Peter Gammons

ESPN.com | Baseball Index | Peter Gammons Bio

NL Central looks entertaining and competitive

By Peter Gammons
Special to ESPN.com

January 31

If (when?) Ken Griffey Jr. gets traded to Cincinnati, the National League Central will have Griffey, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Jeff Bagwell. The Cardinals and Cubs are already two of the game's emerald franchises, and within three years the division will have new parks in Houston, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Cincinnati.

Except for Chicago, playing in the Heartland Division in each league is not exactly the elite address. In the five years of three-divisional play, Cleveland is the only AL Central team to make the postseason, and while the Astros, Reds, Cards and Cubs have all made it to the playoffs, only in 1995 and 1996 -- when Cincinnati beat Los Angeles and St. Louis beat San Diego -- has a team from this division won a series.

Jeff Bagwell
Boston fans still rue the day the Red Sox traded away Jeff Bagwell.

And no one in Houston has to be reminded that the Astros have never won a postseason series. It is no consolation that two of the three best National League playoff series since division play began in 1969 involved the Astros, against eventual World Series champions Philadelphia in 1980 and New York in 1986. In those series, as against the Padres in '98, when Jim Leyritz hit the foul pole, and last October against the Braves when Walt Weiss made his great stab, there was some luck involved; if it were John Rocker with the sudden elbow twinge, not Billy Wagner, the Astros would have won that series and might have made it to the World Series. Houston could have won either of the last two years. It had a dominant No. 1 starter (Randy Johnson, then Mike Hampton), three stars (Bagwell, Craig Biggio and Moises Alou and Carl Everett). Hey, the Cardinals could have won the NLCS in '96 when they had Atlanta down 3 games to 1.

No one from this division has had one of those magical runs like the Padres in 1998, not that anyone else in the NL West has won a series, either. But as the fans in Houston watched while ownership demanded payroll be slashed despite moving into their new park this season, there was a clear reminder that payroll remains a most important factor. If Astros general manager Gerry Hunsicker had been able to afford an extra $10 million last season -- which still would have left them about $13 million behind the Braves' $79 million payroll -- the depth of his pitching staff and bench might well have been enough to get them over the hump. Don't you think Jim Bowden could have made a serious run at the Braves in 1995 with an extra $8 million? Or the Cardinals in 1996?

This season, St. Louis is going to be somewhere between $56M and $60M, thanks in large part to Mark McGwire. The Cubs will be in the Fifties, Houston in the lower Forties (after being at $56M last year), Cincinnati somewhere around $35-38M -- until and if they get Griffey, who management figures would generate at least $7-10 million in added revenue this season -- and the Pirates and Brewers somewhere a little lower. In contrast, the Mets, Dodgers and Braves will all be in the $78-$87 million range. Those extra dollars mean one more top starter, a couple of more experienced middle relievers and added depth.

But put aside the whole postseason business. Think about a division with Griffey, Barry Larkin, Sean Casey and Pokey Reese on one team. Then look at Bagwell, Biggio, Alou and Wagner on another. Then McGwire, Fernando Tatis, Ray Lankford and J.D. Drew. Then Sosa, Kerry Wood and Corey Patterson, not to mention manager Don Baylor, who may change the persona of that franchise. Then factor in Pittsburgh's young starting rotation. And even Milwaukee's corner outfielders, Geoff Jenkins and Jeromy Burnitz.

If Pittsburgh's rotation -- with Kris Benson a future No. 1 -- is what it appears to be, Mike Williams' elbow can hold up throwing all those sliders, Jason Kendall is healthy and Chad Hermansen and Aramis Ramirez come through, it is possible for the Pirates to sneak into wild-card contention. The problem for the Pirates is that the Astros, Cardinals and Reds are all dead serious about making the postseason.

People forget that Cincinnati won 96 games last year, and Dante Bichette may not replace Greg Vaughn's home runs, but could equal his overall production; remember, this is a team with 10 players who reached double figures in homers. If they add Griffey, other than catcher, third base and probably right field, wouldn't you take the Reds over the Braves at the each position? Think about it.

The Cardinals look to be the most improved team, thanks to the innings that Pat Hentgen (who threw very well in September), Darryl Kile and Andy Benes bring, the anticipated return of Matt Morris by the ides of May and the luxury of working Rick Ankiel into the fifth spot in the rotation. Fernando Vina gives them a legitimate leadoff hitter, Lankford has his knee operation more than a year in his rearview mirror and one can expect dramatic improvement from Drew and catcher Eli Marrero.

What we don't know is what to expect from the Astros, except that with Biggio, Bagwell, Alou and friends, they will play hard. The Mets don't think Roger Cedeno can play center field, which means Richard Hidalgo may play in the middle. Presuming they keep Alou, who has a no-trade clause to everywhere but Atlanta, Colorado and Chicago, they have to figure out how to use prized young hitters Lance Berkman and Daryle Ward. They've lost one of the game's best pitchers in Hampton, Scott Elarton isn't expected to be ready to open the season off shoulder surgery and they haven't been able to fill the bullpen. If the new park plays much smaller than the Astrodome -- and it's supposed to have a shorter porch in left and a lot of territory in right-center -- then Octavio Dotel will have to make an immediate jump into the rotation behind Jose Lima and Shane Reynolds.

"I really don't know how good Dotel is," says one NL scout. "He has a great arm, but he's primarily been a fastball/slider guy, and while his fastball has velocity, it's straight, so if he's off with his slider he's hittable. If he could ever come up with a changeup, he could be really good." Houston may have the perfect influence to convince Dotel the worth of a changeup in Lima.

Is there a team in this division that on Groundhog Day you'd pick to make the World Series ahead of the Braves, Mets or Diamondbacks? Probably not. But in terms of competitiveness and everyday entertainment value, this is perhaps the best division. McGwire, Sosa, Bagwell, Biggio, Griffey ...

News, notes and rumors

Baseball people who had recently seen D'Angelo Jimenez in the Dominican raved about the young Yankees infielder. Not only is the auto accident that left him with a broken neck scary, but this is a loss to the Yankees that should not be underestimated. It goes unsaid, but the Yanks are still very worried about Chuck Knoblauch's throwing problems, and Jimenez was potent protection. While they still have Alfonso Soriano, the Yankees believe he should spend more time in Columbus, so they now are out looking for a replacement for the departed Luis Sojo. If Don Zimmer has any say, they will sign Shawon Dunston. The Astros have made it known that if the Yanks can come up with some pitching depth, they will deal Russ Johnson. ... The Roberto Kelly signing could mean that Shane Spencer gets moved at the end of spring training, when and if Ricky Ledee wins the left-field job.

For all those Jim Edmonds to the Mets stories, the Mets and Angels haven't talked since the winter meetings, and honestly don't have the kind of package that would approach what Anaheim turned down from Oakland. For the time being, the Angels appear to be a mess. "The notion that they're going to rush Ramon Ortiz, Brian Cooper and maybe even Seth Etherton up from Double-A, try Jarrod Washburn and Scott Schoeneweis and do all this with a catcher (Ben Molina) with 30-something games of experience is a joke," says one executive. "They could ruin Ortiz by throwing him into this situation without a veteran catcher." ... And don't ask Mickey Morandini to Bill Stoneman's house for dinner. Morandini had a deal with the Angels set at the winter meetings, and was told to wait until the Edmonds deal with Oakland was done and payroll was cleared. Morandini waited and ended up having to sign a minor-league deal with the Expos. ... The Mets now have nine left-handers on the roster, and are trying to trade at least two. Dennis Cook will go somewhere like Seattle, but when New York offered Cook and Bill Pulsipher to the Rockies for Jose Jimenez, they were turned down.

"(Peter) Angelos took the wrong guy in Aaron Sele to make another physical statement," says one baseball pitching person. "His innings keep going up, he has excellent command of his fastball and he never backed off his curveball, all signs that he's perfectly healthy. On the other hand, I worry about Brad Radke. Where he was throwing 92-93 in his salad days, he's been 88 with a rare 89 the last two years. And the tell-tale sign is that he's backed off his curveball. That scares me, long-term." But it also has been pointed out that Pudge Rodriguez deserves a lot of credit for Sele's development, because he removed Sele's fear of working with runners on base and restored confidence in his curveball that he lost in favor of a slider and cutter in Boston.

It appears Ed Sprague and Tony Fernandez, both All-Stars in 1999, will end up going to Japan as market casualties. ... One intriguing available pitcher is Oakland's Ariel Prieto, who showed in winter ball that after two years coming off elbow surgery his stuff is back. Prieto was clocked at 93-94 mph in Puerto Rico, and the unusual tilt on his slider is returning; even though the most he can make this season is $500,000, Oakland will move him. ... One early rookie-of-the-year candidate pending a decent spring is Padres left fielder Mike Darr, the slashing, multi-tooled kid the Pads stole from the Tigers in 1997 for Jody Reed. ... Speaking of Detroit, clubs interested in Bobby Higginson have been told to forget it, at least for now.

Mark this down: Albert Belle will have a monster season in Baltimore. He's such a routine freak that it takes him two years to get comfortable, he knows that Mike Hargrove will leave him alone (Belle had no respect for Ray Miller) and he will no longer be a curiosity factor or an excuse if the team disappoints. But the Orioles are still worried about Cal Ripken's back -- Jeff Conine has been told he may work at third base this spring.

One AL executive says "the biggest impact that any free agent will have on his new team will be Chuck Finley on the Indians. Not only for his pitching, but for what he'll do for those other pitchers, especially Bartolo Colon and Jaret Wright." ... The Indians love to bottom-fish for pitchers, but if Scott Sanders is healthy -- and he says he is -- and can find his delivery with Dick Pole, he could be a major contributor in a swing role.

Up and up and up
George Steinbrenner has no one to blame but himself and Red Sox GM Dan Duquette for having to shell out $117.5 million to Derek Jeter; that is, if and when George stops hemming and hawing and gets the deal done. Two years ago, the Yankees were on the verge of getting Jeter signed up to a long-term deal when the Red Sox pounced on Nomar Garciaparra and tied him up for more than $30 million over five years, plus options. So Jeter then pulled back, and until this winter, Steinbrenner kept waiting, which in this economic climate meant the price kept skyrocketing. The New York Times has suggested that Steinbrenner is delaying on finalizing the Jeter contract because of criticism he is is contributing to salary inflation, but the fact is that Jeter's deal is market for a marquee, great young player at a skill position who happens to be a terrific human being. Anyway, for all those who criticize the Yankees' payroll, how many free agents from other teams will they likely have on their Opening Day roster? Two -- Mike Stanton and Roberto Kelly.

If Jeter's contract is completed, it will not have a staggering impact on the market. But if the Tigers do sign Juan Gonzalez to the eight-year, $140,000,000 deal, that will have a staggering impact. Considring Gonzalez' back problem and declining defensive skills, is he one of the game's 10 best players? No. But there will be Gonzalez at $17.5M and Shawn Green at $14M.

Before looking over at the long list of significant players who are free agents at the of next season, look at the short list:

Positional players: Junior Griffey, Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez, Barry Larkin, Carl Everett, Juan Gonzalez. Clubs have options on Jeff Bagwell. Mark McGwire and Rondell White.

Starting pitchers: Mike Mussina, Brad Radke, Mike Hampton, Roger Clemens, David Cone. The Phils have an option on Curt Schilling, the Braves have one on John Smoltz.

Relievers: Robb Nen, Armando Benitez. The Angels have an option on Troy Percival.

If the Reds can satisfy the Mariners with players after Scott Williamson and Brett Tomko, what will they now have to pay Junior -- even with the theoretical hometown discount -- to ensure that he makes his run at Henry Aaron in the new Cincinnati ballpark? What will the Braves have to ante up for Chipper? Will the Indians even try to keep Ramirez? Haven't Gonzalez and Green jacked Everett's price up in Boston? Whoever wants Alex Rodriguez may have to hire Democratic fund-raiser Terry McAuliffe to raise the capital to get it done.

The Mets are willing to go to $11M a year for five years for Hampton, but aren't optimistic that they will get it done in this climate. Peter Angelos has let Mussina know that he'd like to get him signed, but Mussina is not going to allow Angelos the hometown discount this time around. Kevin Brown is 79-44 the last five years, Mussina 84-45; while Brown has the superior ERA, he has pitched four of those five years in the National League and in pitchers' parks. Mussina will be only 31 when he hits the market, and agent Arn Tellum says that for the first time Mussina is willing to leave Baltimore and its proximity to his hometown of Montoursville, Pa., to which he gives so much of his life. Tellum says New York, Cleveland and Boston are all close enough, and that he's certain Mussina would go most anywhere.

Could Ted Kennedy get McAuliffe to help out John Harrington and get Pedro Martinez and Mussina on the next staff and end the 1918 whines?

Owners have given Bud Selig theoretical powers to force more revenue-sharing down the throats of the big-market teams. Steinbrenner, Fred Wilpon, Angelos and others figure the Players Association will never give in to a more radical spreading of revenues, and, in fact, one large-market club's front office was told to ignore Sandy Alderson's "socialist ideas" when they attended a recent executive development seminar in Virginia.

Understand that the Players Association has never been the source of labor strife in the '90s. It was always big-market owners vs. small-market owners, with the players on the big-markets' side. Selig is trying to control internet revenues and spread that money out 30 equal ways. Small-market owners, who know the NFL isn't a direct comparison because it is driven by national TV revenue as opposed to baseball being driven by local revenue, have heard the suggestion that they shouldn't allow the likes of the Yankees and Mets to televise out of small-market ballparks without an increased share of their local TV revenues. The theory is that the Yankees can't sell a game against the Royals to MSG without the Royals, and that if George doesn't believe that, he should try to televise 162 intra-squad games.

There are those who believe that come December, some players will be disappointed by the market because there just aren't enough teams that can shell out contracts that start talking at $15M per year. But we've heard that since before A-Rod was born, and if Gonzalez can get $17.5M a year for eight years, then forget about that first $20 million player. The question now is whether A-Rod be the first $25 million-a-year player? Don't think Scott Boras hasn't thought about it.

Closing comments

The bargain ($1M) signing of Russ Davis gives the Giants the potential for 20 home runs at every position except catcher. But while Marvin Benard and Armando Rios showed power last year, the Giants will closely watch rookie center fielder Calvin Murray, who hit .334 with 23 homers at Fresno. The Giants feel that Murray not only is one of the really good guys around, but proved his perseverance by battling through four seasons in Shreveport before having his career take off last season. Murray would give the Giants speed in center, which they need since their sensational new park is 307 feet down each line but 420 in right-center field.

The Dodgers are talking up Carlos Perez for a big comeback, but right now the rotation is Kevin Brown, Chan Ho Park, Darren Dreifort, Eric Gagne and Orel Hershiser, unless Davey Johnson can convince Dreifort to relieve -- which is doubtful. Incidentally, Boras is the agent for four-fifths of that rotation, everyone but Hershiser. And Boras has just added Barry Bonds as well.

The Phillies are so convinced that Rico Brogna's arthroscopic knee surgery is so minor that he'll be ready in April that they have told Pat Burrell that he will not play first base in spring training. ... Ruben Mateo further worried the Rangers by hitting .156 in the Dominican playoffs, that after an ulcer that cost him 15 pounds following a wrist injury that cut short his season in August ... Good point made by one AL GM: "With three lefties in the Ranger rotations, (Jamie) Moyer and (John) Halama in Seattle and Washburn and maybe Schoeneweis and even Kent Mercker in Anaheim, the A's will have a tougher time in their own division next season with that left-handed-dominated lineup."

Some have wondered where the Devil Rays came up with the money, and many worry about their defense on the fastest turf in the majors, but GM Chuck LaMar figures he's got a lot of chips to trade with in spring training in their quest for a leadoff hitter and a couple of quick middle infielders. The Rays have nine right-handers in their pen who throw 94 mph or better; Albie Lopez was hitting 97 the last two months, and Esteban Yan is a scary staircase to Roberto Hernandez; Bryan Rekar has as good of stuff as any of them. They also have two right-handers who get lefties out in Jim Mecir and Jeff Sparks. Right now, there is interest in Bubba Trammell and Jose Guillen, and they think that come July, someone like the Indians will pay the price for Hernandez. ... Every team should invest in Harvey Dorfman's "The Mental ABCs of Pitching" and distribute it to every pitcher and instructor in the organization. It is practical, it is brilliant.

Send this story to a friend | Most sent stories


	Gammons update: Next week for Griffey trade? Apolitical blues The List: Possible No. 1s in AL 2000-2001 free agents