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| Monday, February 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This isn't the year to be a Cinderella from the West Coast.
Gonzaga ruled the ball last season, but now Long Beach State joins Pepperdine as the two schools ESPN.com users have voted off the Watch. The 49ers were bumped because they received just 5.1 percent of the votes (narrowly edged by Kent's 5.5 percent). Time for the left coast to marshall its forces and keep its schools on the Watch! Also, St. Bonaventure was shown the door for losing four of its last five. That's akin to going to the ball wearing white socks with your tuxedo, double-dipping in the salmon mousse and drinking Chardonnay with your Beef Wellington. But it's not all doom and gloom this week. Iowa State earned a promotion for its combination of a sterling overall record (19-3), hitting the Big 12's halfway point at 7-1 and a No. 21 ranking. That all adds up to a high NCAA Tournament seeding. If you want to see the final results from last week's poll, you can find it in the user feedback from the Jan. 31 Cinderella Watch. Click here to read user responses from this week's Watch. RPI rankings are as of Saturday, Feb. 5 and records are through Sunday, Feb. 6.
Dayton's 65-64 overtime loss at Xavier can hardly be called a stumble, but the Flyers could have used the momentum going into their next 10 days. Dayton heads to George Washington to face the suddenly hot Colonials (winners of four in a row, including victories over St. Bonaventure and Xavier) before coming home for St. Bonaventure and Temple. Taking two of three would assure the Flyers of an at-large bid.
Hofstra gets the nod more for accumulated success than for one big win -- but beating Delaware did have some nice symbolism to it. The Flying Dutchmen had beaten Delaware once in the previous eight meetings, and it was revenge for Hofstra's only league loss. Now the Dutchmen hold the cards in the America East race with a one-game lead over Maine and a three-game lead over Delaware.
The Sycamores were thumped 64-48 by Southwest Missouri State to snap their seven-game win streak, but they moved up 10 spots in the RPI. Bookended by two games against Northern Iowa are a couple of MVC land mines -- Evansville and Creighton. If the Purple Aces and Blue Jays have thoughts of the Big Dance, they'll be taking dead aim on conference-leader Indiana State.
Bouncing back from its loss to Toledo to gobble up a few directional schools from Michigan, Kent kept the heat on Akron in the Mid-American East. The Golden Flashes' high RPI makes them a much better candidate for an at-large bid than the Zips (with an RPI of 85). Kent can't look past Bowling Green to the Feb. 19 showdown with Akron.
Seton Hall finds itself here for accomplishing a feat that sounds easier than it really is -- beating the teams it is supposed to beat. Connecticut and St. John's started the season with more hype, but it's the Pirates who are tied for second in the Big East with Miami behind undefeated Syracuse. The Hall gets the test of tests Monday against the Orangemen, but losing at Syracuse won't kill the Pirates' NCAA hopes. What will is stumbling during a four-game homestand later in the month.
Oops. Tulane dropped below .500 in Conference USA standings, which will severely handicap the Green Wave's chances of an NCAA tourney berth unless they can pick it up. To have a realistic shot at the Big Dance, Tulane needs to win at least five of its last seven games and probably needs a win or two in the C-USA tournament.
The Commodores get a chance to fatten up on the SEC West this week before getting a chance to knock off big boys Auburn and Tennessee at home. Vandy's remaining road games are all winnable (Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi), giving it the wiggle room to drop a game or two and still feel confident about getting a good seed in the tournament.
Greg Collins is the college basketball editor at ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Cinderella Watch feedback Cinderella Watch: Week 1 Cinderella Watch: Week 2 Projecting the NCAA Tournament Weekly Watch: Suspending belief Video Dunks of the Week |