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Thursday, December 23
War Room: Broncos at Lions


Denver offense vs. Detroit defense
BRONCOS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 13
Pass 11
Tot. Yds. 12
Scoring 15
Int's allowed 17
Sacks allowed 29
   
LIONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 5
vs. Pass 31
Total yds. allowed 20
# of Ints. 13
# of Sacks 44
Turnover differential +8
Denver QB Brian Griese could be in for his biggest day of the season against a soft Lions secondary that has given up 598 yards and six touchdowns the past two weeks to a pair of rookie quarterbacks (Shaun King and Cade McNown). Injuries can be blamed for their struggles but Detroit simply isn't playing aggressive on the corners, where they allowed Chicago's outside receiver duo to rack up a combined 21 receptions last Sunday.

RDC Dwayne Harper, who was signed prior to last week's game after a 16-month playing hiatus, was burned repeatedly last week by Marcus Robinson and the same could happen on Saturday against WRs Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey. Smith is the Broncos' hottest receiver, totaling 31 receptions, 439 yards and three touchdowns over the past month and he shouldn't have much problem getting deep versus one of the worst pass defenses in the league (239.5 yards per game).

The Lions desperately need a big game from their front four. Griese is doing a much better job of improvising outside the pocket and it will be up to DEs Tracy Scroggins and Robert Porcher to keep contain on the flanks -- something they didn't do a good job of last week. Scroggins' quick first step will put a huge test for LOT Trey Teague in passing situations. Teague, who will start in place of an injured Tony Jones, gained valuable experience earlier in the season but the boisterous Silverdome crowd will make it tough for him to hear Griese's cadence, allowing Scroggins to get the jump upfield.

Mike Shanahan will do his best to create some offensive balance with RB Olandis Gary, who set a franchise record with 183 yards on 22 carries last week against Seattle. Gary, who probably will be without the services of valuable FB Howard Griffith, will find the yards tougher to come by against a Detroit run defense that is giving up just 85.0 yards per contest. If Griffith can't play, look for his loss to have a profound impact on the Broncos offense. Gary and Griffith have developed timing and chemistry that will be lost with backup Detron Smith in the lineup.

Without Griffith, the offensive line better come to play, particularly LOG Mark Schlereth, who will be in for his second big test in as many weeks. After squaring off with Seattle's Cortez Kennedy last week, Schlereth must play strong against Detroit's Luther Ellis. Schlereth's chronic knee problems weren't an issue last week but Ellis should be able to beat him with his quickness at the point of attack.

Detroit offense vs. Denver defense
LIONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 27
Pass 9
Tot. Yds. 16
Scoring 13
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 52
   
BRONCOS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 17
vs. Pass 8
Total yds. allowed 9
# of Ints. 13
# of Sacks 42
Turnover differential -4
The return of QB Charlie Batch should give this team the emotional boost it needs coming off two tough losses. Batch can't be judged on last week's relief performance because the outcome was basically decided when he entered in the second half. After watching his teammates drop five passes against the Bears, Batch was vocal about his displeasure with the receiver corps, letting guys like WR Herman Moore (two drops) know how much they let down the team.

Denver's pass defense (185.1 yards per game) has been solid all season but a couple of breakdowns in coverage could have cost them the win last week. Seattle deep threat Joey Galloway ran past Dale Carter on a couple of different occasions, one that could have cost them the game in overtime.

The Lions need to work the field vertically on Sunday with WRs Johnnie Morton and Germaine Crowell more than they have the past two weeks. Gus Frerotte took a couple shots downfield last Sunday but focused on the short passing game once a couple of his deep balls were intercepted. The Broncos don't have a corner that can run with Crowell and inexperienced Darrius Johnson is making just his second start of the season.

Look for Detroit to open things up and take some chances in a must-win game. If Batch's fractured thumb prevents him from throwing the ball deep, the Lions will need a big game from TE David Sloan, who continues to fight through a fairly serious toe injury. OLB Bill Romanowski, one of the top cover 'backers in the league, will be tested by Sloan's athleticism, but look for him to win the majority of battles.

The key to Denver's success all season has been their ability to stop the run. If they can't stop the Lions running game, the Broncos have little chance at pulling out a Christmas victory. Last Sunday's victory over Seattle was the first time in eight games they had allowed over 100 yards rushing and still won.

Detroit has one of the worst ground attacks in the league and RB Greg Hill's straightline running style won't work well against Denver's versatile linebacker corps. The Lions would be better off spreading the carries between scatback Sedrick Irvin and cutback runner Ron Rivers, who the team is hopeful will return on Saturday.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category DEN DET
Punt return avg. 23 12
Kickoff return avg. 9 23
Opp. punt return avg. 30 17
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 16 14
Time of possession 9 24
Denver RS Chris Watson helped raise his punt return average from 5.5 to 7.7 with an 81-yard touchdown last week against Seattle. Watson could have some success against Detroit's faltering coverage units that are beginning to feel the impact of the team's numerous injuries. Chicago P Todd Sauerbrun got outstanding hang-time on his punts last week, holding Lions' RS Desmond Howard to nothing but three fair catches. Denver's Tom Rouen, who leads the league in punting, will probably do the same on Saturday. This game could easily come down to arguably the top two kickers in the NFL. Jason Hanson and Jason Elam each missed long attempts last week but the Silverdome's controlled environment is conducive to their big legs.

Key matchups
  • Detroit LOT Tony Ramirez vs. Denver RDE Maa Tunavasa
    The loss of starter Ray Roberts really hurts the Lions up front. Ramirez has very little experience on the left side, but Bobby Ross has few other options. Tunavasa should be able to beat him off the edge with his quickness when the Broncos stunt. If Ramirez doesn't get his hands on Tunavasa and beat him with size, it will be a long day for Lion quarterbacks.

  • Denver WRs Smith & McCaffrey vs. Detroit DCs Bailey & Westbrook
    The Bears' outside receivers scorched the Lions last Sunday for a combined 21 receptions and 264 yards and the same could happen this week against the Broncos' explosive duo. Detroit is giving big cushions and allowing receivers to catch the ball underneath. Smith and McCaffrey must concentrate on getting big yards after the catch.

  • Detroit LDE Robert Porcher vs. Denver ROT Matt Lepsis
    Aside from Porcher, there isn't anyone stepping up for the Lions. Lepsis matches up well athletically with Porcher but the Lions' Pro Bowler should beat him with his craftiness off the corner. The key for Porcher will be to use his upper strength and leverage to beat Lepsis with an occasional bull rush.

    Denver will win if...
  • QB Griese is patient and takes what the Lions give him. Chicago rookie Cade McNown didn't connect on many throws down the field but he was accurate in the short and intermediate passing games, picking apart Detroit's soft coverage. Injuries have decimated the Lions' secondary and they are now playing a lot of loose zone defense that Griese should beat.

  • They dictate the pace of the game. The Broncos are at their best when RB Gary starts well and takes the pressure off the passing game. Denver needs to sustain drives in order to wear down Detroit's defense and prevent them from feeding off the crowd's intensity. Because the Lions have a hard time running the ball, an up-temp game works against Mike Shanahan's team.

  • The secondary takes WRs Crowell and Morton out of the game. Denver must force WR Moore, TE Sloan, and the running back corps to beat them. Aside from the two starting receivers, the Lions don't have many other guys making plays. Look for Denver to overplay the outside receivers and make Detroit beat them down the middle of the field.

    Detroit will win if...

  • They eliminate turnovers. Detroit had little chance of pulling out a win last week due to a sloppy first half effort. Frerotte's throws were off the mark all day and Hill's lost fumble was nothing more than carelessness. The Lions had their share of chances against Chicago but mental errors prevented them from posing a serious threat.

  • The RBs do a solid job in blitz pickup. Denver defensive coordinator Greg Robinson likes to blitz his outside linebackers more than any coach in the league. The absence of starting LOT Ray Roberts leaves a marginally talented offensive line just that much weaker. The onus will be on RB's Hill, Irvin, and Schlesinger to provide help, especially off the edges.

  • They defend well on third down. The banged up secondary allowed the Bears to convert 5-of-11 third down opportunities last week -- an embarrassingly high figure considering it was done with an inexperienced rookie at quarterback. The front four generated good pressure last week but their failure to keep McNown in the pocket was costly. The guys up front must do a better job of finishing their pass rush on Saturday.

    The War Room edge
    The wheels fell off for the Motor City boys last week in Chicago and they must rebound from their worst effort of the season. Conversely, Denver played the role of spoiler last Sunday against the Seahawks and don't appear to be giving up. The Lions' secondary couldn't have played much worse than they did against the Bears and their receiver corps didn't make any plays. In a game that was originally supposed to showcase Barry Sanders and Terrell Davis, the league will have to settle for Greg Hill and Olandis Gary. Detroit always seems to play well at home in nationally televised games and they need this one a lot more than the Broncos. Charles Batch gives Lions fans a nice gift with the win.

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