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Decade in review
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10-year record:
512-559, .478 (21st overall)
Total payroll:
$266 million (23rd overall)
Division titles
None
.500 or better seasons
Three (1995, 1996 & 1997)
Best season: 1995
In only their third season of existence, the Rockies reached the postseason, finishing a game behind the Dodgers in the National League West but did grab the wild card. The thrill for the neophyte fans in Colorado was only somewhat lessened when the Rockies lost to Atlanta in four games in the first round of the playoffs.
Worst season: 1999
No, the Rockies' 72-90 record last season wasn't the worst in franchise history; they went 67-95 in 1993. But that was the club's first season, and nobody expected anything. In 1999, expectations were high, what with the arrival of manager Jim Leyland, everyone's favorite miracle worker. So what happened? The pitching was awful, even considering Coors Field, and everyone knew Leyland was a lame duck by the All-Star break. And the Rockies finished in last place for the first time.
Best trade
Let's be honest. Dante Bichette is not a great player, and in fact he's never been a great player ... but he's been a lot better than Kevin Reimer. On November 17, 1992, before the Rockies had played a single game, they traded Reimer to Milwaukee, and got Bichette in return. Reimer did play 125 games for the Brewers in 1993, after which he left for the (figuratively) greener pastures and (literally) smaller ballparks in Japan. Bichette, warts and all, averaged 28 home runs and 118 RBI in his seven years as a Rockie (Rocky?).
Worst trade
The Rockies haven't made many bad trades, but this one's a doozy. On July 26, 1993, the club made a huge move to bolster its starting rotation, acquiring veterans Bruce Hurst and Greg Harris from the San Diego Padres. The Rockies gave up Brad Ausmus, Doug Bochtler, and a player to be named later. In 42 games with Colorado, Harris went 4-20. Hurst started three games, went on the DL, and never pitched for the Rockies again. Ausmus and Bochtler, meanwhile, have been decent major leaguers since the deal. Oh, and that player to be named later? His name was Andy Ashby.
Best player
Yes, Larry Walker benefits from his home ballpark. In 1999, he batted
.461 at Coors Field, just .286 outside the Rocky Mountain State. But along with that .286 road batting average came a .519 road slugging percentage, and that's better than good. Since signing a free-agent deal with the Rockies after the 1994 season, Walker has spent too much time on the Disabled List, but he's also won two batting titles and, even better, led the National League in on-base percentage and slugging percentage twice each.
Worst player
After Darryl Kile's career year in 1997 with the Astros, the Rockies signed him to a lucrative free-agent contract. This, even though Kile's out pitch is his big curveball, and curves are notoriously ineffective at high altitude. Well, Kile went 13-17 with a 5.20 ERA in 1998 ... and he was a lot worse in 1999, finishing 8-13 with a 6.61 ERA.
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1999 in review
Record:
72-90, 22nd overall
Payroll:
$54.4 million, 12th overall
Runs scored:
906, 2nd in NL
Runs allowed:
1,028, 16th (last) in NL
What went right?
No, Pedro Astacio's 5.04 ERA wasn't pretty. But it was a lot better than the 6.23 he posted in 1998. And 5.04 is actually pretty good when you consider that Astacio started 15 games at Coors Field (7.16 ERA). Throw in his 17-11 record, and it was a fine season, arguably Astacio's best ever. Though Larry Walker barely played enough to qualify, he managed to lead the National League in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
What went wrong?
The pitching and the hitting. Free-agent acquisition Brian Bohanon racked up a 6.20 ERA, and high-paid holdover Darryl Kile was even worse, at 6.61. The offense scored a lot of runs (906), but not nearly enough to win in a bandbox. Only Larry Walker and Todd Helton truly contributed to the cause, with Vinny Castilla a particular disappointment.
In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Hiring Jim Leyland to manage the club. The supposed savior didn't really want to be in Denver, especially after his family moved back east in May.
2. Installing Dave Veres, then a 32-year-old career middle reliever, as closer. He took his lumps at home (7.40 ERA!), but converted 20 of 21 save opportunities on the road.
3. Trying to make a leadoff man out of shortstop Neifi Perez. He posted a .307 OBP, and his 108 runs scored are impressive only if you forget where he played half his games.
Looking
ahead to 2000
Three key questions
1. Are there any pitchers who can be consistently effective at Coors Field?
2. And if the answer to Question No. 1 is "Yes," will the Rockies be able to identify them?
3. Will young players Neifi Perez and Todd Helton develop into stars?
And here's a fourth key question: Will oft-injured corner outfielders Jeffrey Hammonds and Larry Walker ever appear in the same lineup?
Can expect to play better
This might well be first baseman Todd Helton's breakout year. He's the right age (26) and he's in the right ballpark. Expect at least 40 bombs and 125 RBI. Newcomers Jeffrey Hammonds and Jeff Cirillo will obviously benefit from the rarefied atmosphere.
Can expect to play worse
Playing mostly second base, 32-year-old utility man Terry Shumpert batted .347 in 92 games, after never having hit better than .275 in any of his previous seasons. We've seen this before. In 1994, outfielder Mike Kingery hit .349 in 301 at-bats. The next year, Kingery remembered who he was and hit .269. We should expect the same of Shumpert.
Projected lineup
CF Tom Goodwin
2B Mike Lansing/Terry Shumpert
RF Larry Walker
3B Jeff Cirillo
1B Todd Helton
LF Jeffrey Hammonds
C Brent Mayne/Scott Servais
SS Neifi Perez
Rotation/Closer
Pedro Astacio
Rolando Arrojo
Masato Yoshii
Brian Bohanon
Scott Karl
Jerry DiPoto
A closer look
Big, big news out of Denver this winter. Someone associated with the Rockies actually attempted to quantify the impact Coors Field has on hitters' stats. According to "USA Today Baseball Weekly," new general manager Dan O'Dowd and administrator Thad Levine "worked out a formula that would compute every major league player's statistics from the last three seasons if they played their home games at Coors Field."
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Man on the spot
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| Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd says that Jeff Cirillo should hit around .350 now that he's playing half his games at Coors Field. |
Now, many of you reading this might be wondering why all the fuss? After all, Bill James put ballpark effects on the map nearly 20 years ago, and even most sportswriters have been unable to ignore the "Coors Effect." But the Rockies never quite got it. Yes, they actually thought that Dante Bichette was a good player, and they've habitually dumped pretty good pitchers who couldn't "adjust" to pitching in Denver.
In truth, this "formula" used by O'Dowd is somewhat pointless. The fact is that a mediocre hitter will have good stats at Coors Field, a good hitter will have great stats at Coors, and a great hitter ... well, just check out Larry Walker's numbers. So do we need a formula telling us that Jeff Cirillo -- a good hitter -- would have batted .353 with a .425 on-base percentage and a .517 slugging percentage, had he been with Colorado last year?
Probably not. But hey, the fact that O'Dowd even bothered to project on-base percentage tells us something important.
And then you have Tom Goodwin, Colorado's new center fielder. Speed and defense are both wonderful (and often related) qualities, but if you can't score runs in Coors Field, you're not going to win. Goodwin is a poor offensive player, because his stolen-base percentages don't compensate for his mediocre on-base percentage.
Elsewhere, the new Rockies are improvements. Jeff Cirillo is a better player than Vinny Castilla, and Jeffrey Hammonds is a better player than Dante Bichette (though Hammonds has yet to prove he can stay healthy for 150 games). Unfortunately, upgrading two positions isn't nearly enough to move a 72-90 team into contention. Even if everybody is healthy, the Rockies will still get mediocre offensive production from four positions: catcher, second base, shortstop and center field. The Rockies scored 906 runs last season, just two behind the league-leading Diamondbacks ... and to win 90 games, the Rockies need to score more than a thousand.
Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither were most contending baseball teams. O'Dowd and the Rockies know this, and they say that 2000 is simply the first year of a three-year plan. Fortunately, early indications are that this three-year plan includes a footnote that says something like, "Warning: Big numbers compiled in Coors Field are not always what they seem."
Now, about that pitching staff ...
Rob Neyer is a staff writer for ESPN.com. | |
ALSO SEE
Rockies minor-league report
ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters
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