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| | Friday, March 10 | ||||||
| March 9
The Cincinnati Reds will be a popular choice to win the NL Central. With Ken Griffey Jr. in the three hole, they should score plenty of runs. The question mark, as everybody points to, is the starting rotation. Let's check in on this group, listing 1999 numbers:
Pete Harnisch: 16-10, 3.68 ERA, 1.98 IP Harnisch matched his career high in wins, although his overall numbers were a slight decline from 1998 (3.14 ERA). Of course, he has battled injury problems throughout his career and pitched through shoulder soreness last season. If he stays healthy, he's a good bet to repeat his 1999 performance. But that's a big if.
Neagle's ERA was his highest since his first year as a starter in 1994. Neagle started the year on the disabled list with shoulder problems and then tried to pitch through them: through his first six starts he was 0-3 with an 8.17 ERA. However, once he get healthy he went 9-2, 3.13 over his final 13 starts. Neagle is a good bet to pitch better than last year and return to his 1988 form (3.55 ERA). Steve Parris: 11-4, 3.50, 128.2 IP Parris began the year at Indianapolis and pitched extremely well in 21 starts after his recall. He had also pitched well in 1998 (3.73 ERA). The biggest question is if he can maintain that productivity over a full season. Parris doesn't throw hard, so scouts will always be skeptical about his ability to get major league hitters out. But it appears he's turned the corner and should have a solid season. Ron Villone: 9-7, 4.23 ERA, 142.2 IP Released by the Indians in spring training, Villone eventually moved into the Reds rotation and was overpowering at times, allowing just one hit in four different starts. At age 30, has the former No. 1 pick of the Mariners found himself? Friends, that is an impossible question to answer. His track record says he's unlikely to match last year's success, but he could do better. The fifth starter is likely to fall into the hands of Mark Portugal, at least to start the season. All in all, you have a rotation where only Harnisch pitched as many as 150 innings last year and only Neagle is a good bet to pitch better than a year ago. Is it realistic to expect all four guys to pitch at least 180 innings and to pitch well? Probably not. Beyond the rotation, the Reds bullpen has some question marks as well. Keeping in mind that the bullpen was the team's MVP last year -- when it went 33-23 with a 3.36 ERA, 55 saves and the most innings pitched in the NL -- it seems unlikely it can match 1999's performance. Overall, the Reds allowed 711 runs, the fourth-fewest in the NL. We'll say this: if they finish fourth in the league in runs allowed again, they'll win the NL Central. Injury update Brewers second baseman Ron Belliard had a promising rookie season, hitting .295 and showing excellent plate discipline with a .379 on-base percentage. Unfortunately, Belliard disclolated his thumb making a diving catch of a foul popup on Wednesday. The severity of the injury was not immediately known, but Belliard could miss up to six weeks. "I think it popped," first baseman Sean Berry told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "I saw some blood and I also saw something that looked white." Let's hope Belliard recovers quickly, as he's one of the few bright spots on the Brewers. If he's not ready for the start of the season, the Brewers have utility infielders Lou Collier and Luis Lopez available. Either could play shortstop or second base, with Mark Loretta moving to second. Position battles Expos rookies Peter Bergeron and Milton Bradley -- both excellent prospects (ESPN.com's John Sickels ranks Bradley No. 25 and Bergeron No. 28 in his "Stats Minor League Scouting Notebook 2000" -- are fighting for the starting center field job, with Bergeron the early favorite. Bergeron singled, walked and stole a base in Wednesday's win. He's 4-for-4 stealing and has made two exceptional defensive plays. Bergeron has the skills to develop into a topflight leadoff hitter. Bradley has more power (.526 slugging percentage at Double-A last year) and a better arm, but may need time at Triple-A to work on controlling his temper (he was suspended last season for spitting gum on an ump and punched out another ump in the Maryland Fall League in 1998). If Rondell White is traded, both could make the team, with Bergeron moving to left field due to his weaker arm. Back to the Reds. Dante Bichette. He's been a great fantasy player, putting up big numbers year after year in Colorado. But how will he do in Cincinnati? Over the last five years, Bichette has hit .359 with a .645 slugging percentage at home, .273 with a .426 slugging mark on the road. The numbers seem to indicate he'll hit closer to .273 this year than the .298 he hit last year. His home runs (34) and RBI (133) are also likely to drop significantly. He's also 36 years old. Of course, everyone also predicted a big drop when Andres Galarraga went to Atlanta. And Ellis Burks went to San Francisco. And Eric Young went to Los Angeles. Here's our little theory: Playing in Coors Field turns you into a completely different hitter. Because breaking pitches don't break as much, pitchers are forced to throw more fastballs. Knowing that, Rockies hitters become more aggressive hitters at home -- a style that works perfectly fine at Coors. However, they are unable to adjust their hitting approach on the road, making them even worse than they should be. After leaving Colorado, the hitters return to a more "normal" style of hitting and thus their previously inferior road hitting stats improve. We still say Bichette will hit .273 with 18 home runs. | ALSO SEE Previous Rights (and Wrongs) of Spring ESPN.com's spring training 2000 coverage Exhibition roundup: Sosa sends two out of park for Cubs | ||||||