Series Breakdown: Avalanche vs. Stars
By Brian Engblom
Special to ESPN.com
Check out which team has the edge, and then see what I think the outcome will be.
Matching up 5-on-5
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It is going to be a really tight series defensively. Everyone was surprised with how well the Avs played defensively vs. Detroit. They won't change because Dallas plays so tight to the vest. But by my count, the Avs have seven dangerous offensive players to Dallas' four. By dangerous, I mean guys who have proven to be productive in the playoffs and can be relied upon to continue. Drury, Deadmarsh, Ozolinsh, Bourque, Hejduk, Sakic and Forsberg for the Avs and Hull, Modano, Nieuwendyk and Zubov for Dallas. If Jamie Langenbrunner and Scott Thornton can produce up front, that will be key for the Stars. The biggest question mark is Jere Lehtinen. How much can he play and how effective will he be? Who knows? I don't think he knows. Coach Ken Hithcock loves him, saying he epitomizes their style. He can play in all situations. If you look at the lineups of the top six defensemen, say Zubov and Ozolinsh cancel each other out. Assuming Bourque plays, you know he'll produce. So, it's up to Darryl Sydor -- and Sylvain Cote to a lesser degree -- to step up. If things get really tight up front, some offense needs to come from the defense. Sydor has done well offensively in the past, and he will have to do it again. Six points from him would be huge and could swing things to Dallas, but there's so little room for error in this series.
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Special teams
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This will be huge in this series. Both penalty kill units have done well -- pretty even. Dallas had one of the best kill percentages in league history this year. They've done well in the postseason but shown they can be scored upon. On the power play, the Avs have 12 goals to seven for Dallas. Colorado has the confidence they can score goals. Going into a new series changes things, but it's better to go in with confidence than without it. Because of all their weapons, the Avs can throw more combinations out there. Dallas has to play like the best penalty killing unit in history to match the Avs. The key will be which team gets more chances on the man advantage. In the end, having 12 goals gives Colorado the edge because the Avs' kill has been as good as Dallas'.
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Goaltending
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Goalies are the best penalty killers. This is going to be a heavyweight battle between two of the best in the game. Patrick has the mystique and the three Cups. Belfour beat him last year. Eddie got the Cup and got rid of all the scrutiny. Belfour is coming off a great season -- a better one than Roy. There will be a lot about this matchup in the press. There already has been some. Belfour said he is the equal to Roy, and now Roy knows what he said. Roy reminds me of Muhammed Ali ... he will fight the fight as good as he talks about it. Patrick does that, and it takes pressure off his teammates. Roy has better motivation because of losing last year; he doesn't like being bested by anyone.
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Intangibles
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It goes back to Lehtinen for Dallas and the motivation for revenge -- mixed in with the Bourque factor -- for Colorado. The team would love to see Bourque win. That whole thing is not just media hype. They have the ultimate respect for Bourque, and he is obviously highly motivated.
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PREDICTION
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This series will be either a four-game sweep with all four going to overtime, or a seven-game thriller. No matter what, it's going to be a war. And Colorado will win. |
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Brian Engblom, a former NHL star with Montreal, serves as an NHL analyst for ESPN and ABC.
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