The Patriots dropped to 6-4 by losing to Miami and decided -- correctly -- they're in trouble in the AFC East.

	Marshall Faulk and the Rams don't have many challengers in the NFC.

The New York Jets improved to 4-6 by beating Buffalo and gave themselves a chance to make the playoffs.

"Hey, there are what -- six games left?" Jets coach Bill Parcells declared. "We can just go out and win and let things take care of themselves."

In reality, things are starting to shake out, as they usually do about this time. In this case, that means quite a few mediocre-to-bad teams remain in playoff contention in the NFC.

And how about a Super Bowl between St. Louis and Indianapolis, a combined 7-25 last year, a combined 16-4 now.

Here's a look:

AFC
At first glance, it seems simple.

Miami and Indianapolis (both 8-2) fighting for the AFC East title, with Buffalo (7-4) and New England (6-4) in good position for wild cards. Jacksonville (9-1) in the Central, Seattle (8-2) in the West and Tennessee (8-2) in position to challenge the Jags for the AFC Central or at least claim a wild-card spot.

OK, that's seven where six should fit. Throw in Oakland (5-4 going into Monday night's game in Denver), Kansas City (5-5 but sinking) and Pittsburgh (ditto).

Plus, in Parcells' mind, the Jets.

So start again.

There are probably four teams with legitimate Super Bowl hopes -- Miami, Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Seattle.

In order:

1. Jaguars. They have one of the NFL's easier schedules. But their only loss is to Tennessee, and they have to play the Titans in Nashville on Dec. 26. If Tennessee stays one game behind, they get the tiebreaker. Still, Jacksonville demonstrated Sunday night that it can win with six points if it has to (6-3 over Baltimore) or 41. Because the Jaguars probably will be home in the playoffs, they remain the Super Bowl favorite.

2. Colts. How does a team go from 3-13 to 8-2? Free agency, good drafting (Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf, Edgerrin James over Ricky Williams), luck. But Manning is the best second-year quarterback since Dan Marino in 1984 and Marino took those Dolphins to the Super Bowl. Big game: Dec. 5 at Miami (if they can get by Ray Lucas and the Jets at home next week).

3. Seahawks. On cruise control in the West after an impressive win in Kansas City, the Chiefs' first home loss. Dennis Erickson's critics were right -- there is a lot of talent, and Mike Holmgren has used it. Joey Galloway will help as the season goes on. A good darkhorse.

4. Dolphins. Great defense, but the offense has problems. Marino might be ready for the game in Dallas on Thursday. But a rusty Marino and a thin running back corps leave little margin for error.

Throw everyone else in the field. Buffalo, which could probably get home field in the NFC, will most likely be a wild card in the AFC. New England misses Robert Edwards too much and Drew Bledsoe is an immobile target for pass rushers. Tennessee probably isn't as good as its record -- too many close games take too much out of a team.

NFC
The Rams (8-2) are obviously the class now (323 points scored, 135 allowed). But by having a week off, the Vikings (6-4) moved into a threeway tie with the Bucs and Lions in the Central with the Packers a game back. Minnesota has won four straight, Tampa Bay three, and Detroit has lost two in a row.

The East? Don't even ask. Washington (6-4) has played three consecutive bad games, lost two of them and still leads the division.

In order:

1. Rams. Kurt Warner has been so good that an average game Sunday looked bad -- just one TD pass and 201 yards in the 23-7 win in San Francisco. "Not every game is going to be a great game for us," he said. For most the decade, any win was a great game for the Rams. Now they're a heavy favorite to get home-field advantage and a Super Bowl trip.

2. Vikings. They've won four straight since Jeff George replaced Randall Cunningham, an upset in itself for George. He turns 32 next month and maybe he finally has grown up. Are the Vikings like the 1997 Broncos, who were upset as a heavy favorite the previous year, then won the Super Bowl as a wild card the next?

It's hard to like anyone else.

The Redskins have talent, but have threats by 34-year-old owner Dan Snyder made everyone play nervously? The latest is that Norv Turner must not only take the team to the playoffs, but deep into them to save his job. He probably has to win the Super Bowl, which won't happen.

Detroit? The turning point was Bobby Ross' strange decision to go for two two-point conversions in Arizona.

Tampa Bay? Still quarterback questions.

Dallas? Injuries on a team that wasn't very good to start with.

Green Bay? Brett Favre and bandages.

Make it the Rams or Vikings against the Jaguars or Colts, and enjoy.

No letting up
With Indianapolis leading the Eagles 44-3 with 8:27 left, Colts coach Jim Mora actually challenged a touchdown pass by Donovan McNabb, the first of his career, to Chad Lewis.

"Why let them score if they don't deserve to score?" Mora said. "I don't care if we're behind by 30 points or ahead by 30 points. To me, every play's important."