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Wednesday, February 21, 2001
A big bubble across America's heartland




In the wake of the tragic plane crash that killed 10 members of the Oklahoma State basketball family, including two players, the Cowboys coaches and players spoke of accepting deaths and getting on with life.

If those coaches and players have not yet been able to fully focus on winning basketball games, the demands of the next 1½ weeks may provide the necessary elixir.

Oklahoma State (15-7 overall, 6-5 Big 12) has five conference games remaining, including four in an eight-day span beginning Wednesday night. With an RPI of No. 53 and at No. 52 in the Sagarin ratings, the Cowboys are perched precariously on the NCAA tournament bubble.

Victor Williams
If OSU can close out the regular season with four straight wins, Victor Williams (5) and Maurice Baker will have plenty to smile about.

Yet considering their next four opponents -- Texas A&M, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Baylor -- have a combined conference record of 12-35, it is conceivable the Cowboys could sweep all four. That would move them to 19-7 and 10-5 entering the regular-season finale at Oklahoma on March 3.

"There's no doubt we've expended a lot of emotion in the last month," Oklahoma State coach Eddie Sutton said. "Now whether the tank is dry, I can't answer that. I guess we'll find out."

While Iowa State, Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas appear to be locks for the NCAA tournament field, a loss in any of the next four games could essentially extinguish the Cowboys' hopes.

Coming off an overtime loss at home against Texas, it is imperative the Cowboys win Wednesday at A&M (9-16, 2-10). Although the Cowboys beat A&M by 12 points at home earlier this season, their last trip to College Station ended in a five-point loss. That was last season, when the Cowboys were ranked No. 12.

Oklahoma State enters this game 2-3 in its last five games; A&M is 3-2 during that span.

"Texas A&M is a ball club that finally has kind of found itself," Sutton said. "They've been playing much better in the last couple of weeks. And we certainly have respect for them.

"They are very physical and very athletic. And those kind of teams have kind of created problems for us."

Missouri's problems grew significantly Monday night when the Tigers (17-9, 8-5) lost at home to No. 15 Oklahoma. The Tigers are now 2-5 against ranked teams, though two of the losses came in overtime.

On Monday, Missouri built a 30-24 halftime lead but then shot 29 percent in the second half.

"It's just a tough loss," senior guard Brian Grawer said. "This is a game that we had in our grasp."

The Tigers (No. 39 RPI, No. 45 Sagarin) don't exactly have an easy stretch run. They should beat Baylor on Saturday in Columbia, but then have road games against Texas and Kansas. A 1-2 finish would leave them 18-11 and 9-7 heading into the Big 12 tournament.

Although those numbers aren't bad, the Tigers would be wise to avoid an early exit from the conference tournament.

One factor in the Tigers' favor is that guard Kareem Rush could return in time for the Big 12 tournament, if not the regular-season finale at Kansas. Rush, who has been out since suffering a thumb injury in a three-point loss at Oklahoma State on Feb. 5, still leads the conference in scoring (21.9 ppg).

Games of the Week
Michigan State at Penn State
Saturday

When these teams met on Jan. 3 in East Lansing, the Spartans fell behind by double digits in the first half before running Penn State out of the Breslin Center after halftime and winning by 25 points. With the Nittany Lions fighting for an NCAA berth, don't expect such a lopsided result. In fact, don't be shocked to see the Nittany Lions pull off the upset.
Oklahoma at Maryland
Saturday

An important non-conference clash in February? You bet. This game could have a bearing on seedings for the NCAA tournament. Oklahoma (21-5) has climbed to sole possession of second place in the Big 12. Maryland (17-9) seems to have finally gotten over that ugly loss to Duke.
Big Ten's Expanding Middle
As for the Big Ten, which is the only conference in the nation with every team ranked in the top 52 in schedule strength, it has a bigger NCAA bubble than you might think. After Illinois and Michigan State, both Final Four contenders, you'll find a quintet of teams (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Penn State and Iowa) with solid resumes but work remaining.

They've declared a state of emergency in Iowa City, where the Hawkeyes (17-8, 6-6) are falling apart.

Iowa (No. 28 RPI, No. 36 Sagarin) has gone 1-4 since guard Luke Recker (fractured knee cap) was sidelined. He could return for the Big Ten tournament but by then it could be too late.

No one needs to remind Iowa coach Steve Alford the selection committee doesn't fawn over teams that finish so poorly.

"Obviously, we are struggling and still struggling," Alford said after the Hawkeyes were drilled by Michigan State, 94-70, Sunday.

The Hawkeyes are tied for sixth place in the conference with Penn State and would be wise to win at least two of their final four regular-season games and then steal a victory in the Big Ten tournament. But the schedule doesn't make such a run easy.

After a home game against Purdue on Wednesday, the Hawkeyes play at Illinois and then play host to Penn State and Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes won by a point at Penn State, but lost by 13 at Wisconsin.

Speaking of Wisconsin, most analysts consider the Badgers (16-7, 7-5), a Final Four team a year ago, a lock for the field this season. The numbers would say as much: No. 15 in the RPI and No. 17 in the Sagarin ratings.

Nonetheless, acting head coach Brad Soderberg steadfastly believes his team must win at least one and perhaps two of its four remaining regular-season games and then do well in the conference tournament to assure itself an NCAA berth.

"I don't think 16 wins is good enough," he said. "I think we're a quality tournament team, but I don't know if that we're a tournament team if we don't win any games at the end of the season."

Wisconsin absolutely must win at home Wednesday against Minnesota, which won the teams' first meeting Jan. 6 in Minneapolis.

After that, the Badgers play at Indiana, where they haven't won since 1977, host Michigan State, which has beaten Wisconsin seven consecutive times, and then close the regular season at Iowa, which is fighting for its NCAA life.

Soderberg knows his team well enough to understand that it isn't conceivable for the Badgers to lose all four games -- or win all four.

"Our defense is solid just about every night," Soderberg said. "And I think we're better offensively.

"But we also walk such a fine line that it is possible we could lose our last four. You have the combination of a off-defensive night and a bad shooting night and anybody can beat us."

Indiana (16-11, 7-6) missed an opportunity to virtually lock up an NCAA berth Tuesday by losing at Michigan State, 66-57. A victory would have given the Hoosiers (No. 29 RPI, No. 30 Sagarin) a regular-season sweep of the defending national champions and would have made it difficult for the selection committee to ignore the Hoosiers.

Still, the Hoosiers have three winnable regular-season games left and barring a collapse should make the tournament, which would be quite an accomplishment for interim coach Mike Davis.

After a late surge that included victories over Michigan State, Iowa and Wisconsin, Ohio State is in solid position at 17-9 and 8-5. Despite an 18-point loss at Alabama last week, the Buckeyes could virtually assure themselves an NCAA bid by upsetting No. 4 Illinois Thursday in Columbus.

The Buckeyes (No. 35 RPI, No. 32 Sagarin) should be able to get past lowly Northwestern on Saturday, but winning at Penn State won't be easy. The Nittany Lions (16-7, 6-6) are playing well and beat the Buckeyes in Columbus earlier this season.

Can Penn State (No. 23 RPI, No. 27 Sagarin) secure its first NCAA bid since the 1995-'96 season? Yes, despite the fact they got off to a 3-5 Big Ten start. The Nittany Lions, who play at Northwestern on Wednesday night, have won four of their last five games. They began that streak with a thrilling 98-95 victory over Illinois and drilled Purdue by 21 points last week.

Purdue entered the game leading the Big Ten in three-point field-goal defense (.286) but allowed the Nittany Lions to hit 15 of 22 three-pointers (68.2 percent).

"If they shoot the ball that well at the NCAAs," Purdue coach Gene Keady said, "they're going to go a long way."

After playing Northwestern, they face three difficult tests -- Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State. Michigan State and Ohio State must travel to Happy Valley, though, where the Nittany Lions are 4-2 in conference games.

Around the Midwest
MAC Madness: The Mid-American Conference coaches were miffed that they didn't send two teams to the NCAA tournament last season. Well, they might find themselves in the same position this season.

Central Michigan, despite a loss to Kent State on Saturday, remains in solid position at 18-5 overall and 12-2 in the MAC West Division.

The Chippewas, who finished 6-23 last season, won at Purdue early in the season and appear to be the only team capable of receiving an at-large berth if they fail to win the conference tournament.

If MAC coaches hope to see two of their teams receive NCAA bids, their best hope is for Kent State (19-7, 12-3 MAC East) to win the conference tournament. Kent State would then receive the automatic berth and Central Michigan, barring an early upset in the conference tournament, could receive an at-large berth.

Why is Kent State so attractive? The Flashes played a difficult non-conference schedule with games against teams such as Nebraska, Xavier and California State-Northridge.

Deep in The Valley: Creighton, which is alone in first place in the Missouri Valley Conference, may be the best team among the mid-major conferences this season. (Folks at Butler might argue that point, though).

The Bluejays (20-6, 11-4) are No. 20 according to the RPI and No. 33 according to Sagarin. They have won seven consecutive games and enter their final three regular-season games with a one-game lead over Illinois St. (18-6, 10-5) and Bradley (15-9, 10-5).

Creighton should finish strong and win at least a share of the title. The Bluejays play at Northern Iowa (6-20, 3-12) tonight, at Drake (10-13, 6-8) on Saturday and at home against Southwest Missouri State (11-13, 7-8) on Monday.

Is coach Dana Altman, who has guided the Bluejays to three consecutive 20-victory seasons, satisfied? Hardly.

"We've still got a long way to go defensively," he said. "It's sad to be saying that here in mid-February, but defensively we make so many mistakes."

Perhaps someone should remind Altman his team is allowing 63.8 points per game, No. 1 in the MVC.

Jeff Potrykus of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.

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