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Monday, October 4
Updated: October 5, 11:56 AM ET
 
Sizing up the arms race

By Dave Goldberg
Associated Press

With apologies to Vince Lombardi, in the 1999 NFL season, a quarterback isn't everything, he's the only thing.

So:

THE EARLY LINE
It's time for a few awards as the NFL hits the quarter pole:

MVP: Tie, Brad Johnson, Washington; Brett Favre, Green Bay.

Offensive player: Tie, Kurt Warner, St. Louis; Tshimanga Biakabutuka, Carolina.

Defensive player: Aaron Beasley, Jacksonville.

Coach: Tie, Chan Gailey, Dallas; Dick Vermeil, St. Louis; Dick Jauron, Chicago.

Offensive rookie: Edgerrin James, Indianapolis.

Defensive rookie: Champ Bailey, Washington.

  • Denver and Atlanta, last year's Super Bowl contestants, are both 0-4 because John Elway retired and Chris Chandler keeps getting hurt the way he did before last season. Arizona is 1-3 because Jake Plummer, who was supposed to become a superstar this year, has thrown 12 interceptions in four games.

  • Washington is 3-1 because Brad Johnson has stayed healthy and is putting up enough points to offset a defense that's allowing almost 30 points a game. St. Louis is 3-0 because an Arena League graduate named Kurt Warner has become the first modern QB to throw three TD passes in each of his first three NFL games.

  • Green Bay could be 0-3 instead of 2-1 had not Brett Favre, the best quarterback in the game, thrown winning TD passes with 11 and 12 seconds left. And New England is 4-0 because Drew Bledsoe has reached the elite level and his receivers, notably Terry Glenn, have remained healthy.

  • Indianapolis is moving quickly into the middle echelons because Peyton Manning has developed into a premier quarterback in 19 NFL games.

    There are other examples.

    There is Pittsburgh, where after two good games, Kordell Stewart has reverted to his 1998 form. Against Jacksonville on Sunday, he managed to get dumped for two safeties in the fourth quarter.

    There is Tampa Bay, where Trent Dilfer had been awful until Sunday, when he almost brought the Bucs back from a 21-0 first-quarter deficit. But the emphasis is on "almost." Dilfer has been an "almost" his entire six-year career.

    Brad Johnson
    The Redskins' Brad Johnson is tied for the NFL lead with nine TD passes.
    There are the New York Jets, losers to Denver in last year's AFC Championship Game but 1-3 because Vinny Testaverde tore his Achilles' tendon and Rick Mirer is now the quarterback.

    There is Baltimore, which has a wonderful defense, but has replaced Scott Mitchell with career backup Stoney Case. Case has been OK, but the jury's still out.

    There is San Francisco, which has a way of getting by with backups, and handed Tennessee its first loss Sunday with Canadian League refugee Jeff Garcia at quarterback. Steve Young is supposed to be back next week, but maybe Garcia is the future.

    And there are the New York Giants, 2-2 because they have one of the NFL's best defenses but have Kent Graham and/or Kerry Collins playing quarterback. On Sunday, they managed to turn the ball over five times, giving Philadelphia 15 points and barely won 16-15 despite outgaining the awful Eagles 361-174.

    "He was struggling big time," coach Jim Fassel said of Graham after he threw three interceptions and was yanked for Collins.

    So, unfortunately, are a lot of quarterbacks.

    No one looks Super
    The quarterback problems have produced a season in which almost no one looks good enough to win a Super Bowl, although someone will have to. There is certainly no dominant team like the Broncos, Packers, Cowboys and 49ers of previous years.

    Here's an early look at the possible favorites:

    An all-Florida conference title game in the AFC?

    At this point, the Jaguars and Dolphins look like the conference's best, although they're certainly not overwhelming. New England has won all four of its games by a total of 19 points, the biggest margin being 12 over winless Cleveland on Sunday.

    Tennessee looks like a playoff contender, in part because it has a backup quarterback, Neil O'Donnell, who's better than half the starters in the league. And Mike Holmgren has predictably perked up Seattle. On the other hand, who in the AFC isn't a contender? Cincinnati, Cleveland and even Denver.

    In the NFC, the Vikings still look like the class of the conference even though they've lost twice and haven't yet scored more than 21 points in a game. Randall Cunningham finally found Randy Moss deep on Sunday, but Moss is still acting like a child. When Cunningham threw a ball too low, he pointed upward, showing up a quarterback who has 12 NFL seasons on him.

    Dallas is 3-0 because it has Troy Aikman, and the Cowboys probably will win the NFC East. But if they get to the Super Bowl, they're still only half as good as the team that won three times this decade.

    San Francisco is a shadow of its former self. But the 49ers, with Young and his receivers and a good linebacking corps, could win the West. The Rams, who have beaten two winless teams plus Baltimore, play host to San Francisco this week. They'll be trying to break a 17-game losing streak against the 49ers that dates to 1990.

    Maybe the Redskins are this year's Falcons -- a team that becomes a contender by keeping an injury-prone quarterback (Johnson) healthy. But if Johnson goes down, the 'Skins can't survive because of a leaky defense.

    Favre probably can carry Green Bay to the playoffs. And defense can do the same for Tampa, which needs Warren Sapp back. Beyond them are marginal contenders like the Giants, Cardinals and Lions.

    In other words, it's a mediocre season.

    Quote of the week
    Carolina coach George Seifert, asked why he stuck with his plan to rotate Tshimanga Biakabutuka with Fred Lane after Biakabutuka had scored three times early in a 38-36 loss at Washington.

    "Maybe I should have had him play defense," Seifert replied. "That was our real problem."





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