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For today's installment, ESPN.com columnist Rob Neyer reports on John Smoltz:
Injuries are a part of the game. Still, this one disheartens me. Aside from Tim Wakefield, the knuckleball is practically extinct in the major leagues, yet John Smoltz had the courage to experiment with the unpredictable pitch.
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Rumor Central
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No city is better at starting rumors than the Big Apple. The latest gem from the New York Daily News has the Mets and Mariners "discussing" a Rickey Henderson-for-Brett Tomko deal.
And you know what? This actually makes a little sense. Since Lou Piniella is unlikely to consider hitting Mike Cameron leadoff (as Jack McKeon) did, the Mariners need a leadoff hitter more desperately than Bill Bradley needs a personality. Brian Hunter? Please. No Mariner fan should have to sit through another season of his .280 on-base percentage at the top of the order -- or anywhere else in the order for that matter. The Mariners currently have six starters, so there is room to deal Tomko.
The Mets should be concerned about a rotation that includes two guys named Bobby Jones, one of whom is coming off injury problems and one of whom isn't too good. So, Tomko would slide nicely into the fourth or fifth slot.
Of course, there is a downside to Henderson -- no way will he repeat the season he had last year, when he hit .315. Still, he would get on base and score a lot of runs in front of A-Rod and friends.
The problem for the Mets is, who plays left field? Benny Agbayani? Melvin Mora? Either one would join Darryl Hamilton and Derek Bell to form an outfield without much firepower.
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In his last regular-season start of 1999, Smoltz unveiled his knuckler against the Marlins, throwing eight of them in seven innings. He pitched seven strong innings and one of his season-high 11 strikeouts came on a knuckleball to Kevin Millar. In his first spring-training start of 2000, Smoltz threw more than 20 knuckleballs in less than two innings. Why? Ironically, because the knuckler put less stress on his elbow than does the slider. Maybe he should have attempted the switch a few years ago.
What is the impact of Smoltz's injury, aside from the future of the knuckleball as a major league pitch? Obviously, the Braves will miss a pitcher who's 28-11 over the last two seasons. But those numbers tell another story, the story of a pitcher who hasn't always been healthy.
Smoltz has made only 54 starts those last two seasons, so the Braves are used to getting along without him. Bruce Chen, who struggled last year but still projects as a decent pitcher, is now virtually assured of a rotation slot. And the versatile Terry Mulholland takes the No. 5 spot. The bullpen still includes John Rocker, Kevin McGlinchy, Mike Remlinger, Rudy Seanez and Kerry Ligtenberg. True, Rocker has his obvious baggage and Seanez and Ligtenberg are coming off injuries, but those are five good relievers if healthy.
Things could get dicey, however, because for the first time in a long time, Atlanta doesn't have much pitching talent at the upper levels of their farm system. If Chen falters or somebody else gets hurt, the Braves are in trouble.
Injury update
Nomar Garciaparra should make his spring debut on Saturday. He has yet to play after spraining a ligament in his right knee in a fielding drill on Feb. 25.
"I'm feeling good," Garciaparra said to Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal-Bulletin and ESPN.com. "I'm taking it slow. I haven't tested it too much laterally, but I've been hitting, running a bit and working out."
Garciaparra won't travel with the squad that heads to the Dominican Republic for two games against the Astros over the weekend.
While the injury isn't serious, it is a reminder of Garciaparra's minor injury problems the past two years, during which he missed 46 games. By comparison, Derek Jeter missed only 17 games over that span.
McAdam also reports that Bret Saberhagen has re-adjusted his timetable with a goal of returning in May instead of the start of the season.
"My arm is kind of weak now, and I've got to build it up," Saberhagen said.
Position battles
With Scott Elarton unlikely to begin the season in Houston's rotation, there is a spot open after Jose Lima, Shane Reynolds and Octavio Dotel. Chris Holt is the likely No. 4 starter with Dwight Gooden and rookie Wade Miller fighting for the fifth spot.
Gooden pitched two scoreless innings against the Indians on Tuesday and has retired all 12 batters he's faced this spring. Houston has been impressed that seven of the outs have come on ground balls, which could prove to be important in Enron Field.
Miller has a 95-mph fastball/slider combination, but his Triple-A numbers from last year (4.38 ERA), suggest he could use a little time in middle relief before heading into the rotation.
Fantasy corner
We've been hearing a lot about Fernando Vina lately. Wednesday's USA Today has a story that trumpets Vina as perhaps a bigger offseason acquisition for the Cardinals than the pitching troika of Pat Hentgen, Andy Benes and Darryl Kile.
But why all the hype? Yes, Vina had a nice 1998, when he hit .311 with a .386 on-base percentage, scored 101 runs and made the All-Star team.
However, look at his OBP's since 1995: .327, .342, .312, .386, .339. Doesn't it appear that Vina's true level of ability is closer to his .350 career mark than the .386 he posted in his career year? Also, he turns 31 in April and is coming off knee problems -- yet USA Today describes him as a "speedster."
Hmm, his career high is 22 steals in '98 -- and he got caught 16 times. Yes, if Vina stays healthy he should score 100 runs batting in front of Big Mac, but don't expect him to repeat his overall numbers of 1998.
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ALSO SEE
Braves' Smoltz out for season, needs elbow surgery
ESPN.com's spring training 2000 coverage
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