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Friday, January 25
Updated: February 1, 3:00 PM ET
 
Watching the Big West go bust

By Ron Buck
ESPN.com

Thank you, ESPN.com users. You've taken this week's toughest decision out of our hands -- voting Utah State off the Cinderella Watch.

Aggies fans, however, indicated last week through emails the Ags didn't belong the Watch, anyway. Not with an RPI of 22. Well, a third Big West loss to Cal-State Fullerton doubled Utah State's RPI to 44 heading into this weekend, so maybe they were right for the wrong reasons.

Click here to read last week's Cinderella comments from Utah State fans and others, and view the results of the Cinderella Watch poll, which saw the Aggies earn just 7.8 percent of over 10,000 votes.

Utah State's dismissal opened the door for Big West rival UC Irvine. Or did it? The Anteaters also lost on the same night as the Aggies, falling to Cal-State Fullerton in overtime, to see their RPI fall to No. 85 heading into the weekend. With so many other worthy Cinderella contenders, we couldn't put either Big West team in the Watch this week with a clear conscious.

So, without a Big West team to Watch this week. We turn to the WAC, which like the MAC, seems filled with Cinderella contenders -- including last year's NIT champion Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane were added to this week's watch, setting up a Clash of Cinderellas on Saturday when Hawaii comes into Tulsa.

We've also expanded the Watch to eight teams going forward, which for those who've followed the Watch over the years know isn't really expanding. Contraction just doesn't seem to be working in the Cinderella Watch, either.

For those still new to the Watch, here is how it works. ESPN.com picks eight teams each week leading up to the NCAA Tournament. Teams can move off the Watch for three reasons:

1. Promotion: The team moves from being a Cinderella story to a favorite. Call it the "Gonzaga Rule".

2. Demotion: The team plays so poorly its status of making the tourney is in jeopardy. You can't be a Cinderella if you don't go to the dance.

3. The poll: In the spirit of democracy, the lowest vote-getter each week will be removed from the Watch, no questions asked.

But be sure to follow along each week, these lists tend to change quite frequently. And, as always, we want your thoughts, compliments or gripes about this week's Watch. Click here to submit an e-mail. We'll post the best user responses with each week's Cinderella Watch.

Here is this week's list of teams we're watching. The RPI rankings are from Jan. 25 and team records are through Jan. 24 games.

BALL STATE
Record
13-5 Overall
6-1 MAC
RPI No. 32
Marquee Wins Kansas, 93-91
UCLA, 91-73
The Cardinals held fast atop the MAC's West Division with a pair of wins over teams it should have beaten. This week also features two sub-.500 teams in the MAC (Miami, Ohio and Marshall), but both games are on the road. It can't afford to stub its toe, like Bowling Green did at Akron in OT. The Falcons now find themselves a game behind three 6-1 teams in conference play. One of those is Ohio, which still has two meetings with the Falcons and one with the Cardinals. Kent State is the other, which has already beaten Ball State. Like we said last week, the MAC is never easy to figure out. But as long as the Cardinals keep winning in the MAC, those Maui wins will keep them ahead of the pack in the MAC when it comes to at-large consideration.

HAWAII
Record
16-3 Overall
7-1 WAC
RPI No. 55
Marquee Wins Georgia, 54-44
Wisconsin, 60-57
Fresno State, 83-73
OK, so the Warriors stumble as soon as they touched down on the mainland in San Jose. And no, we didn't fail to see Fresno State has a better RPI than both Tulsa and Hawaii. It's just Fresno State's fans barked last season that their Bulldogs were too big to be on this Watch. And so far this season, that bark has been bigger than their team's bite. Not sure if Hawaii can beat Tulsa in its own building on Saturday. Then again, we watched the Warriors celebrate so much in the Reynolds Center last season that we're not putting anything past them, yet. Riley Wallace's club went to Tulsa and won three straight in the WAC tournament -- beating the Hurricane in the title game -- to get into the Big Dance. One win Saturday could be just as valuable to the Warriors' season.

PEPPERDINE
Record
12-6 Overall
5-0 WCC
RPI No. 48
Marquee Wins at UCLA, 85-78
at USC, 78-77
Gonzaga, 88-79
Gonzaga is now trying to avoid Cinderellas in March. And one could be the team that knocked 'em off last week in the West Coast Conference. The Waves have been something like the Malibu surf this season -- up and down depending on the moon. Just when Pepperdine looks like a giant killer in -- beating both USC and UCLA -- it drops three in a row (albeit two of those were to tourney-bound teams Oregon and Georgia) and four of six stumbling into the WCC. But beating the Zags at home was a good way to get back on the NCAA radar and the marquee wins will go a long way on Selection Sunday if the Waves don't crash too early in the WCC tournament.

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Record
17-3 Overall
7-1 MVC
RPI No. 58
Marquee Win Indiana, 72-60
The Salukis hold off Creighton for this spot, at least for another week. But a troublesome trip to Northern Iowa (ask the Hawkeyes) on Saturday and then Evansville (are they still Division I?) next week are the only things standing between the first of two meetings between these two Missouri Valley Conference favorites. Both are 7-1 in the conference. The Salukis lone loss came at Wichita State, while the Bluejays fell at Northern Iowa.

TEXAS TECH
Record
14-3 Overall
3-2 Big 12
RPI No. 16
Marquee Wins Oklahoma State, 94-70
A year ago, we had Baylor out of the Big 12 on the early Watch. If you remember, the Bears started 12-0 before the losing six of their first eight conference games and winding up 17-11 and in the NIT. We don't see any such collapse by the Red Raiders, who no longer are just a sideshow in Lubbock. And yes, a Big 12 team can be a Cinderella. Did you see this coming? Andy Ellis and Andre Emmett were part of last season's 9-19 campaign. Now, combined with Kasib Powell, the trio is averaging 51 points and 21 rebounds a game. While we still can't see Tech finishing much above .500 in conference play, that will certainly be enough to get The General and his new troops into the Big Dance. Bob Knight? Cinderella? So, who plays the role of the evil stepmother?

TULSA
Record
15-3 Overall
6-1 WAC
RPI No. 43
Marquee Wins NONE
Tulsa is the first of three new teams on the Watch this week. No excuse for "overlooking" the defending NIT champions last week, but without a marquee win, the Golden Hurricane is likely going to have to emerge out of the WAC with the automatic bid. Tulsa gets a second chance at doing exactly that with the postseason tournament on its own court again this season. Hawaii, which beat Tulsa on its own court in last year's WAC tournament, comes to town Saturday. Losing won't be the end all for Tulsa, but it really needs a win over a potential tourney team (Oral Roberts doesn't count). It's 0-for-3 so far -- losing to Arkansas, at Kansas (by eight) and at Fresno State (by one).

VERMONT
Record
15-4 Overall
8-1 American East
RPI No. 141
Marquee Wins
None
Biggest shock of the week was seeing the Catamounts survive the popular vote. I guess everyone loves an underdog. Sorry to report Vermont's 12-game winning streak came to an end in Hartford, which shut down T.J. Sorrentine in a 78-65 upset. Again, it'll take an automatic bid out of the American East to get the 'Cats into the Big Dance. The American East tournament's championship game is played on the highest seed's home court, which means Vermont (which is tied in the loss column with Boston U.) will likely need to beat the Terriers at home to get that home-court advantage on March 9.

WESTERN KENTUCKY
Record
17-3 Overall
7-1 Sun Belt
RPI No. 47
Marquee Wins Kentucky, 64-52
N.M. State, 83-67
No Chris Marcus, no problem. Western Kentucky has survived without its 7-footer, but beating Arkansas-Little Rock proved the Hilltoppers are special with or without their big man. In what should have been a battle of the conference's two best post players, the 'Toppers instead relied on team principles to beat 6-10 Jake Yancey and the Trojans. Yancey was held to just four points and three rebounds, while foul trouble kept him on the bench for half of the Hilltoppers' 95-85 victory. As a result, Western Kentucky actually out-rebounded the Trojans 29-28 and led 45-27 at halftime behind the sharp-shooting Patrick Sparks, who made 4 of 5 from behind the arc and finished with 24 points. As a team, WKU made 11-of-22 3-pointers and shot 59 percent from the floor. A trip to Little Rock awaits on Feb. 7, but by then, Marcus should be back patrolling the paint. Look out!

Ron Buck is the college basketball editor at ESPN.com.






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