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December 06, 2001



If Vols lose? Big BCS mess
By Dan Patrick

If you don't like the Bowl Championship Series and its attendant formula for deciding which two teams will play for the national championship in college football, then you're a huge fan of Louisiana State University for the rest of the week. And Rohan Davey is your favorite quarterback. You'll be telling everyone you meet how much you like running back LaBrandon Toefield.

College football faces lots of questions right now, and try as they might the BCS gurus can't answer all of them.
Because if LSU beats Tennessee in the Georgia Dome for the SEC title on Saturday, then the BCS will be a big fat mess. And the call for a playoff for the Division I college football championship will be louder than ever.

Trust me. If Tennessee loses, a computer will not choose Miami's opponent in the Rose Bowl. That team will be selected in a smoke-filled room. The choices? Nebraska, Illinois, Oregon and Colorado. The first three have one loss and Colorado has two, so there are plenty of reasons to argue against a ticket to Pasadena for each one of these teams.

Nebraska (which the computer loves, by the way) would probably go to the Rose Bowl if the Vols lose to LSU. But the Cornhuskers were trounced by Colorado in their last game, giving up a school-record 62 points. That stunning and, more importantly, recent loss alone makes the 'Huskers a weak choice.

Illinois lost to a mediocre Michigan team in a down year for the Big Ten. The Illini won the Big Ten only because Michigan couldn't beat a measly 6-4 Ohio State team. Illinois played three teams that made the top 25 and lost to one of them. Not an impressive year.

Oregon lost at home to Stanford, and the Ducks' season-ending 17-14 win against Oregon State was ho-hum and rain-soaked. Granted, if Oregon were undefeated or if Oregon State were a top-10 team, then Oregon would be a nice choice. But that isn't the case.

Colorado is on the fringe due to some great, late-season wins over Nebraska and Texas. But early-season losses to Fresno State and Texas put them in too deep a hole. Still, a Tennessee loss makes Miami-Colorado an awfully good-looking Rose Bowl. Colorado is a lot like last year's Oregon State squad -- looking real good at the end, yet too far back to be part of the discussion. But if I were in that smoke-filled room, this is the game I'd want (if Tennessee loses).

To be fair to the BCS, there is a kind of playoff in place right now. Tennessee is certainly in a lose-or-you're-out-of-it scenario this weekend. For a few weeks now, in fact, the Rose Bowl has been in the grasp of several teams who let it slip away and land in the hands of the Volunteers.

Nebraska needed to beat Colorado and win the Big 12 title game. Didn't happen. Then it looked like Florida and Texas would be battling it out for a trip to Pasadena on Jan. 3. Florida had to beat Tennessee and win the SEC title for the trip west. But Florida's loss to Tennessee cleared a path to the Rose Bowl for Texas ... and then the Longhorns promptly lost to Colorado.

Three teams had the No. 2 slot in their grasp ahead of Tennessee and each lost it. That sounds a lot like what you get in a playoff. You move on if you win. Go home -- or, in these cases, go to a lesser bowl -- if you lose.

Still, there are lots of questions in college football right now, and try as they might the BCS gurus can't answer all of them:

  • Which late-season loss was worse, Nebraska's or Florida's?

  • Would Tennessee have beaten Florida on Sept. 15, the game's original date?

  • Is Tennessee unfairly rewarded for what was, I grant you, a big win over Florida?

  • Which late-season showing was more impressive, Tennessee's win over Florida or Colorado's victories over Nebraska and Texas?

    But you can't change the rules during the season. Tennessee lost once and lost early. The Vols beat the second-ranked team in the country and did it Dec. 1 on the road. Like it or not, that's how you play the BCS game. Colorado has itself to blame for losing to Fresno State and Texas early on.

    I do have this lingering feeling, though, that Colorado should play Tennessee and the winner gets Miami. And, by the way, both teams have plenty of open dates from Dec. 8 on. But this season may just go down as another bittersweet college football campaign that's fair on the surface but leaves a bad, unsatisfying taste.

    For the record, I don't root one way or the other. It's just not smart in my job. But I'll say this: If LSU beats Tennessee, college football may be forced to look really hard at how it determines a national champion. And that can only be good.

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