Whe is the number '7' unlucky? On Selection Sunday.
After a Saturday that set the stage for some heated discussions in Indianapolis, ESPN.com projects six at-large bids still up for grabs. Iowa is the lone bubble team playing Sunday after advancing to the Big Ten championship. The rest have finished stating their cases and now must wonder if they did enough to dance.
Why six at-large bids and not 34? Well, 25 of those at-large bids are "locked up" by the six power conferences. Another three are projected to go to St. Joseph's, Cincinnati and Fresno State. That's 28 at-large invitations sealed and mailed out. The other five bids still need addresses.
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Bubble at a glance
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Taking out the 14 automatic bids accounted for by the one-bid conferences, here's how the NCAA Tournament picture looks to the 17 conferences hoping for multiple bids:
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Available spots
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51
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Automatic bids
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17
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At-large bids
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34
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Locks
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28
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Open spots
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6
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Note: With the addition of a 'play in' game this year, a total of 65 teams must be accounted for when figuring the open spots available this season.
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Who's the most likely to receive those coveted half dozen bids will be debated all day by the committee and fans. But one thing is for sure, only the Hawkeyes can play their way off the bubble at this point. Should Iowa win the automatic bid, it wouldn't help those below because Indiana would take the 29th at-large bid.
Who does ESPN.com like should Iowa lose? In no particular order, we still like the Hawkeyes, Penn State, Creighton, Xavier, Richmond and Missouri be invited. Alabama is a strong sixth, while Georgia, UConn and Villanova still have hope. Utah is a stretch, while UC Irvine figures to be the team leading the annual mid-major cry of "foul" on Missed Out Monday.
Charlotte took its fate out of the committee's hands by winning the CUSA's automatic bid. The 49ers weren't a strong bubble team and took an at-large bid away from the above group by beating Cincy in Saturday's final. The same can be said about Temple, which had a better profile than Charlotte, but still wasn't a "lock" until winning the A-10 title.
Remember, sometimes it isn't so much what a team does, but what others accomplish in another part of the country, that alters a team's standing heading into Selection Sunday.
Hawaii's WAC semfinal upset of regular-season champion Fresno State was potentially as damaging to Big East bubble teams Villanova and UConn -- not to mention Georgia -- as those teams losing in their own conference tournaments earlier this week. Temple winning the A-10 automatic bid isn't as damaging as it would have been if UMass had pulled off the week's biggest shocker.
These conference upsets may not always get a team into the tournament, but it sure does make those already out and watching back on their campus sweat a little more. How must Xavier, a first-round loser to George Washington in the A-10 tourney, feel right about now? Will the A-10 get three bids Sunday when just two weeks ago it was only guaranteed two.
As for the formula, remember there are 31 conferences with automatic bids. Of those, ESPN.com's projections show 18 will send just one school to the field of 64: America East, Big Sky, Big South, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, Mid-Continent, MEAC, MCC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt, TAAC and WCC.
Taking those 18 bids out of the equation leaves 13 conferences capable of collecting their 13 automatic bids, plus 34 at-large bids. Add it all up and there are 47 bids available, creating the 65 total number of teams eligible for the NCAA Tournament. But remember, the No. 65 and No. 64 ranked teams must play Tuesday, March 13 in Dayton, Ohio to earn a spot in the 64-team bracket.
But before we get to Selection Sunday and "play in" games, here is the analysis by conference of teams. Each conference page includes team-by-team analysis, with records, positives and negatives to help evaluate each team's chances as they stand heading into Selection Sunday.
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Atlantic Coast
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In: North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
Bubble:
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With Carolina and Duke playing Saturday for the automatic bid, the ACC counts only five against the total number of "open" spots and creates another at-large bid, which makes room for Georgia Tech. None of the current Yellow Jackets has ever been to the NCAA Tournament. That should change by the end of Sunday. The Yellow Jackets finished .500 in conference play and three wins over Virgina, a win over UCLA and a triumph over Kentucky make a 17-12 mark on paper much better by going inside those numbers. Wake Forest will likely get the sixth bid out of the ACC. Wake Forest finish 8-8 in the ACC and finished 19-10. All this should be good enough for one of six deserving bids out of the ACC, but check back for official documentation in 24 hours.
The Owls won their final seven games and No. 7 took the chance of its NCAA streak ending away. Temple is dancing for the 12th straight season, while the Musketeers are the A-10 team left sweating Sunday. The Musketeers may have done enough over the course of the regular season to garner an at-large bid. But what has happened during Championship Week makes their standing a little more shaky.
The first day of the Big East tournament cleared up a couple things. It didn't, however, clear up Connecticut's situation. The second day didn't help, as Villanova left its hopes in the committee's hands on Thursday by losing to top-seeded Boston College in the quarterfinals at Madison Square Garden. No two teams from the same conference look more alike than the Wildcats and Huskies. Both have been hurt, however, by upsets around the country. UConn has a 19-11 overall record, but only 18 wins in the eyes of the committee (Chaminade isn't Division I). Villanova finished 18-12. Both finished 8-8 in the Big East. Each now must wait until Selection Sunday to see if either gets the fifth at-large bid out of the Big East. UConn has the impressive wins over Boston College and Notre Dame in February. Villanova has a 2-0 record against the Huskies during the Big East season. Worse yet for UConn, nine of the Huskies' 18 wins came against teams with RPIs of 151 or higher. A soft non-conference schedule could haunt UConn. Still, the Huskies were 6-2 in February.
The Big Ten title game should get great ratings in cities who's teams are on the bubble. Why. If Iowa wins, the number of available bids is cut by one. Indiana will get the the at-large bid Iowa hasn't clinched. But the Hawkeyes have beaten Northwestern, Ohio State and Penn State without Luke Recker. The Hawkeyes were 17-4 before Recker's injury, including a win over Illinois. Recker is doubtful for Sunday, but probable for the NCAAs -- if the Hawks win Sunday or get an at-large bid. As for Penn State, will the committee take the good with the bad when it comes to Penn State? Sure, they beat Michigan State on Friday. But they beat Michigan by two on Thursday and lost to Iowa by 20. A good win and bad loss all in less than 24 hours.
With OU and Texas in the title game, it opens up another at-large bid. Whether or not that goes to Missouri is still a big question. Missouri got to 19 wins on Thursday night by beating Texas A&M. The really good news, however, was Kareem Rush's performance. In his second game back after injuring ligaments in his right thumb, Rush scored 16 points and made 4 of 6 three-pointers. The Tigers fell short against Oklahoma in Friday's quarterfinals where a victory would have all but seal an at-large bid. Rush again was sharp, scoring 17 points in the first half alone. Missouri (19-13) still is in good shape if history means anything. In the first four years of the Big 12, only one team (Nebraska 1999) has had a winning record in the conference and not made it to the NCAA tournament.
UC Irvine lost to Pacific in the semifinals and after 25 wins this one loss may keep the Anteaters out of the NCAA Tournament. The Big West isn't a two-bid conference, but UC Irvine will be watching closely Sunday. Utah State blew its at-large chances with a road loss at Boise State in the last week of the regular season, but now is in line to get the automatic bid Saturday night without the Zots around. The Aggies' only way into the dance is by winning the Big West tourney championship and automatic bid.
The ultimate at-large team, the Spiders weren't eligible for the Colonial's automatic bid because they're leaving for the Atlantic 10 next season. Richmond wasn't invited to play in the Colonial's postseason tournament, but they may still get invited to the dance after beating George Mason by 20 in the final week of the regular season to finish atop the Colonial standings. The Spiders finished with 21 wins. But that's it. Will it be enough?
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Conference USA
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In: Charlotte (automatic bid), Cincinnati
Bubble:
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Charlotte (21-10) took another bubble team's bid on Saturday, upsetting the Bearcats in the championship game. The Bearcats are still safely in the field of 65, winning nine of their last 12. The 49ers, however, certainly hurt Southern Mississippi's shots at an at-large nod. Despite a 22-8 mark, it's difficult to believe the Eagles would get a third bid out of a balanced CUSA.
Well, now we'll find out if the Bluejays are indeed worthy of an at-large bid after being upset by Indiana State in the conference semifinals. The Jays won the final 10 regular season games to claim the MVC title. Their overall numbers suggest the Valley will get two teams in the dance. But Creighton losing five MVC games leaves some questions unanswered.
And then there was one on the bubble. BYU is back in the NCAA Tournament after beating New Mexico in the MWC title game. Along the way, the Cougars popped Wyoming's bubble Friday night in semifinals, 77-66. Utah lost to New Mexico in the semifinals and are left on shaky ground. Wyoming, Utah and BYU all shared the regular-season banner.
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Pac-10
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In: Arizona, California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
Bubble:
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The Pac-10 will send five teams to NCAA Tournament with an average RPI of 12.3.
"It's a done deal." That's what Nolan Richardson said Saturday after his Hogs solidified their NCAA Tournament credentials by completing a 5-0 run through LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama and Georgia -- the latest coming Saturday. But, while the Hogs got off the bubble this weekend, the Tide couldn't keep a bid that looked secure two weeks ago. Four straight losses heading into the SEC tourney made beating Vandy a must. Losing to Florida didn't exactly hurt, but a win Friday would have been nice. The Dawgs, meanwhile, look like the the odd-team out in the SEC. Ironically, the team who played the toughest schedule could pay the ultimate price. Losing to LSU in the first round may be the final nail in the coffin. Despite a 9-7 conference mark, with a 16-14 record, a deep SEC tourney run appeared to be Georgia's last chance at an at-large bid.
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ALSO SEE
Katz: Plenty for NCAA committee to consider
Katz: Chasing No. 1 seeds
Katz: Conference challenges await bubble teams
Bubble breakdown: Last teams in
Message board: Who's on the bubble?
Katz: Bubble isn't a bad word in Philly
Bracketology: 12 steps to an at-large bid
AUDIO VIDEO
 ESPN.com's Andy Katz previews the teams "on the bubble" around college basketball.
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 ESPN.com's Andy Katz breaks down the key games heading into the conference tournaments.
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What teams are playing their way into the NCAA tournament? ESPN.com's Andy Katz weighs in.
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