist opinion (or lack thereof), Hofstra didn't do itself any favors by losing to Vermont. And to the Oregon fans who think we're slighting their Ducks -- it's just the contrary. We think Oregon is a legitimate contender to make it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The perceived slight is in fact a measure of respect -- just because the national polls haven't reached the level of enlightenment found here at the Watch isn't our problem. If you want to see the final results from last week's poll, you can find it in the user feedback from the Feb. 7 Cinderella Watch. Click here read user reaction from this week's Watch. RPI rankings are as of Saturday, Feb. 12 and records are through Sunday, Feb. 13.
Dayton's win over St. Bonaventure on Saturday might have signed the NIT ticket for the Bonnies, a former Cinderella candidate. The Flyers' stumble at George Washington earlier last week kept Dayton from all but icing the Atlantic 10 West title. But Temple is Dayton's only remaining regular-season opponent with a winning record, suggesting the loss to the Colonials only delayed the inevitable.
The Sycamores are trying to remove all doubt about which Missouri Valley squad deserves an NCAA bid. A 69-60 win over Evansville gave Indiana State a two-game lead over second-place Southern Illinois with five conference games left. But it won't be easy for the Sycamores -- they still have to travel to Creighton, Southern Illinois and Evansville. Toss in a home game against Bradley, and Indiana State still has to play four of the top five teams in the conference.
Kent kept rolling through the Mid-American with wins over Eastern Michigan and Buffalo. Win the next two -- at Bowling Green and home vs. Akron -- and the Golden Flashes can write their NCAA at-large ticket no matter what happens in the conference tournament. Over Kent's current five-game winning streak, the Flashes are shooting 48.5 percent from the field. Center John Whorton leads the way hitting 60.4 percent of his shots.
OK folks, let's try this again. Pepperdine, voted off the first Watch by the fans, has returned riding a huge win over WCC rival Gonzaga. The Waves snapped the Zags' 11-game winning streak and forged a tie for first in the conference. A home-and-home against Loyola Marymount (that's 2-21 Loyola Marymount, No. 315 out of 318 in RPI) and games at San Diego and at St. Mary's remain on Pepperdine's schedule before a potential rubber match with Gonzaga in the WCC conference title game.
Mustang fans had better hope the Watch doesn't jinx SMU. With the WAC fighting for two bids, SMU needs all the wins it can get but the next stretch is brutal -- at Fresno State, at UTEP, then home games against TCU and Tulsa. The Mustangs would like to get to 10 wins in conference and wrest second place away from the Bulldogs. An RPI higher than Fresno State (58) and TCU (78) helps SMU's cause, but it needs to back that up with wins.
Two conference wins boosted Tulane's RPI 10 spots to 51, greatly helping its NCAA chances. The win over UAB gave the Green Wave sole possession of first place in C-USA's National Division, and while the 6-5 conference record isn't sterling, Tulane can position itself to pick up a couple of wins in the conference tourney by holding onto one of the top seeds.
Oh so close to promotion. All Vanderbilt needed to do was win at Alabama and it'd be off into contender-land. But a 14-point setback to a Crimson Tide team held together by spit and bailing wire (six scholarship players were in street clothes, including Schea Cotton). Vandy coach Kevin Stallings singled out his seniors for not stepping up, which isn't a good sign if the Commodores are thinking about a long run in the NCAA Tournament.
Greg Collins is the college basketball editor at ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Cinderella Watch feedback Cinderella Watch: Week 1 Cinderella Watch: Week 2 Cinderella Watch: Week 3 Weekly Watch: Stanford's steamroller Projecting the NCAA Tournament Video Dunks of the Week  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
