| | By Chris Fowler
Special to ESPN.com
So, who'll be voted college football's Sole Survivor? Who will Outwit, Outplay, and Outlast the competition?
The tribal council of coaches and media convenes late into the tropical night, January 3rd in Miami. Here's hoping the contestants won't be reduced to shamelessly lobbying, extolling their virtues to the council, begging for votes.
Tribal council Wednesday night reminded me of several national championship derbies in the last decade, with cutthroat votes deciding the winner: '90 Colorado and Georgia Tech splitting polls, '93 Florida State over Notre Dame, '94 Nebraska over Penn State, '97 Michigan and Nebraska splitting titles.
OK, enough references to Survivor.
My point is this: college football's champ is still decided by ballots. In the first two years of the BCS, we've been pretty lucky. The matchups in the two BCS championship games have made sense to most everybody and the winner was the only real choice for champ. But remember it took wild circumstances to create the orderly title game scenarios: unbeaten Kansas State and UCLA blowing big leads in their finales in '98, Virginia Tech's miracle rally at West Virginia and Nebraska's goal line fumble at Texas last fall.
|  | | David Allen and Kansas State have the talent to get to the Orange Bowl. |
Don't get lulled into thinking the BCS will always sort out things cleanly. And don't be surprised if there are three unbeaten teams left standing on bowl day. Or maybe just one, which would be equally messy.
Best chance of getting to Miami: Kansas State, Florida State, and Nebraska.
Reasons: KSU's velvety non-conference schedule and a home game with Nebraska. FSU enjoys softer than normal ACC competition and avoids the Swamp, with Florida visiting. Nebraska because... well, it's Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are the best team on paper and last year's thumping of K-State speaks loudly. But it's dull to just go with the preseason No. 1 and given the historical rarity of FSU's wire to wire title last season, we'll just say it won't happen in consecutive years.
JoePa saga
The season's biggest story is Joe Paterno's pursuit of Paul Bryant's all-time Division-I win record. He'll get it with Penn State's seventh win. Projection: it'll be at home against Illinois October 21st. There's not much suspense whether he'll get it, but it'll be a landmark moment because it's a record I don't think Joe will ever surrender.
Bobby Bowden would have to coach a few years beyond Paterno's eventual retirement (he will have to leave at some point) to pass him and no one else is inclined to last long enough and win enough games to catch him.
It's a shame, though, that in Paterno's season of triumph, he has to get his hands dirty with the most controversial off the field matter in his career. Rashard Casey could be brought up on very serious charges in September, stemming from the now-infamous alleged rumble with an off-duty cop outside a bar in Hoboken this spring. Or, as his attorneys and Paterno expect, the grand jury could dismiss the whole thing.
Joe has the power to make the call in this case. Penn State's policy is to stay out of it, unlike most universities.
I've read the opinions of those who say Paterno is selling out after decades of supposedly standing for the right things, that he's putting his team's Rose Bowl hopes ahead of everything by letting his only proven quarterback play. That in letting a man arrested on a serious charge remain a full team member, he's betrayed his principles and tarnished his image on the eve of his finest hour.
I weighed that. At first, the argument has merit. But I don't believe it. Paterno's track record just demands that you give him the benefit of the doubt. If he'd suspended Casey (the easy thing to do) and charges had been tossed out by the grand jury, he'd have been guilty of not standing behind a veteran player who was wrongly accused. That would have serious repercussions among the team.
On the other hand, if Casey IS indicted in New Jersey, Paterno can't wait for a trial to make his second tough decision. The obvious argument is that Casey, like any citizen, is innocent until proven guilty. Nothing's more basic in our country. Except that standard is rarely applied in this arena. If a grand jury listens to testimony and decides there is ample evidence that Casey did in fact punch and kick an off-duty police man lying on the ground in a racially charged fight to take it to trial, Paterno will face a very tough call.
Most often, a jury's verdict isn't needed to get a player accused of a serious crime suspended. Casey is most certainly innocent until proven otherwise, but the legal system doesn't guarantee him the right to play college football while the jury is out. Due process is a concept vital to the American way of life. But so is freedom of speech and freedom of the press. I don't see Paterno allowing players to say whatever they want without being sat down. And I sure don't see the press free to roam the Lions' practice field.
Plenty of players are suspended before juries decide whether they should be sent to jail or not. It'll be hard to justify Casey staying on the team if his case is sent to trial. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
|  | | Will Notre Dame's Bob Davie win enough games to be granted immunity from being voted out of Notre Dame? |
Hot seats
Nobody's butt is warmer than Bob Davie's as the 2000 season dawns. Notre Dame is the most compelling story out there: athletic program shamed by sanctions, a coaching staff hanging on by a thread, embarrassed players carrying a four game losing streak into a September murderer's row, and the greatest tradition in college football to reclaim. Throw in a rookie quarterback who is unproven to say the least
Predictions on the Irish's record at the end of the fearsome fivesome (Texas A&M, Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan State, and Stanford) range from 1-4 to 4-1. I heard Mike Gottfried predict a 4-1 start (losing only to the Huskers) the other night. That's too lofty in my book. Plus, the Irish need to beware of two road trips in the second half of the season: West Virginia and USC. Even with likely wins over Navy, Air Force, BC, and Rutgers, it's hard to imagine Notre Dame winning enough to allow Davie to achieve immunity and do-the-DuBose (the coaching world's ultimate survivor).
Oops, I promise that'll be the last reference to the TV show that I'm watching as I write this.
The Pac-10 is on the hot seat as well this season. The whole league is tired of having to come up with excuses for sub-par play. The excuses don't wash, anyway.
I'll say this, though: the Pac-10 must get props for challenging non-conference schedules. This is a partial list of opponents for the conference schools: Alabama, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Miami, Penn State,Texas, Colorado (twice), and Notre Dame. Only Arizona State, Washington State, and Oregon State have softened their non-league schedules.
In particular, USC's Paul Hackett is feeling heat. If not for Davie, he'd be the coach under the biggest microscope entering the season. That makes the Notre Dame-USC game one of the year's most intriguing.
Another in that category: Oregon at Wisconsin. Here's a great chance for the Pac-10 to win back a huge chunk of pride very quickly by beating the Big Ten co-favorite on the road. The Ducks are capable of it, with excellent speed all over the place. Keep an eye on that one September 9th.
The hot air of August
It always amuses me, the swirl of hot air that envelopes college football this time each year. The hype reminds me of the cheapness of talk.
There's plenty of talk in Clemson. Tommy Bowden told me it's gotten out of hand -- with everybody in the Tiger Paw nation expecting to roll into Tally at 9-0 for the Battle of the Bowdens II. Whoa. It could happen, but first, the Tigers have to prove they can handle the hype.
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I watched the Canes stone quit in the fourth quarter at Blacksburg last season, when they allowed themselves to be meekly dragged behind Corey Moore's woodshed. ” |
Miami is feeling good about it's chances. All the reports out of Canes' camp are glowing. But remember that the Canes have yet to prove they can hang with the studs on their schedule: 0-10 vs. FSU and Virginia Tech under Butch Davis. I watched the Canes stone quit in the fourth quarter at Blacksburg last season, when they allowed themselves to be meekly dragged behind Corey Moore's woodshed. The Canes have survived sanctions amazingly well and look great on paper. But Miami is back to being Miami only when they prove it. Until then, it's just talk. The Hokies and Noles both visit the Old Horseshoe in Little Havana. I can't wait.
Same issue at Georgia: prove you can run with the big dogs. Fact: Georgia is 1-7 versus Florida and Tennessee under Jim Donnan. Label UGA team to beat in the SEC East if you want. Base it on returning starters (10 are back from the league's worst-rated defense) and the expected great QB play of Quincy Carter.
But they've gotta prove it to me. The Vols and Gators feel the same way.
I'd label Wisconsin and Alabama flat overrated in most seasons. But there is a serious lack of known quantities entering 2000. Somebody has to be in the preseason top five.
I put so little credence in preseason polls that I won't bother telling you my current AP top ten.
Quick outs
I still can't believe Chris Weinke came back to play as a 28-year-old senior. Corso's Heisman pick has to be one of the unique stories in the sport's history. It's true, by the way, that he has been approached by FSU coeds -- who want to fix him up with their MOMS.
Heisman aside, my meaningless pre-vote now for the BEST player in college football: Jamar Fletcher, Wisconsin's amazing corner.
Contenders for the mythical title: Freddie Milons (Alabama WR), Dan Morgan (Miami LB), Michael Vick and Drew Brees.
After the Ricky Williams/ Ron Dayne era, it's wild to enter a season with the highest profile running backs playing for TCU (LaDainian Tomlinson), Maryland (LaMont Jordan), and Ole Miss (Deuce McAllister).
LaVell Edwards will have the rockiest farewell tour this side of the Smashing Pumpkins. BYU plays FSU in Jax, at Virginia and Syracuse, conference road games with Colorado State, Air Force, and Utah, and has a pesky Mississippi State at home. It'll be too bad if after decades of good service to BYU, Edwards goes out with a mediocre mark in 2000, but how will the Cougs avoid it?
That's it. Hope to see you from Blacksburg Sunday night on ESPN2, when Gameday serves as a pre-game show for the Hokies-Georgia Tech game.
Chris Fowler's column will run every Thursday.
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