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Thursday, December 23 War Room: Jets at Dolphins The War Room New York offense vs. Miami defense
Lucas has shown an awful lot of flair at the position, and his low-risk production has kept the team in games, but the running game must be effective for the Jets to move the ball. Martin rushed for 113 yards last week, which proved to be the difference in the game. The Dolphins will prove to be a tougher opposition to run against this week, as they allow an average of just 90.7 yards per game on the ground. The play of DT Daryl Gardener has been a huge boost to a unit that was slumping over the course of the last four games. Miami held the Chargers to just 26 yards rushing last week, while Zach Thomas contributed with another dominating performance against the run, recording 13 tackles in the game. The Dolphins have been forced to back off some of the pressure in the past few weeks because of the benching of Terrell Buckley at the cornerback position. While they were used to playing a lot of eight-men -in-the-box formations, Miami has been forced to play more conservative at the safety position to give help to Patrick Surtain in coverage. Surtain left last Sunday's game with a concussion, which forced Buckley back into the starting role where he showed remarkable fervor at the position and will likely take the field as the starter this week against the Jets. The Dolphins are now equipped with an outstanding trio at the corner position, giving the defense enough talent in the nickel package to shut down New York's marginal passing attack. Another huge advantage for the Dolphins is the fact that the Jets' tight ends Fred Baxter and Eric Green have combined for 14 catches on the season. Without the threat of a tight end in the passing game, it allows the Dolphins to put more emphasis on shutting down WRs Keyshawn Johnson and Wayne Chrebet, and also permits Miami to use more personnel in the blitz package instead of dropping into zone coverage. The Dolphins are aggressive by nature defensively, and will look to apply as much pressure as possible on the inexperienced quarterback. Lucas has held up wonderfully against the pressure since taking over the starting role, using his speed and quickness to get out of the pocket and create second look opportunities, but Miami is going to be too fast all-around. Against the speed of the Dolphin front seven, the pocket is going to break down a lot quicker, and the pressure is going to be more intense and consistent than what Lucas is used to seeing. Miami offense vs. New York defense
The Jets, however, are having to play a lot of soft zone coverage to protect their secondary, a tactic that worked well in the first meeting between the two teams when WR O.J. McDuffie did not play. McDuffie is one of the elite underneath receivers in the league, and should be able to take advantage of space in the middle of the field. Tony Martin has done an outstanding job of stretching the field, but without McDuffie in the lineup, there has been little production underneath to scare off defenses from dropping back. Marino should have time to throw against a Jets defensive line that has done little to create a rush and has only recorded 25 sacks on the season. The return of McDuffie should also boost the Dolphins 38.6% touchdown percentage in the redzone. Martin is a vertical receiver who does not go over the middle well, and the Dolphins have had to turn to Orande Gadsden to use his size in the redzone to create space on the fade and crossing routes. The bad news for the Dolphins is that Gadsden will have to sit out Monday night's game because of a recurring back injury, but the good news is that McDuffie and Yatil Green are both available and should complement each other well inside the redzone in three-receiver sets. For a team that came into the season with enough running backs to field four full backfields, the current situation is a little disturbing. Miami is forced to shuffle FB Stanley Pritchett into the tailback position, and even though he is running hard, he does not have the breakaway speed or burst to make anything happen in the running game. Jimmy Johnson is still hopeful that J.J. Johnson will return to the lineup, especially because the Dolphins' rushing game posed little threat to opposing defenses with Pritchett in the backfield rushing for 108 yards and one touchdown on 32 carries in two games. The return of Johnson to the lineup could be huge boost against a Jets' defense that is struggling against the run, giving up an average of 5.8 yards per carry last week on the ground against the Cowboys. The Jets are still working in a lot of "43" looks up front to defend against the run and create more of a pass rush, but the move has not been effective since the first time they tried it three weeks ago. This unit is simply not big, strong or quick enough to get in the gaps and clog the holes. Belichick has done an outstanding job putting his players in position by figuring out tendencies, but the defensive front seven is a weak spot on this team, and will have to be addressed in the offseason if the Jets are serious about contending in the AFC next season. Special teams
Olindo Mare is still the top field goal kicker, connecting on 37-of-43 attempts on the season. The Dolphin return teams are solid. Brock Marion is averaging 24.5 yards per kickoff return and Nate Jacquet is averaging 13.5 yards per return. The coverage units have been steady, allowing 10.3 yards per punt return and 22.2 yards per kickoff return. Key matchupsOwens has recorded nine sacks on the season, becoming Miami's top pass rusher. This is an interesting matchup because Young has all the physical tools to get in position and lock onto Owens, but the rookie is going to have some trouble with some of Owens' moves off the edge.
Martin is the backbone of the Jets' offensive attack, and even though he has only notched 40 receptions on the season he is a threat as a receiver out of the backfield. Rogers and Jones play big roles on defense because they must keep contain against Martin and funnel him back inside where there is more help. The interesting part is that Rogers and Jones are integral parts of the upfield rush, but will need to show excellent recognition of where Martin is on the field.
Coleman has shown some flash as a big-play defensive corner, but he may struggle with Martin's speed in this matchup. The key is going to be his ability to turn and run with the burner. If Coleman struggles matching up early on, it will take away from some of the aggressive scheme's that defensive coordinator Bill Belichick is looking to employ. New York Jets will win if...
Miami will win if...
The War Room edge
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