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| | Friday, January 14 | ||||||||||
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Record: 74-88, 21st overall Payroll: $48.0 million, 15th overall Runs scored: 710, 15th in NL Runs allowed: 781, 6th in NL What went right? Utility man Phil Nevin wound up winning the job at third base, and enjoyed a better season than Ken Caminiti, the man he replaced. The pitching staff did well enough, led by starters Andy Ashby (14-10, 3.80) and Sterling Hitchcock (12-14, 4.11). Oh, and while Trevor Hoffman didn't quite duplicate his amazing 1998 season, he did record 40 saves in 43 chances. What went wrong? The offense completely collapsed. Outfielders Tony Gwynn and Reggie Sanders both played well enough, but missed significant time with injuries. First baseman Wally Joyner also spent plenty of the time on the DL, and was awful when he did play. Ruben Rivera, handed the job in center field when Steve Finley got traded, hit 23 home runs but could manage only a .295 on-base percentage, and struck out 143 times in 411 at-bats. Thus, in the space of one season the Padres went from eighth to 15th in National League scoring. (Granted, Qualcomm Stadium is one of the best pitcher's parks in the league.) In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. Signing marginal players to long-term contracts. Prior to the 1999 season, the Padres gave (1) catcher Carlos Hernandez $6.5 for three years, and (2) shortstop Chris Gomez $7.8 million for three years. Also, during the heady days of the 1998 campaign, the club extended Wally Joyner's contract through the 2000 season, at more than $3 million per season. Hernandez isn't much better than any number of Triple-A catchers, and missed all of 1999 with a ruptured Achilles' tendon. Gomez and Joyner both spent much of the season on the DL, and neither contributed much at the plate when they did play. And the Padres are, pending any trades, obligated to all three in 2000. It's not that the Padres should have re-signed any of these players to long-term deals. They lost Greg Vaughn, Ken Caminiti and Steve Finley, but all are aging and the Padres' budget simply didn't have room for them. But signing marginal players to multi-year deals has left the club with little room to maneuver as it attempts to rebuild. 2. Speaking of multi-year contracts, the Padres made a terrible decision late in the 1998 season, when they claimed lefty reliever Randy Myers off waivers from Toronto. At the time, Myers was a moderately effective closer for the Blue Jays, and he was signed through 2000 at about $6 million per season. The Padres didn't need a closer (they had Trevor Hoffman), but they grabbed Myers because they were worried the Braves would go after him. San Diego figured they could use another lefty in the pen, and they also figured they could trade Myers after the season. Unfortunately, once Myers came to San Diego it was discovered that he lacked arm strength. He pitched only 14 innings in the regular season, then three more in the postseason. The Padres were never able to trade Myers and his salary, and an injury kept him from pitching even a single inning in 1999. Worse, San Diego may wind up eating another $6 million next season. Looking ahead to 2000 Three key questions 1. At this writing, the Padres lineup in 2000 is identical to the Padres lineup in 1999 ... and we know how that worked out. Can management somehow dump any of the high-priced veterans? Answer: Sort of. The Padres traded Quilvio Veras, Reggie Sanders and Wally Joyner for Bret Boone and Ryan Klesko. They lose a solid leadoff hitter but add power. The payroll drops slightly for 2000, although they take on Klesko's $6.5 million salary for 2001. 2. The rotation wasn't bad last year, but now Andy Ashby is gone, traded to Philadelphia. Can a staff anchored by Sterling Hitchcock, Carlton Loewer and Woody Williams survive for long? 3. Are Tony Gwynn's days as a full-time player over? The club says they want him playing right field in 2002, but Gwynn turns 40 in May, he's nearly immobile in the outfield, and over the last two seasons he's missed approximately 80 games with various injuries. Can expect to play better: Rookie catcher Ben Davis stopped hitting after his promotion to the majors, and the Padres have even talked about trading him. If Davis is back, he'll hit better. Can expect to play worse Phil Nevin entered the 1999 season with a .387 career slugging percentage in 764 at-bats. But during the 1999 season, he slugged .527 in 383 at-bats. You do the math.
Projected lineup SS Damian Jackson/Chris Gomez 2B Bret Boone RF Tony Gwynn 1B Ryan Klesko 3B Phil Nevin LF Eric Owens/Mike Darr CF Ruben Rivera C Ben Davis Rotation/Closer Sterling Hitchcock Woody Williams Matt Clement Brian Boehringer Buddy Carlyle Trevor Hoffman A closer look The San Diego organization has shown amazing elasticity in the late 1990s. In 1993 they lost 101 games, and in 1994 they finished 47-70, the worst record in the major leagues. But in 1995, they bounced back with a respectable 70-74 mark, and in 1996 they won a division title. Amazingly, the 1997 season saw the Padres plummet to last place ... and then, of course, they advanced all the way to the World Series in 1998. It was back to third place in 1999, of course, but might the Padres bounce back to contention once again? Not likely. Given their moderate local-TV revenues and old-fashioned ballpark, the club decided it simply couldn't afford to keep the high-priced stars. So all save Gwynn were jettisoned, and management is now aiming to be competitive in 2002, when a new downtown ballpark is (very) tentatively scheduled to open. That forecast is not, we suspect, going to have fans beating down the gates at Qualcomm Stadium. Three-year plans might be just the thing in communist countries, but baseball fans prefer one-year plans, so those fans who do show up the next couple of seasons are going to be awfully lonely. Realistically, unless owner John Moores -- who is, it must be said, incredibly wealthy -- decides to accept losing many millions of dollars, the next couple of seasons will indeed be lean ones. The Padres haven't developed any quality major leaguers in their farm system in recent years. There aren't any about to burst on the scene, either, which is why the projected 2000 lineup is the same as the 1999 lineup that did so poorly. There is, however, currently a healthy supply of talent at the lower levels. Can you wait until 2002, Padres fans? Rob Neyer is a staff writer for ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Padres minor-league report Hot Stove Heaters index  | ||||||||||
