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Thursday, December 23
War Room: Bengals at Ravens


Cincinnati offense vs. Baltimore defense
BENGALS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 4
Pass 14
Tot. Yds. 8
Scoring 18
Int's allowed 14
Sacks allowed 39
   
RAVENS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 2
vs. Pass 10
Total yds. allowed 5
# of Ints. 18
# of Sacks 40
Turnover differential +1
Cincinnati's offense has been hitting on all cylinders since Jeff Blake reassumed his position as starting QB and RB Corey Dillon reemerged to bring the Bengal offense back to life. Dillon's production on the ground has given Blake the luxury of throwing the long ball to talented receivers Darnay Scott and Carl Pickens off of play fakes.

The Raven defense is ranked 5th overall in the NFL, thanks in part to the play of their front. DT's Tony Siragusa and Larry Webster are smothering opposing running backs this season and reserves Fernando Smith and Lional Dalton have made this possible, not only by contributing with their solid play, but by providing the starters up front with much needed rest. Lest we forget LB Ray Lewis' lateral speed, which allows the speedy 'backer to make stops on opposing running backs outside of the "power alleys" and defend the pass as well.

The insertion of Blake has resulted in the cohesion of the Bengal offense from top to bottom, starting with the offensive line. The offensive front is in sync and the beneficiary has been Corey Dillon, who is running much like he did when took home Rookie of the Year honors in 1997. Dillon has rushed for 100 yards in three consecutive games and his rushing production for the season has reached 1,173 yards.

The Baltimore front seven is ranked 2nd in the entire league against the run, their stunting line and blitzing backers yielding just 77 yards a game on average. The Bengals offensive line will have to maintain the solid order of communication they've established with one another recently against Baltimore, because the Ravens are extremely active up front. Bengal OC Rich Braham has the tallest order of the group, needing keep his teammates informed at the LOS prior to snaps and also worry about neutralizing Siragusa and Webster.

Corey Dillon has had opposing defenses so concerned with his ability to produce that teams have been cheating their safeties towards the line of scrimmage, putting them out of position and giving Blake an opportunity to make big plays over the top. However, Baltimore is so sound up front that they won't have to take such precautionary measures and, as a result, they're secondary will be waiting for Blake to air it out.

Bengals offensive coordinator Ken Anderson is well aware that Ravens DC Duane Starks has been struggling, so he'll more than likely have Blake throwing in his direction. TE Tony McGee should see a lot of the football when matched against SS Kim Herring, because Herring has been hurting in man-to-man situations. Blake has been throwing on a line and will not hesitate to try and fit the ball in the smallest of spots.

The Ravens run defense features several defenders aligning themselves in the box, with corners and safeties playing off the ball, so expect Blake to see throw underneath to Scott and Pickens.

Baltimore offense vs. Cincinnati defense
RAVENS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 17
Pass 23
Tot. Yds. 22
Scoring 12
Int's allowed 17
Sacks allowed 48
   
BENGALS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 14
vs. Pass 28
Total yds. allowed 24
# of Ints. 11
# of Sacks 32
Turnover differential -2
Priest Holmes dictates the pattern of the Baltimore offense, bringing stability to an otherwise tempermental attack. The Bengals will try and shut Holmes down with their recently implemented 4-3 defense, knowing that the elimination of the Baltimore running game will force QB Tony Banks to shoulder the load.

The Ravens passing game is ranked 23rd in the NFL and Banks is an errant passer when he is counted on to move the offense by himself; he tries to do too much and has a tendency to force balls. Cincinnati is ranked 24th overall, but since switching to a four-man front three weeks ago the Bengals have been able to keep opposing running games in check, causing teams to try and beat them through the air.

The outcome of Saints game was not indicative of how the Raven offensive line played, inside OC Jeff Mitchell and OGs Jeff Blackshear and Edwin Mulitalo couldn't keep the Saint DTs from penetrating the middle and RB Priest Holmes was knocked off course in the backfield several times.

The communication up front has been poor by the Ravens, so look for Cincinnati LB Takeo Spikes to blitz with frequency and DTs Kimo von Oelhoffen and Michael Blankston to stunt, keeping the Ravens offensive line confused. This will leave most of the Baltimore running success in the hands of FB Chuck Evans, who will need to aid his offensive line in the neutralization of the Bengal front seven for Holmes to be productive.

Baltimore's wide receivers will not get any help form TE Greg Delong, who has had trouble getting downfield and attracting the attention of opposing safeties and linebackers. DeLong's inability to threaten pass defenders has resulted in extensive blitz packages against Banks. Cincinnati will send OLBs Foley and Wilson often, as the two have been rushing the passer well in recent weeks.

Raven WRs Patrick Johnson and Qadry Ismail have been reliant on their speed to free themselves from opposing secondaries, and this won't change against the Bengals, who'll be starting new addition Tom Carter at corner this week.

From watching film, it becomes obvious that the Cincinnati corners aren't playing the ball and are giving up big plays as a result. This could lead to disaster against the Baltimore's big-play passing attack. Banks has been throwing the long ball with accuracy; ironically, he's been inefficient getting the ball to his receivers on intermediate routes. Billick will let Banks get vertical early and often, exercising his quarterback's strength while keying on the Bengal DB's weakness.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CIN BAL
Punt return avg. 3 28
Kickoff return avg. 2 18
Opp. punt return avg. 24 20
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 6 10
Time of possession 15 26
The Ravens return units have been consistent of late, but need to work on breaking a big return. Punter Kyle Richardson isn't doing the Ravens defense any good by averaging just over 35 yards a punt. Matt Stover continues to impress kicking field goals. The Cincinnati kicking games have been iffy, but the returns units have been prolific. Tremain Mack and Craig Yeast are both breaking big returns with consistency. On the other side, PK Doug Pelfrey has rebounded from a slow start, but the punts by Costello have left much to be desired.

Key matchups
  • Ravens OLT John Ogden vs. Bengals RDE Michael Blankston
    Blankston will try to use his quicks to get upfield on Ogden, in an effort to force Ravens RB Priest Holmes back inside, where he doesn't pose the threat he does when running outside of the tackles. Ogden has been doing a better job of letting opposing defensive lineman take themselves out of the play by guiding them upfield where they are out of position to make plays. Expect to see Ogden's crafty approach lure Blankston upfield, creating running lanes for Holmes.

  • Bengals TE Tony McGee vs. Ravens SS Kim Herring
    McGee has cultivated his ability to threaten the deep third of the field, but waiting there for him on Sunday will be Herring, whose zone coverage is at its best when in the area of opposing tight ends. Herring has the ability to get physical with tight ends when the ball arrives; this could shake up both McGee and the Cincinnati passing game.

  • Ravens RB Charles Evans vs. Bengals defensive front 7
    Each member of the Cincinnati front seven will become familiar with Evans by game's end. His role within the offense is multifaceted and crucial. Banks has benefited from Evans' pass blocking and Holmes from his run blocking. However, by stunting up front and mixing blitzes, Cincinnati can confuse Evans, who has trouble with assignments when faced with different looks up front.

    Cincinnati will win if...
  • Dillon can hit holes quickly. The Ravens defense is too fast to allow for any indecisive running. Dillon will have to shoot to his gaps or they will be gone in no time.

  • The blitz can get to Banks. If Banks gets hit a couple of times early by the Cincinnati front it will alter his release for the rest of the game. Banks will rush throws and bounce in the pocket, both could lead to turnovers.

  • McGee gets incorporated into the offense. Tony McGee can get down the middle of the field in a hurry, but the Baltimore secondary won't attend to this until he catches a pass two. If Blake can find him early, it will hang the Bengal defense out to dry on the outside, creating mismatches.

    Baltimore will win if...

  • Banks values the ball. Tony Banks is capable of throwing errant passes and fumbling the ball when under pressure. In a close game like this one, one of those will be too many. If Banks cannot value the ball, Baltimore will lose.

  • Holmes is able to run between the tackles. Holmes is accustomed to running outside and opposing defenses are catching on. Holmes will need to squeeze through a couple of holes over his guards and center to keep Cincinnati honest.

  • Their CBs can shut down Scott and Pickens Blake will be looking towards Pickens and Scott all day. If the Baltimore CBs can shut them down, Blake will have to look for his second or third option. Blake can not check off receivers well, so solid coverage of Scott and Pickens will lead to incompletions and possibly turnovers.

    The War Room edge
    Cincinnati's offense has been getting it done lately, but the Ravens' talented defensive unit will prove to be too much. Cincinnati's Corey Dillon won't be able to find any running lanes and Blake will be rushed by the Baltimore defensive line and LBs when passing. Priest Holmes will be the key for Baltimore, as his outside running will spread the Cincinnati defense thin, enabling Banks to throw down the seems of the field. The Ravens will balance their offensive attack and keep the Bengals defense on the field wearing them down by game's end. Cincinnati has been playing well, but against weak defensive units. The Ravens will serve as a wake up call for an offense that is a few years away. Baltimore's new-found offensive equity will put up a lot of points and lead the Ravens to another win.

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