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Monday, October 25
War Room: Falcons at Steelers


Atlanta offense vs. Pittsburgh defense
FALCONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 28
Pass 12
Tot. Yds. 21
Scoring 30
Int's allowed 6
Sacks allowed 16
   
STEELERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 10
vs. Pass 2
Total yds. allowed 2
No. of INTs 7
No. of Sacks 13
Turnover differential 0
The Falcons have been crippled by the departure of WR Tony Martin, the injury to starting RB Jamal Anderson and the string of injuries to starting QB Chris Chandler. The once-feared Atlanta running attack ranks 27th in the NFL at 77 yards per game. Replacing RB Anderson was Byron Hanspard, who looked effective in limited duty, but couldn't carry the load when getting a lot of carries. Ken Oxendine stepped in and has shown that he is certainly a speed upgrade over Hanspard, but his durability is questionable -- fumbling three times in the last two games. One of these guys has to emerge as the premier back if the Falcons offense is to show improvement over the coming weeks.

At QB, Chandler's injury problem -- a perpetually pulled hamstring -- has kept Atlanta's passing game from developing any semblance of consistency. Back-up QB Tony Graziani has been ineffective most of the time, either holding on to the football for too long or forcing the ball into coverage.

The Falcons are 17-4 when Chandler plays, and 5-12 when he does not. So first and foremost, for the Falcons to win, Chandler needs to play the entire game. Therefore, the Atlanta offensive line must improve in pass protection, particularly LOT Bob Whitfield (who was pushed around by Rams RDE Grant Wistrom last week) and LOG Bob Hallen (who was twice penalized for holding). If the Falcons can give Chandler enough time and keep him from being flushed from the pocket, he can accurately and effectively deliver the football and maintain his health. The Falcons will look to get the ball out to their receivers quickly to protect Chandler, so look for a lot of slant routes and quick outs.

The Steeler defense has been a force for most of the season, particularly the team's front four. The play of DE Orpheus Roye and DE/NT Jeremy Staat has anchored the unit. Roye is an outstanding athlete whose speed and playmaking ability allow him to be a factor all over the field. Staat is an extremely strong guy, with good hands who is able to neutralize opposing linemen at the point of attack -- forcing opposing running backs out of their intended holes and into the arms of Pittsburgh defenders.

Opponents have been averaging only 15.5 points per game against the Steelers. The team's only glaring weakness has been against opponents whom excel at throwing the football, as starting corners Dewayne Washington and Chad Scott have been repeatedly victimized. Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Jim Haslett needs to find a happy medium in this week's defensive game plan -- not exposing Scott or Washington in single coverage against veteran WR Curtis Mathis, but putting enough pressure on Chandler to force him to scramble on a bad leg or to get the ball out quickly, lessening his effectiveness. The Steelers' front seven is capable of putting pressure on Chandler, and Scott and Washington should see backside help from the team's safeties. Pittsburgh's LB's will have to have a good day in pass coverage, as Atlanta rookie TE Reggie Kelly is emerging as a viable big-play threat.

Pittsburgh offense vs. Atlanta defense
STEELERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 8
Pass 28
Tot. Yds. 23
Scoring 18
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 14
   
FALCONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 29
vs. Pass 7
Total yds. allowed 20
No. of INTs 4
No. of Sacks 12
Turnover differential -14
Just when Pittsburgh's running game finally seemed to get on track against the Bengals last week, the Steelers could be without Pro-Bowl OC Dermonti Dawson against the Falcons on Monday night. Dawson is integral to the Steelers' running game, as he is strong enough to control the league's best defensive tackles and great at creating inside running room for RB Jerome Bettis. Dawson uses his deceptive quickness to get off his first block and pick up a linebacker or secondary player to create even more room for Bettis. A healthy Dawson will be necessary against Atlanta, as the Steelers need to use their brawn to blow the Falcons off the ball. Bettis does not have the sideline-to-sideline speed to get outside against Atlanta's quick linebackers, so Pittsburgh will need to pound the ball between the tackles to find success on the ground.

Given the state of the team's air attack, a solid ground game will be crucial to its success. QB Kordell Stewart wasn't asked to do a lot in last week's victory over Cincinnati, but was effective at what he was asked to do. Stewart threw a lot of passes in the short-to-intermediate range, but wasn't required to throw the ball downfield. Stewart found rookie WR Troy Edwards four times for 58 yards, and it appears that the two are starting to find some chemistry together. Stewart will have to look downfield more against the Falcons, because Pittsburgh is going to have to stretch the field against a talented defense if the Steelers want to run the ball effectively.

The problems in Atlanta this season for the most part have not been on the defensive side of the ball. The inability of the team's offense to sustain drives means that the defense is often fatigued late in games, when opponents begin to find success running the football. The Falcons secondary was bolstered last week by the return of second-year corner Michael Booker, who was effective as the nickel corner. As a unit, the secondary was not burned for too many big plays -- a feat against the high-octane St. Louis offense.

The Falcons' defensive unit will have a much easier week against the Steelers, who do not have an effective vertical passing game. This should allow Atlanta defensive coordinator Rich Brooks to game plan an all-out assault on the Pittsburgh running game. The Steelers will be faced with a steady dose of eight-man fronts and Stewart will have to prove that he can be effective throwing the football against the Falcon secondary.

St. Louis RB Marshall Faulk ran all over the Falcons last week, who were undermanned at linebacker with both MLB Jesse Tuggle and ROLB Keith Brooking sidelined with injuries. Run-stopper Tuggle should play Monday, which will give the Falcons a much-needed boost against the run, but Brooking is sidelined for at least two weeks with a knee injury. Brooking's athleticism will be missed in pass coverage, but whoever replaces Brooking -- Henri Crockett or Ruffin Hamilton -- shouldn't have a difficult time against Pittsburgh TE Mark Bruener, who is used more as a third tackle than a receiver.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category ATL PIT
Punt return avg. 28 9
Kickoff return avg. 24 18
Opp. punt return avg. 2 29
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 30 13
Time of possession 22 4
The Steelers' punt coverage team ranks second to last in the NFL, so there could be some fireworks this week as they face dynamic Atlanta return man, Tim Dwight. Dwight is capable (if fully recovered from a hamstring pull) of breaking the big play at any moment. Pittsburgh PK Kris Brown has overcome a shaky preseason and is now the only kicker left in the NFL who has hit on 100% of his FG opportunities this year.

Key matchups
  • Pittsburgh QB Kordell Stewart vs. Atlanta Defensive Coordinator Rich Brooks
    Stewart has done a better job in the last couple of weeks of cutting down on his mistakes, although he is not making a lot of big plays. Brooks is a very smart defensive coordinator who has been saddled with a lot of injuries on this Atlanta defense. He will try to confuse Stewart by disguising his coverages and blitzes. With Atlanta's offense struggling so much, they could really use offensive mistakes and turnovers by Pittsburgh to give them better field position.

  • Atlanta OC Robbie Tobeck vs. Pittsburgh NT Joel Steed
    Steed is one of the best NT's in the business, and he usually requires double-teams, which opens up the blitz for the Pittsburgh ILB's. Atlanta must hold up inside, or QB Chris Chandler will be in for a long day, and if Tobeck can handle Steed by himself, it would be a huge bonus.

  • Atlanta DL vs. Pittsburgh OL
    Although they are physically beat up, the strength of the Falcon defense is in their DL. They are very aggressive, and if they have a big day and win this battle in the trenches, they should be able to neutralize Jerome Bettis and contain Kordell Stewart.

    Atlanta will win if...
  • They can force QB Kordell Stewart into mistakes and turnovers. Stewart has played almost error-free football in the last two weeks, but Pittsburgh is also running a very conservative low-risk offense. Look for Atlanta to really come after him and try to confuse him and take away the Steeler run game, which will force Stewart to make plays in the passing game.

  • They can run the football and control the clock. This Falcon offense is simply not very explosive with very few offensive weapons. The best chance to win games is to make it a very low-scoring, run-oriented game that depends on field position and good defense. Their best hope here is to slug it out with the Steelers and steal this game in the fourth quarter, but they cannot afford to turn the ball over against a good Steeler defense.

  • QB Chris Chandler can play and gets good OL protection. Chandler is still a very brittle QB who can be easily knocked out of a game. When he has protection he can make plays in the passing game, but his OL must neutralize the Atlanta DL and keep him from getting hit.

    Pittsburgh will win if...

  • They can get to the Atlanta QB with their blitz. The best way to beat the Falcons is to knock Chandler out of the game, and that is exactly what the Steelers will try to do. They are very talented in their defensive front-seven and they are a very effective blitzing group.

  • They can get their run game untracked. They finally showed signs of improvement last week, as Jerome Bettis had a solid day, but they are still not as consistent as they would like. The Steelers are at their best when they can pound it out on offense, play good defense, and not force QB Kordell Stewart to make a lot of plays in the passing game.

  • QB Kordell Stewart doesn't self-destruct. Stewart has played well in the last couple of weeks, but he is still capable of making mistakes when pressured. Turnovers and field position could be a critical factor in this game, and Stewart must not give the game away.

    The War Room edge
    The Falcons don't come close to resembling the Super Bowl team of a year ago, and although the Steelers are struggling, QB Kordell Stewart is making fewer mistakes, and RB Jerome Bettis is starting to revive their run game. The last thing Atlanta needs is a very physical Monday night game in Pittsburgh. Neither one of these teams will likely make the playoffs, but there will be a lot of heavy hitting in this one and the Steelers could embarrass the Falcons in front of a national audience.

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