Series Breakdown: Avalanche vs. Coyotes
By Brian Engblom
Special to ESPN.com
Colorado won't have Peter Forsberg for some time because of his shoulder injury. Will it hurt their chances against Phoenix? Check out which team has the edge, and then see what I think the outcome will be.
Matching up 5-on-5
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BREAKDOWN
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EDGE
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Their numbers are pretty close for the season, but logic says Colorado is better offensively. The Avs have more guys they can go to. Phoenix doesn't have a lot of offensive sources. Keith Tkachuk should be back from an ankle sprain, but will he be in game shape? He and Jeremy Roenick are their main offensive weapons. So, if Tkachuk takes a few games to adjust and establish his offensive game, the series may be over. Roenick will need to be superhuman without getting frustrated. Defensively, the Avs are much improved with Ray Bourque. He has changed their thinking defensively with the little things. He is a workhorse and a superstar grinder. The Coyotes defensemen have struggled lately. They need to move the puck efficiently, which is tough to do against Joe Sakic, Chris Drury, Milan Hejduk and Bourque. The Avs may be able to cover up for the loss of Peter Forsberg for a while. Dave Andreychuk's presence will help, as will Alex Tanguay, who has had a phenomenal year. Colorado will try to pound away at Jyrki Lumme, Teppo Numminen and Lyle Odelein to slow them down and get more scoring chances.
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Special teams
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BREAKDOWN
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EDGE
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Colorado's power play was fourth in the league. Sakic and Bourque are hot, confident and creative and can do a tremendous amount of damage. Phoenix's power play, however, is its Achilles' heel, second-worst in the league. The good thing about the Coyotes is that they are fairly disciplined, not allowing too many penalty minutes. Don't expect Phoenix to give Colorado too many power-play chances.
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Goaltending
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BREAKDOWN
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EDGE
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Goaltending has not been a problem for Phoenix. Sean Burke has played strong and consistent. But he is going against Patrick Roy, whose numbers speak for themselves. Roy took a few days off at the end of the season, then played against Detroit on Sunday. He is confident -- in himself and his team. You can't ignore his history as the biggest big-time goalie ever.
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Intangibles
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BREAKDOWN
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EDGE
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Phoenix will get a boost with Tkachuk back. But Colorado is hungry and confident. The Avs are a different, more well-rounded team since acquiring Bourque, and they ended the season with eight straight wins.
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PREDICTION
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Avalanche in five. Colorado is too strong, and Phoenix lacks offense and confidence to overcome a streaking Avalanche team. One win over Colorado might be generous.
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Brian Engblom, a former NHL star with the Canadiens, serves as an NHL analyst for ESPN and ABC.
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