Thursday, August 31
Ten things to watch for 2000




With the season openers just days away, NFL 2Night host Mark Malone sat down with ESPN.com and offered a quick preview of what to expect in 2000. Here are Malone's 10 things to watch, including his pick for who will win Super Bowl XXXV in Tampa:

1. Quarterbacks are changing.
Look for the development of a different breed of quarterback. There are still some classic drop-back passers, but most of the emerging QBs don't fit into a traditional box. Many of them are athletes and playmakers like Steve McNair, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith.

Eddie George
Titans running back Eddie George is primed to produce an MVP season.

There always will be a place in the game for the classic drop-back passer, if he's an outstanding talent like Trent Green, Kurt Warner or Peyton Manning, and if he's surrounded by great athletes. But there aren't many of those talents nor those teams, so we'll continue to see more athletic quarterbacks dominating the game.

2. The Ravens and Bears will surprise.
We're all looking for surprise teams, given what happened in St Louis last year. I don't see a team that will be the "Rams of 2000," but the Baltimore Ravens will surprise people.

The Ravens have tremendous speed, offensive weapons gained through free agency and one of the league's best defenses. Rookie running back Jamal Lewis is going to be a great young player in Brian Billick's system. The big question is quarterback Tony Banks, but they've given him a lot of tools with which to succeed. Baltimore will be a solid playoff team and could even go deep into the postseason.

I also like Chicago. The Bears have some deficiencies on defense, but I like Gary Croton's offense. He has offensive weapons and young quarterbacks who will continue to improve.

3. The Packers will disappoint.
The Seahawks haven't had a very good preseason, but I still have a lot of faith in Mike Holmgren. It's Holmgren's former team, the Packers, that will have a disappointing season.

There is the distracting hoopla surrounding the firing of Ray Rhodes and the hiring of Mike Sherman, and I think Brett Favre's elbow will haunt him throughout the season. The Pack has some really big question marks on the defensive side of the football, and Dorsey Levens starts the year injured. Plus, the Packers play in a really tough division. Sherman will make the Packers tougher, but it'll be difficult for them to live up to the expectations people have.

4. Vince Tobin is the coach on the hottest seat.
The Cardinals struggled last season and didn't make the playoffs. They have several preseason injuries and are fighting to get a new stadium deal in Phoenix. Several coaches will be feeling pressure this year, but Arizona's Vince Tobin has a combination of factors working against him.

Pittsburgh's Bill Cowher probably isn't in jeopardy of losing his job, but it's not going to be easy for the Steelers given their quarterback situation. Jerry Jones has never shown a lot of patience in Dallas. Even though Dave Campo is in his first season as a NFL head coach, he's going to be under an immense amount of scrutiny.

5. Best offseason addition: Baltimore's tight end combo.
If you've got Shannon Sharpe and Ben Coates in an offense, you can do a lot of different things with formations and create a lot of mismatches. The Ravens will be able to fully utilize the talents of Sharpe and Coates, and they'll both certainly improve Tony Banks' game.

Reggie White and Eric Swann were solid pickups for Carolina, but it is critical for them to stay healthy if they are going to be a factor. Regardless, the Panthers have issues on the defensive side of the ball. That's why White and Swann won't have as big of an impact as Sharpe and Coates.

6. Worst offseason addition: Kent Graham.
The Steelers went out and spent $5.1 million on a three-year contract for Kent Graham, who is basically an insurance policy for Kordell Stewart. They did this because they had their doubts about Stewart, and Graham has been named the starter for the opener.

Do they really want the fate of their season and their offense in this guy's hands? Graham hasn't proven himself as a big-time quarterback in this league. If you're going to spend that kind of money, shouldn't you get someone who is more capable? Or did they go after Graham specifically because he's not a big-time quarterback, and they didn't want to create a clash of egos or confidence problems with Stewart?

Every team that gets an insurance policy hopes they don't have to use it, but if you do have to use it, you want that policy to be able to cover your losses. I don't know if that will happen in Pittsburgh.

7. Eddie George will be the NFL's MVP.
The Titans are more hungry than any team in the NFL, because they feel like the Super Bowl was stolen from them. They are the most complete team, both offensively and defensively. The addition of Carl Pickens will help them do some things in the passing game they haven't been able to do before. But it still all starts and stops with Eddie George.

He's a big, strong, durable veteran. Even if they perform well in the passing game, it's going to be a result of George's ability to run the football and dictate defenses based on the running game. If the Titans are going to win the Super Bowl, as I predict they will, George will have to have a monster year.

8. Don't expect much from Jake Plummer.
Jake Plummer
Plummer
Jake Plummer is flashy, but he led the league in interceptions last year. He's often trying to do too much to overcome the deficiencies of the Cardinals. Arizona has upgraded its running back situation, but the offensive line remains a question mark. The Cardinals have also sustained injuries at wide receiver.

Plummer will often look great, but sometimes he'll look awful. He's going to take a beating again, and he's not a very big guy. Add all of this up, and you don't have a banner year for Plummer or the Cardinals.

9. Windows are closing on several teams.
The Vikings' window has shut. I don't see them as a Super Bowl contender with a first-time starter at quarterback and all the holes they have on the defensive side of the football. They'll be competitive, but they're not going to win a championship.

Jacksonville's window is rapidly closing. The Jaguars are projected way over the cap next year. They've been close a couple years -- and probably should have won it, but they haven't been able to get past Tennessee. Now with all the injuries, one wonders if they can battle back and find a way to beat Tennessee and a much improved team in Baltimore.

10. Instant replay will keep working.
The longer it's in place, the better the replay system is because the officials have been able to make it work quicker. Some owners aren't convinced replay is good for the game because they are purists and think it interrupts the flow of the game. They also think coaches shouldn't be burdened with the pressure of burning another timeout.

But coaches and teams are getting more used to it every year. They're figuring out how it works and what's prudent in terms of challenges and overturning plays. The more it gets figured out, the better it will be.

Mark Malone is the host of NFL 2Night on ESPN2.







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