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| TODAY: Friday, May 12 | |||||
| Rickey saga remains for Mets Special to ESPN.com | |||||
There are so many things I like about the Mets. They don't have any pop in the outfield, but they didn't really last year, either. They get home run production from third base, second base, first base and catching, although with John Olerud going and Todd Zeile playing, they're pretty right-handed right now. The key player for them is Derek Bell. If he plays like last season, when he was in the bottom 10 in baseball in on-base-plus-slugging percentage -- they're in trouble. It's OK for Rey Ordonez to hit like that, but not a right fielder.
When I look at the makeup of a club, what I think about is do they match up with the Yankees? El Duque had a 90-point disparity in his batting average vs. left-handers and right-handers. For example, the Braves still look to be too right-handed. Except for Chipper Jones, all their top weapons (Andruw Jones, Andres Galarraga, Reggie Sanders, Javy Lopez, Brian Jordan) bat right-handed. The Braves just haven't done anything against the Yankees' staff in two World Series. The Mets have the same problem. Other than Robin Ventura and Darryl Hamilton, they're all righties.
People have been raving about Kris Benson's stuff in the Grapefruit League. One thing to keep in mind is that Benson won a job last year with phenomenal numbers in spring, so maybe's he's one of those guys who is always ahead of the curve in spring training. What he does in the regular season will dictate how good he'll be. The Pirates certainly have a lot to be excited about, especially with their starting pitching. Francisco Cordova came into camp in better shape than a year ago. He had shoulder problems last season, and guys thought some of those problems were because he didn't work out heading into the 1999 season. Todd Ritchie didn't have a real good spring (26 hits in 16 innings through Thursday), but this is a guy who won 15 games in just 26 starts a year ago. Jimmy Anderson winning the fifth spot in the rotation over Pete Schourek was a little bit of a surprise, but Anderson earned the job with what he did in the spring (16 hits, nine K's in 15 2/3 innings). When looking at Benson, it's important to note that pitchers often make a quantum leap forward about halfway through the second season. I was talking to one scout the other day about Brad Radke, and he mentioned how Radke made a big improvement at that point in his career. In fact, if you talk to a lot of veteran major league scouts, they say guys need about 400 innings at the big-league level, at which point something really seems to kick in. There are obvious exceptions like Fernando Valenzuela and Doc Gooden, who were good from the beginning. But look at Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Bret Saberhagen. The first year was baptism by fire for these guys, as they went a combined 33-60 their first full year in the majors, 80-44 the next year. Now, this doesn't hold for all pitchers -- if you're a mediocre pitcher, you're a mediocre pitcher -- but for guys that have good stuff like Benson, the second season is often a breakthrough season. Jason Schmidt has a few more innings than the other pitchers in the Pittsburgh rotation. Folks have been raving about him this spring (1.40 ERA). The knock on him is the Pirates thought he would be a No. 1 guy and he hasn't really developed into that role, with some people questioning his makeup. A No. 1 guy has to be mentally tough and ready to pitch against the other team's No. 1. For instance, Kenny Rogers didn't do himself any favors through the years and it's something guys get a reputation for, deserved or not. It's a tough label to live with and I'm sure Rogers and Schmidt have to read about that. And those things can eat at you. As for the Pirates offense, I like Warren Morris, Kevin Young is dependable, and having Pat Meares back will be a plus. Basically, they're breaking in two rookies in Chad Hermansen and Aramis Ramirez, although Ramirez played some back in 1998. I think there are questions about both of them. Hermansen has great power, but a guy who strikes out 119 times in Triple-A makes you a little nervous. Ramirez, meanwhile, made 42 errors at Triple-A Nashville. That's more than the entire Mets starting infield made. I don't know what they'll get out of Wil Cordero. The Pirates justified his signing by citing their record against left-handers. They were 17-30 vs. left-handers, compared to 61-53 against right-handers. They also picked up Bruce Aven for Brant Brown to get more right-handed. Of course, you have to analyze those stats carefully to understand their true meaning. Who did they face in those games? What were the scores of the games? No easy solution for D-Backs Matt Williams fouled a ball off his foot earlier this week and will apparently miss about six weeks for the Diamondbacks. The only good news for Arizona about the injury is you'd rather have Williams go out at this time of the year than later in the season. However, compounding the problem is Andy Fox, Buck Showalter's utility guy, is also banged up. Fortunately, Lenny Harris came into camp in good shape and will be able to play third base. One concern for Buck is that the team's lineup is very left-handed now with Luis Gonzalez, Steve Finley and Erubiel Durazo, Tony Womack, Travis Lee and Harris or Fox at third base. The only exceptions are Jay Bell and the catcher spot, although Bernard Gilkey will have to play in a platoon situation. Teams don't necessarily juggle their rotation to get a left-hander in there, although early in the season you may see some of that. Do you upset your rotation if Kevin Brown is going to start to and make sure Carlos Perez goes instead? Of course not, but if you have a No. 3 or No. 4 guy scheduled, you make a slight adjustment. For example, Arizona opens up with three games against the Phillies. The Phillies will have right-handers Andy Ashby and Paul Byrd in the first two slots, but Terry Francona may think about moving Randy Wolf up to pitch the third game. Later in the month, the Diamondbacks have six games against the Giants. Dusty Baker will want to get Kirk Rueter and Shawn Estes in there as much as possible. It will be interesting to see how Randy Johnson fares on Opening Day. He's had a terrible spring and the Diamondbacks desperately need him to dominate like last season. One reason for that is they are working in unchartered waters with Todd Stottlemyre, who is pitching with a torn rotator cuff after electing to not have surgery. Showalter told me he holds his breath every time Stottlemyre throws a pitch. The guys on the team certainly admire Stottlemyre for working out over the winter and adding 18-20 pounds of muscle. But if Randy isn't sharp and Stottlemyre blows up, and keeping in mind a lot of guys had career years, they might come back to the pack. Breakout years A few players to watch for breakout seasons: | ALSO SEE Mets preview  NL: Pirates making their movePirates preview  | ||||
