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 Tuesday, February 29
Upsets, suspensions too strange to predict
 
By Andy Katz
ESPN.com

 Editor's note: Every Sunday, ESPN.com's Andy Katz will break down the week that was and what's coming up in the Weekly Watch. Be sure to check out the Weekly Watch segment Sunday nights on ESPN2's College Hoops2Night with Karl Ravech and Jay Bilas.

Last week's storyline
The week was dominated by upset stomachs off the court and plenty of upsets on it. Both were hard to figure.

What's up this week
Purdue at Indiana, Tuesday: The rivalry takes on new meaning with the Hoosiers upsetting Michigan State. Purdue is now tied with the Spartans for first in the Big Ten, setting up a heated game in Bloomington.

LSU at Auburn, Wednesday: First place in the SEC West and a No. 1 seed in the SEC tournament is on the line. A top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament could also be at stake.

Xavier at St. Bonaventure, Wednesday: Two Atlantic 10 bubble teams meet in the final week. The loser is probably done. The winner has hope if it can win two games in the conference tournament.

Tulane at Memphis, Wednesday: The Green Wave took a hit when it got crushed at UNC Charlotte. The chances of Conference USA getting four teams in the tournament could ride with a Tulane win in this game.

Syracuse at Notre Dame, Wednesday: Can you say must-win for the Irish? Syracuse needs this game to hold off St. John's for first.

Cincinnati at DePaul, Thursday: This is likely the final hurdle in an undefeated conference season for the Bearcats. DePaul needs another quality win to help its cause.

Arizona State at Oregon, Thursday: After losing two straight, the Ducks stopped the bleeding by beating USC on Saturday. The Sun Devils need this win more than the Ducks, but Oregon could use it for a better seed.

Florida at Kentucky, Saturday: First place in the SEC East is on the line, as well as a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Gators haven't won the big road game in the SEC yet.

North Carolina at Duke, Saturday: The Tar Heels aren't a lock just yet. Duke needs to win to assert itself for the No. 1 seed. Expect another classic.

Maryland at Virginia, Saturday: The Cavaliers could use another win to help their chances after losing to Florida State. Maryland would like to ensure a top-five seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Tulsa at SMU, Saturday: First place in the WAC could be in jeopardy by this time if the Golden Hurricane doesn't beat the Mustangs. SMU may need at least one win over Tulsa to get an at-large berth.

St. John's at Miami, Sunday: The Big East ends with the Red Storm in the Miami Heat's old gym. Expect this game to be a defensive affair, but the 'Canes need a win a bit more.

Alabama beats Auburn and Tennessee, St. John's wins at Duke, bubbles burst among the mid-majors and Vanderbilt and Missouri suddenly don't look so strong.

The off-court news was just as befuddling. Michigan's Jamal Crawford was hit with another suspension (eight games), but this time for declaring for the draft ... or more precisely, not declaring properly. As a senior at Seattle's Rainier Beach H.S. last spring, Crawford sent in his letter declaring for the draft, but he missed the deadline.

The NBA never recognized the letter and didn't put him on its early-entry list. Crawford later sent a letter to the NBA, pulling his name off the list. But the NBA never acknowledged that letter either, and didn't put his name on the list of players who withdrew.

How can the NCAA penalize a player for intending to declare for the draft, but not really doing it? Plus, how can the NCAA penalize Crawford in February for something he did last May? Hello? This was reported last year; why wait until now to act on it?

The rule for high school seniors and junior college players is supposed to be clear: declare for the draft and college eligibility expires before it starts. College of Sequoias forward DeeAndre Hulett suffered the penalty when he declared -- officially -- and then took his name out of the draft -- officially -- and chose the IBL because he couldn't go to a four-year school.

Elsewhere, Cincinnati's DerMarr Johnson was suspended for one game for having a portion of his prep school tuition paid for by his AAU coach. This was common knowledge. The same is true for a number of other players in the nation.

But Johnson was suspended for just one game. Oklahoma State's Andre Williams sat for five for the same offense.

And then on Sunday, Auburn had to hold Chris Porter out of its game against Florida because of alleged contact with an agent. Who's next? It's anyone's guess. But don't be surprised if a team loses a player on the day of a NCAA Tournament game for the same reason. And, now, to the games...

Team of the week
St. John's: The Red Storm swept Connecticut and Duke last week for their sixth and seventh straight wins. The streak started when St. John's survived a one-point win over Boston College in the first of two games without then-suspended point guard Erick Barkley.

The team's defense and quickness make the Red Storm the favorite (yes, even over Syracuse) to win the Big East Conference tournament at Madison Square Garden. The Garden should have a frenzied atmosphere with the Red Storm in the final.

All this talk of Syracuse as a No. 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament should be replaced by St. John's being a legitimate candidate for a No. 3 seed (who knows, maybe even a 2). At 20-6, St. John's shows no signs of slowing down.

Player of the week
Alabama's Rod Grizzard: The Tide freshman forward scored 14 points, had five blocks and four steals in an upset over Tennessee on Saturday. Earlier in the week, Grizzard's 25 points (including five 3s) and two blocks led the Tide to an upset over Auburn.

Granted, both games were at home, but the Tide are doing a remarkable impression of last year's Illinois. The Illini reached the Big Ten tournament title game after a mediocre regular season. Don't be shocked to see Alabama as a spoiler in the SEC tournament.

Climbing up
Maryland: If St. John's is the hottest team in the nation, Maryland can't be too far behind. Gary Williams has done one of his better coaching jobs, molding this blend of veterans and key newcomers at the point and inside into a team that could make a deep run again in the NCAA Tournament.

Maryland has won eight straight ACC games and locked up the No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament. Two months ago, the Terps looked like they were going to be a bubble team.

The maturity and development of sophomores Juan Dixon and Lonny Baxter isn't a fluke. Coaching and hard work has made these two players all-ACC material this year, and potential all-Americans next season. Point guard Steve Blake may be one of the most underrated freshman in a star-studded national freshman classes.

Falling down
Vanderbilt: The Commodores have slipped from lock status to the bubble by losing four of their last five games. Vanderbilt (17-8 overall, 7-7 SEC) should still be the sixth team out of the SEC, but now has to take care of business in its final two games by beating Georgia and South Carolina. Losing one and falling in the first round of the SEC tournament could put the Commodores in a tenuous position come Selection Sunday.

Have the Commodores hit a wall? Perhaps, but they need to refocus this week and once again be the team that swept Tennessee and looked like an SEC title contender, not a NCAA pretender.

Five worth tracking
Iowa State: The Cyclones sweep of Texas and Oklahoma State made the Big 12 title theirs to lose. But the Cyclones did catch a break by only having to play those two teams at home this season. If Iowa State can sweep Texas Tech and Baylor on the road and get to the Big 12 tournament final, why can't the Cyclones be a No. 2 seed?

Temple: The Owls haven't lost since Jan. 15 at St. Bonaventure (that was 13 games ago), with five of those wins coming in road games -- including wins at Dayton and Cincinnati. With Duke and Michigan State losing and either Arizona or Stanford having to lose at least one more game (when they play each other March 9), why can't Temple be a candidate for a No. 1 seed? The Owls need to beat St. Joseph's and win at George Washington, as well as sweep the A-10 tournament, to have a chance.

Illinois: The Illini have moved from bubble to lock status in the past few weeks, and their humbling victory over Indiana should serve notice to the committee. Illinois should be in the five- or six-seed range with a chance for a No. 4 if they keep winning. Playing Ohio State on Sunday could make it dicey, but the Illini finish with Northwestern before the Big Ten tournament.

Utah State: OK, enough already, put the Aggies in the field of 64 if they win their final two home games against Idaho and Boise State. Utah State (23-5, 14-0 Big West) is one of three teams (Cincinnati and Penn are the others) that has a chance to go undefeated in its conference. If the Aggies finish 25-5 and 16-0 and don't win the Big West tournament title, they should still get a bid. If they don't, it will be a crime, regardless of their final RPI.

Villanova: The Wildcats' upset win over Seton Hall on Saturday put them back on the bubble with a 17-10 record, 7-7 in the Big East. But the Wildcats still have plenty of work to do, beginning with beating Providence and Boston College this week. It would be hard to take the Wildcats with 12 or more losses. Selection committee chair Craig Thompson didn't sound too sympathetic to Villanova's claim that extra consideration should be given to its loss to Miami. The buzzer-beating win for the Hurricanes occurred before the rule change was instituted allowing officials to look at the monitor.

Question these five
Notre Dame: Villanova doesn't have the marquee wins like Notre Dame does, but the Irish don't have the strong finish. Notre Dame lost to Providence at home and at Miami this week to drop to 7-7 in the Big East and a dangerous 16-12 overall. The Irish face must-wins against Syracuse and at Georgetown this week. Notre Dame could afford one more loss (in the Big East tournament) but that might be it, even with its impressive wins earlier in the season.

N.C. State: The Wolfpack dropped to 1-8 on the road this season with a loss at Georgia Tech. But what's even worse is they fell to 15-10 overall and 5-9 in the ACC (sixth place). N.C. State must beat Clemson on Sunday and win at Florida State next Sunday. If they don't, the Wolfpack's only hope of making the Big Dance will be to win the ACC tournament title.

Missouri: Do you remember all that talk about the Tigers being a lock in the Big 12? Yes, you even heard it here. But Missouri dropped games to Oklahoma State at home and at Oklahoma this week to fall to 16-10 overall, 9-5 in the Big 12 and 1-5 against the top four teams in the league (Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas). The Tigers need to beat Nebraska and put on a good showing at Kansas before the Big 12 tournament.

A second bid from the Missouri Valley: Even though the MVC shouldn't be penalized for having a high level of parity, the selection committee will have a hard time giving it two bids. Indiana State's loss to Southern Illinois (18-10) dropped the Sycamores to 20-8. Then Southern Illinois may have taken itself out of the mix by losing to Bradley. Southwest Missouri State (19-9) and Creighton (19-9) are in similar positions. The selection committee would likely be setting a precedent if it chose a mid-major at-large team with double-digit losses.

Connecticut: The Huskies survived another embarrassment by beating West Virginia on a last-second basket. That win probably ensured that the defending national champions will get an NCAA Tournament bid. The Huskies (19-8, 8-6) travel to Rutgers and then host Syracuse this week. Losing both could push them as low as a double-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament. Even if they sweep, they could have a hard time getting higher than a seven or eight seed.

What worked last week
Fresno State's zone against Tulsa: The Bulldogs shocked the Golden Hurricane for the second time this season with a win Thursday in Tulsa. The zone was effective in keeping the depleted Bulldogs fresh at the offensive end. Fresno State then won at Rice to push the Bulldogs' record to 19-9 (9-3 WAC). If the Bulldogs beat Tulsa three times (Fresno State hosts the conference tournament), the selection committee would have a hard time keeping them out. Beating Tulsa twice may even be enough.

Anthony Stacey's buzzer-beater: The Bowling Green forward buried a 15-foot jumper with 1.1 seconds left to beat Akron last week. He finished with 20 points, scoring eight in the final five minutes. The victory gave the Falcons a share of the MAC East title and a NCAA-worthy 22-6 record.

Mark Karcher's 3-point shooting: Every time a Temple highlight comes up, Karcher seems to be making a 3-pointer. The junior forward's perimeter touch has been an offensive lift for the supposedly too defensive-minded Owls. Karcher's touch makes him even more marketable as a potential NBA first-round choice if family financial pressure drives him out a year early.

Lynn Washington's timing: The Indiana forward scored two points Saturday, but they were the most important two of the game. His follow shot on A.J. Guyton's miss at the end of overtime lifted the Hoosiers over Michigan State. The victory gave the Hoosiers new faith in their quest to be a factor in the NCAA Tournament and become a Sweet 16 team under Bob Knight once again.

South Alabama's Sun Belt dominance: The Jaguars clinched their third Sun Belt title in four years by beating Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana Tech last week. This was a team picked to finish in the bottom third in the conference.

And what didn't work
Getting the ball to Troy Murphy: The Irish's top scorer had two shots in the first half against Miami, which was playing without its best scorer in suspended Johnny Hemsley. Murphy finished with 10 shots and scored 14 points in the crushing loss.

Arizona State's upset hopes: No Loren Woods (back injury), no Richard Jefferson (stress fracture) for Arizona, but still no upset for Arizona State. The Sun Devils couldn't stop Luke Walton and failed to capitalize on a golden opportunity to pull off an upset of their rival. A win would have potentially locked up a bid. Now the Sun Devils must at least earn a split on road trip to Oregon and Oregon State.

Troy Bell's knee: The favorite to win Big East rookie of the year suffered a torn meniscus in his knee and is out for the rest of the season. Boston College's top scorer was having a banner season before the injury and his loss canceled out hopes of the Eagles picking up a win against Pittsburgh and now jeopardizes their chances of beating Providence and Villanova to close out the season.

Rick Stansbury's technical: The Mississippi State coach lost his cool late in the game against LSU on Saturday. The technical was costly, putting the Tigers at the line when the game was still within the Bulldogs' reach. Instead, the Tigers went on to another win and stayed on course for a SEC West title. Meanwhile, Mississippi State's best chance to get noticed this season was lost.

Headbands at Michigan: The gesture was meant as a sign of unity for suspended guard Jamal Crawford, but the absences of Crawford and the injured LaVell Blanchard were too much to overcome against Purdue. The Wolverines simply need this season to be over and start fresh in 2000-01.

Andy Katz is a senior writer for ESPN.com. His Weekly Watch appears every Sunday.

 



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AUDIO/VIDEO
video
 ESPN.com's Andy Katz gives his Weekly Watch.
RealVideo:  | 28.8

 Jay Bilas and Karl Ravech gives this week's rundown.
RealVideo:  | 28.8