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It seems like we've been watching Cinderella stories develop since the opening tip back in November.
You won't find Arizona on any Cinderella Watch, but the Wildcats started the trend in Madison Square Garden, becoming something of a Cinderella story in winning the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic by knocking off Maryland and Florida on consecutive nights.
A week later, Ball State grabbed national headlines with back-to-back victories over Kansas and UCLA in Hawaii, before falling to Duke in the Maui Invitational title game. While the shine on the Cardinals has faded a bit, you will find Mr. Letterman's alma mater listed among the six teams we'll track each week leading up the Big Dance.
Western Kentucky stunned Kentucky at Rupp Arena on opening night; Davidson did the same to UNC on Tobacco Road; Pepperdine beat both USC and UCLA; Hawaii kept sending teams back to the mainland with Ls; Butler wound up winning the mythical "Indiana State Championship" with five victories over in-state rivals -- including Big Ten leader Indiana in the Hoosiers Classic. The Bulldogs even had some folks in these parts talking undefeated season after a 13-0 start. But alas, losses were on the Horizon, but so too should be another trip to the NCAA Tournament.
And that's what the Cinderella Watch is all about -- projecting the teams in January and through February who can do some damage come March. Some of the teams above won't be on our first list, while a few teams you may want to start paying more attention to are found below. Either way, the list is sure to change as we get closer to Championship Week and Selection Sunday.
For those still new to the Watch, here is how it works. ESPN.com picks six teams each week leading up to the NCAA Tournament. Teams can move off the Watch for three reasons:
1. Promotion: The team moves from being a Cinderella story to a favorite. Call it the "Gonzaga Rule".
2. Demotion: The team plays so poorly its status of making the tourney is in jeopardy. You can't be a Cinderella if you don't go to the dance.
3. The poll: In the spirit of democracy, the lowest vote-getter each week will be removed from the Watch, no questions asked.
Last season, Georgia State could be found on this list in January and then we watched the Panthers beat Wisconsin in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. That first month also saw such teams as Baylor, Austin Peay and Toledo make our early Watch lists, only to be found watching the Big Dance from home. So, needless to say, this not an exact science and there is plenty of room for debate.
But be sure to follow along each week, these lists tend to change quite frequently. And, as always, we want your thoughts, compliments or gripes about this week's Watch. Click here to submit an e-mail. We'll post the best user responses with each week's Cinderella Watch.
Here is is the first list of teams we're watching. The RPI rankings are from Jan. 17 and team records are through Jan. 18 games.
The Cinderella Watch loves UC Irvine. The Anteaters hold a special place in our hearts. But, even with a win over the Aggies on Utah State's own court and a perfect 6-0 record in the Big West, we can't in good faith put Irvine on this week's Watch after looking at all the numbers. And we won't take up another spot on the Watch by placing both Utah State and UC Irvine on the same Watch. So, like last season, these two Big West bullies will have to fight it out over the long haul to see who gets invited into the Dance. And no, both won't get invites. Trust us. Last season, Irvine and the Aggies split two meetings, the Anteaters won the regular-season title, but were left watching the Aggies upset Ohio Sate in the first round of the NCAA Tournament after Irvine lost to Pacific in the Big West tournament. This year, Utah State picked up a couple quality wins (at Utah, BYU) before the Big West season in case it slipped up again -- which it did at Cal Poly even before losing to the Anteaters on Jerry Green's last-second shot. The two marquee non-conference wins don't figure to keep the Aggies in the committee's good graces too long if they keep losing in the Big West. But, for now, the at-large possibilities are there for Utah State and not Irvine. Thus, the Aggies get this spot. Next meeting between these two comes in Irvine on Feb. 9.
Is there a tougher conference to pick NCAA teams from than the MAC? Come on, we had Central Michigan in our Watch all season a year ago only to see the Chippewas stumble in the MAC tournament and not even get a sniff at an at-large bid. Heck, the Chippewas didn't even get invited to the NIT. But, at this point, Ball State looks like a safe pick with a profile that the selection committee can't ignore. Are the Cardinals living off their Maui Miracles a little too much? Maybe. But they are one of four MAC teams with early 4-1 marks, and barring a complete collapse, Ball State should get the second bid if not the automatic ticket to the Dance. Yes, the Cardinals lost at Kent State in their only regular-season meeting, but don't be surprised to see the Golden Flashes (No. 69 RPI; 10-5) or Bowling Green (No. 45 RPI; 12-2) find its way into a future Watch or two. The MAC struggles to get two teams into the Dance each year, so should the Cardinal need that at-large nod, Kent or Bowling Green would likely need the automatic trip or risk having what happened to Central Michigan last season happen to them this season.
Unless you live in paradise, it's a good chance you haven't been paying attention to the Rainbow Warriors. Well, let us fill you in. Hawaii has steam rolled through the first third of its WAC schedule, but has left the Islands just once for a two-game trip to the mainland that saw it win a pair of two-point games at Louisiana Tech and Boise State. So, the final verdict is out on the 'Bows, who embark on an 11-day trip to the mainland for three road games. Still, victories near the beach over Georgia and Wisconsin, not to mention Fresno State, put Hawaii on Watch radar if not the selection committee's screen yet. And those wins over Georgia and Wisconsin came without Predrag Savovic, who sat out the Warriors' first seven games serving an NCAA suspension. He's averaged 19.4 points a game in his nine games since returning. Last season, Riley Wallace's club went to Tulsa and won three straight in the WAC tournament to get into the Big Dance, where they fell to Syracuse in the opening round. It's not out of the question to think the Warriors can get the job done on the road again this season long before either tournament.
The world didn't end in Bowling Green, Ky., on Dec. 2, 2001. (a.k.a. The day Chris Marcus' foot was placed in a cast). And, who knows? Maybe the Hilltoppers will be even more dangerous come tourney time because of what they've achieved without their 7-foot safety blanket playing the past six weeks. With Chris Marcus missing the past 13 games, and after losing to Vanderbilt in the first game without him, the Hilltoppers have run off 11 wins in 12 outings -- losing at South Alabama by three. Marcus is expected to return to practice next week and could be back in the Hilltoppers' lineup by early February. But, with or without Marcus, Western Kentucky is the class of the Sun Belt, and his eminent return to the middle only means the 'Toppers are still that feared team that knocked off Kentucky in Rupp Arena to open everyone's eye. Three players besides Marcus are averaging over 10 points a game -- Derek Robinson (11.9), David Boyden (10.9) and Mike Wells (10.4) -- while two others are just under 10 ppg (Patrick Sparks and Todor Pandov). Do the math, and that makes a starting lineup of double-digit scorers who make this team a very dangerous double-digit seed in March.
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SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
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 Record
15-3 Overall
5-1 MVC
RPI
No. 57
Marquee Win
Indiana, 72-60
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The Missouri Valley Conference as a whole has a couple big-time wins. Northern Iowa over Iowa comes to mind. So does Creighton's split with the Hilltoppers. The Salukis have a biggie over Indiana, but their loss to Illinois on a neutral court (Las Vegas) gives us hope they could be very dangerous if they survive the MVC. SIU's only conference stumble came at Witchita State -- the same team that lost by a bucket to then-unbeaten Oklahoma State in Stillwater. So losing on the Shockers' court isn't really one. And, like the MAC above, this spot could easily be occupied by a different MVC team before we reach March.
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VERMONT
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Record
14-3 Overall
5-0 American East
RPI
No. 125
Marquee Wins
None
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Ignore the RPI. This spot isn't about at-large bids. And as far as marquee wins go? Well, with a strength of schedule of 306, the Catamounts aren't playing much in the way of competition. But the new American East Beasts (thanks to the departure of last year's top three teams: Hofstra, Delware and Drexel to the CAA) aren't to be taken lightly. After a 2-3 start, Vermont has run off 12 straight wins and don't figure to drop another game until March. Joe Public will likely vote Vermont off this list, but take into account the Catamounts have never been the NCAAs -- or the NIT for that matter. Talk about a Cinderella story!
Ron Buck is the college basketball editor at ESPN.com.
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