Thursday, December 23
The War Room
Green Bay offense vs. Tampa Bay defense
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PACKERS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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21
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Pass
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7
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Tot. Yds.
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11
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Scoring
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14
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Int's allowed
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20
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Sacks allowed
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33
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BUCCANEERS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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11
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vs. Pass
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3
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Total yds. allowed
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3
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# of Ints.
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18
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# of Sacks
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40
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Turnover differential
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-10
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Brett Favre's history of disappointments in the Metrodome continued last Monday in the Packers' 24-20 defeat. Unlike past losses, this one could not be solely pinned on Favre. On the very first play from scrimmage, LOT Mike Wahle, who was starting for Ross Verba, let Chris Doleman blow by him and force a fumble as Favre was setting to throw. That play set the tone for the entire night, as Green Bay's offense was only able to generate 13 points against a very suspect Vikings' defense. Wahle was later pulled but the damage had been done.
Pass protection will be a huge concern for offensive coordinator Sherm Lewis this Sunday when his team faces the hungry Bucs. Tampa got to Favre five times in their Week 5 contest, with Warren Sapp and Chidi Ahanotu each registering a pair. Green Bay's interior line held up well against the Vikes but Tampa's inside duo is much more active. The Bucs will again defend the pass with their tight zone coverages, hoping Green Bay's inexperienced receiver corps has a difficult time locating seams.
The Packers desperately need a presence down the middle of the field and TE Jeff Thomason appears to be the guy. Starter Tyrone Davis was benched late in the Vikings game after a dropped third-down pass, while both Thomason and third-stringer Lamont Hall made plays. Tampa was scorched on the perimeter by WRs Antonio Freeman and Bill Schroeder in the battle at Lambeau. The pair combined for 14 catches, 310 yards and two touchdowns, including Freeman's diving 21-yard score with just over a minute remaining.
Green Bay opened with a smart game plan last week, working RB Dorsey Levens into the flow with a good mix of runs and screen passes. Levens carried 26 times for 99 yards against the Vikings but only 23 of those came in the second half when the Vikings walked up SS Robert Griffith near the line of scrimmage to support the run.
Two key plays that sealed the Packers' fate were a pair of stuffed quarterback sneaks on third-and-one. OC Frank Winters' inability to get under NT Jerry Ball's pads allowed penetration that ultimately killed scoring drives. The Packers must play stronger between the tackles against a defense that was gashed last week for 262 yards on the ground by the Raiders.
Oakland had success running straight at the heart of the Bucs' defense -- their linebackers. For perhaps the first time all season, defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin's defense looked unprepared and lethargic. Heading into the playoffs, Tampa needs to play its most physical game of the season in order to send a message that last week was a fluke.
Tampa Bay offense vs. Green Bay defense
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BUCCANEERS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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16
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Pass
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30
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Tot. Yds.
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28
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Scoring
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26
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Int's allowed
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15
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Sacks allowed
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41
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PACKERS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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23
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vs. Pass
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14
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Total yds. allowed
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16
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# of Ints.
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22
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# of Sacks
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17
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Turnover differential
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+5
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Oakland did something that Tampa Bay's two previous opponents could not -- expose rookie QB Shaun King. The Raiders got after King with a variety of blitzes, sacking him four times and hurrying numerous others. Tampa Bay cannot simplify its offense any more than they have. The offensive line simply needs to give King more time in the pocket to deliver the ball down the field and discourage teams from blitzing.
A week after playing over-conservative against the Panthers, defensive coordinator Emmitt Thomas went after Minnesota's Jeff George with an intense blitz package. Although they recorded just one sack, this scheme worked well for the Packers early as George was forced to hurry a lot of throws. SS LeRoy Butler was the most used player on the blitz and his activity often left the cornerbacks in man coverage. DCs Tyrone Williams and rookie Antuan Edwards were both caught looking in the backfield on plays that resulted in big gains by Randy Moss. While the Bucs don't have a receiver of Moss' caliber, a guy like Jacquez Green has enough speed to get behind coverage. If Tampa's offensive line can effectively neutralize the blitz, they will finally have a chance to open things up.
Tampa's once-strong running game has seemingly disappeared. RB's Mike Astott and Warrick Dunn have combined for a paltry 51 yards the past two games and it's doubtful their fortunes will change this week against an improved Packers run defense. The inability of OC Tony Mayberry and Paul Gruber to practice during the week is the root of the ground woes. While the coaching staff denies it publicly, it's impossible to maintain cohesion up front when guys play together just once a week.
Though opponents continue to pick apart their secondary, Green Bay's front seven is stacking well at the point of attack and closing off gaps. Green Bay is still surrendering over 114 yards per game on the ground but over the past three games that figure has been just 60.0. DT Gilbert Brown spearheaded the short-yardage run defense, limiting the Vikings to just 76 yards on the ground (30 below their average).
Look for the Packers to use a number of run blitzes with LBs Bernardo Harris and Jude Waddy to test the mobility of Tampa's offensive line. Both players have been effective in that role this season and their effectiveness will force King to win the game with his arm.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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GB
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TB
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Punt return avg.
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24
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21
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Kickoff return avg.
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30
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20
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Opp. punt return avg.
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12
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7
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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18
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2
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Time of possession
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23
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6
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Green Bay special teams coach Steve Ortmeyer has deservedly come under fire this season for the team's poor production but last Monday's fake field goal call was genius. The Matt Hasselbeck to Jeff Thomason touchdown gave the Packers a lead its defense couldn't hold. Rookie KOR Basil Mitchell was unspectacular on returns but his crushing hit on Randy Moss forced a fumble that directly led to another score. Tampa did a nice job on punt returns against the Raiders, averaging 10 yards on five attempts but the same cannot be said for KOR Reidel Anthony, who failed to reach the 20-yard line on his first three returns, putting the offense in a hole early. Tampa Bay P Mark Royals, who punted nine times for a 44.6 yard average, was the team's lone bright spot in last week's loss.
Key matchups
Green Bay SS LeRoy Butler vs. Tampa Bay QB Shaun King
The Packers need to find a way to the quarterback and Butler is the obvious answer. The Packers used OLB Brian Williams on the blitz with some effectiveness in the first meeting but that isn't an option with him on IR. Defensive coordinator Emmitt Thomas should take a page out of the Raiders' game plan for this one.
Tampa Bay MLB Hardy Nickerson vs. Green Bay RB Dorsey Levens
After being embarrassed last Sunday by the Raiders, Nickerson & Co. need to bounce back with a physical effort. Levens will keep the Bucs off balance with his work out of the backfield in the passing game.
Tampa Bay FS Damien Robinson vs. Green Bay QB Brett Favre
Robinson was slow to provide help in the Week 5 and Favre burned them for 390 yards passing. The Packers will work a rhythmic passing game to counter the Bucs zone defenses. Robinson, who has a tendency for disappearing in spurts, can't afford any lapses this week.
Green Bay will win if...
The interior offensive line holds up against the Bucs front four. Back in October, Tampa occasionally moved DE Ahanotu inside next to Sapp and the pair responded with two sacks apiece. Green Bay's aging OC Winters and ROG McKenzie don't have the athleticism to hold up, so they must get by on play that often borders on dirty.
They establish balance on offense. Green Bay must run the football to discourage the Bucs from teeing off on Favre. Levens ran for 99 yards on 22 carries in the meeting at Lambeau but he'll be going up against a defense that is seething after letting Oakland RB's Kaufman and Wheatley to each break the 100-yard mark.
They eliminate costly penalties. Tampa's pressure defense can cause opponents to commit a number of false start and holding penalties. The Packers were whistled for nine penalties in the first meeting against Tampa and overcoming the referees won't be easy on the road.
Tampa Bay will win if...
They keep things simple for QB King. The Buccaneers need to come out with a low-risk, high-percentage game plan to ease King into the flow of the game. The Raiders got after King early last week and the rookie never got on track. Unless they go after him with a high number of blitzes, it's doubtful the Packers will put much heat on King.
The defense tackles better. Oakland's 262-yard rushing effort last week could largely be attributed to Tampa's worst tackling performance of the season. Workhorse RB Levens and open-field magician WR Freeman will test them this week. This is a proud unit that embarrassed itself last Sunday.
They do a better job of converting on third down. The Bucs were 0-for-12 last week and just 4-for-12 the first time they met the Packers. This has been a season-long problem for Tony Dungy's club because of the lack of playmakers at wide receiver. Because their passing game revolves around the running backs, Tampa can ill afford too many third-and-long situations.
The War Room edge
Tampa Bay Head Coach Tony Dungy has his work cut out for him this week after last week's collapse in Oakland. The Bucs aren't nearly as bad as they played last Sunday, but the Raiders exposed some of Shaun King's obvious flaws. The Packers need to put pressure on King and force him to beat the blitz. Green Bay QB Brett Favre was magical in the team's last-minute win against the Bucs at Lambeau Field but he won't have easy time on the road. Raymond James Stadium was the site of his worst game last season and the crowd will make it tough on him once again. Tampa wins this one with defense. Packers' playoff streak is finished.
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