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Friday, September 24
War Room: Bengals at Panthers


Cincinnati offense vs. Carolina defense
BENGALS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 10
Pass 26
Tot. Yds. 19
Scoring 14
Int's allowed 9
Sacks allowed 13
   
PANTHERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 6
vs. Pass 24
Total yds. allowed 19
Ints. 24
Sacks 11
Turnover differential -8
Coming into the season the Bengals appeared to have the pieces in place to field a formidable offense. After last Sunday's mistake-laden performance against San Diego, that hardly appears to be the case.

QB Jeff Blake & Co. jumped out to an early 7-0 lead but then did everything in their power to lose the game. The Bengals' offense turned the ball over five times, including four fumbles, and kept possession of the ball for only 21:30, leaving their defense on the field for an exhaustive period of time. The majority of Cincinnati's troubles are fundamental mistakes that should be correctable if offensive coordinator Ken Anderson begins to instill some discipline in his unit. An offense cannot afford to have botched handoffs and blown blitz pickup assignments in the second week of the regular season.

The Panthers' run defense has been exposed in the first two games, so look for Cincy to get RB Corey Dillon untracked early. Going up against arguably the best run defense in the league a week ago, Dillon was held to just 37 yards on 12 carries, but he should find some room behind LOT Rod Jones and ex-Jet LOG Matt O'Dwyer.

The right side of Carolina's front four has been suspect thus far, in part due to RDT Sean Gilbert's sore ribs, failing at the point of attack on Jags RB James Stewart's 44-yard touchdown run. The Bengals should get a boost in the run game this week when starting FB Brian Milne returns to the lineup. Milne will provide Dillon with better running room than he had last week against the Chargers. The Bengals need to control the clock this week and will run plenty of off-tackle plays behind Milne to do so.

QB Jeff Blake left last Sunday's game with a shoulder in jury and will be replaced this week by rookie Akili Smith. Last week, Blake was sharp on the team's opening 66-yard touchdown drive, going 3-for-3 for 40 yards, but his effectiveness waned as the game progressed.

Although he played admirably despite last week's circumstances, Smith is not ready to assume the reigns of this offense. Smith's prolonged contract holdout will now come back to haunt him and his team. Due to his unfamiliarity with the system and lack of reps in practice, the Bengals will be forced to eliminate about half of their playbook on Sunday, which puts an even greater burden on the running game. After a couple of full weeks back with the team, WR Carl Pickens should be over the effects of missing training camp, which should help Smith.

The key again for Carolina will be the play of CBs Eric Davis and Doug Evans. After giving up a huge play in Week 1 to the Saints' Keith Poole, Evans responded well last week against the prolific Jaguar passing game. Although WR Jimmy Smith caught 10 passes last Sunday, the Panthers defense did an outstanding job of keeping plays in front of them. In fact, Carolina only gave up two completions over 15 yards.

Expect the Bengals to try get Smith out of the pocket as much as possible in order for him to make plays with his athleticism. Smith will test the perimeter early in hopes of hitting on a big play, which will force second-year SS Mike Minter, who had eight tackles a week ago, to play honest run defense.

Carolina offense vs. Cincinnati defense
PANTHERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 23
Pass 18
Tot. Yds. 23
Scoring 26
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 3
   
BENGALS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 30
vs. Pass 7
Total yds. allowed 20
Ints. 29
Sacks 13
Turnover differential -3
Despite taking off the first and third quarters, Carolina's offensive unit played well enough for the team to pull out a win last week. The Panthers have run the ball effectively in the first two games, but they must continue to do a better job of controlling the clock.

Carolina is running the ball only 38 percent of its offensive downs, which is an extremely low number considering they have not had to play from behind in either of the first two contests. Look for RBs Tim Biakabutuka, who is averaging 6.6 yards per carry on the season, to continue sharing the workload with Fred Lane. The biggest area of improvement from last season has been the run blocking ability of the offensive line. New position coach Tony Wise has his unit playing smart, sound football, but they will be tested by an underrated Cincinnati run defense.

In two games, the Bengals have held Tennessee's Eddie George to 3.5 yards and San Diego's Natrone Means to 2.9 yards per carry respectively. ILB Brian Simmons, who had 15 tackles a week ago, is surprisingly outplaying fellow second-year man Takeo Spikes.

The Panthers' passing game is again in good hands with Steve Buerlein, but he has had very little time to sit in the pocket and make his reads. Buerlein has completed over 55 percent of his passes and has thrown only two interceptions, despite being sacked 11 times. While they have improved in the run game, Carolina's offensive line is really struggling, especially LOT Clarence Jones.

Fortunately for the Panthers, Cincinnati does not have a true pass rush threat on the right side to test Jones. If RDE Jevon Langford struggles to create pressure early, look for the Bengals to send OLBs Reinard Wilson and Adrian Ross off the edge, putting pressure on Biakabutuka and Lane to recognize and pick up the blitz.

With an accurate passer like Buerlein, the Panthers can afford to be patient offensively but they will surely look to expose the Bengals' suspect secondary-namely rookie LDC Rodney Heath, who will be making only his second start. San Diego had success going to Michael Ricks last week and Carolina's Mushin Muhammad should cause similar problems with his height.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CIN CAR
Punt return avg. 16 20
Kickoff return avg. 6 18
Opp. punt return avg. 30 7
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 2 20
Time of possession 19 28
Carolina picked up RS Eric Metcalf in order to breathe some life into its return units, but he has yet to make an impact. Metcalf, who has noticeably lost some of his burst, will be going up against a stingy kickoff cover unit. While they have not had great success against punts, the Bengals are holding opposing kickoff return men to an average of 15.8 per return.

Both Doug Pelfrey (Cincinnati) and John Kasay (Carolina) are solid veteran PKs but neither has been tested this season. A huge surprise for the Bengals has been the punting of free agent signee Will Brice, who is averaging over 45 yards per attempt.

Keep an eye on Cincinnati RS Damon Griffin, who starred with the 49ers in the pre-season. Griffin had an up-and-down performance last week against San Diego, taking one kick back for a 96-yard score and fumbling another that led directly to a San Diego field goal.

Key matchups

  • Carolina FB William Floyd vs. Cincinnati ILBs Spikes & Simmons
    The Panthers have been effective running the ball, but they are not moving the chains in critical situations. Cincy's young 'backers are getting much better at shedding lead blocks, which means Floyd must be on top of his game.

  • Carolina WR Mushin Muhammad vs. Cincinnati LCB Rodney Heath
    Muhammad is emerging as Buerlein's "go-to" receiver, and he is now mature enough to take advantage of young corners like Heath. Cincy's rookie corner had trouble with Michael Ricks' size last week, and Muhammad will pose similar problems.

  • Cincinnati QB Akili Smith vs. Carolina front seven
    This is definitely much sooner than Bruce Coslet would have liked to play his rookie. Panthers defensive coordinator John Marshall will give Smith plenty of looks up front in order to rattle the rookie.

    Cincinnati will win if...

  • The offensive line controls the trenches. The play of the OL is imperative for two reasons. QB Smith will need time to make his reads, and if Dillon gets untracked early it will take pressure off the passing game.

  • The front seven puts pressure on Buerlein and forces him to convert third down situations with people in his face. The Panthers were only 2-of-9 on converting third downs last week, mainly because Jacksonville applied consistent pressure.

  • The defense forces some turnovers early. The Bengals need momentum on the road, and they can't expect their rookie quarterback to give them any. The defense must set the table.

    Carolina will win if...

  • They shut down RB Dillon early and force QB Smith to beat their veteran corners in man-to-man matchups on the outside. The Bengals will not win this game if Dillon doesn't shoulder the load.

  • QB Buerlein makes good decisions with the football and doesn't try to force things. Buerlein is a heady player, but constant pressure from his backside (LOT Clarence Jones) has him a bit antsy in the pocket.

  • They can develop a ground-control attack with Biakabutuka and Lane. The Panthers have run the ball well this season but they haven't had the type of move-the-chains production that wins football games.

    The War Room edge
    It's hard enough to win on the road in the NFL, let alone do it with a rookie quarterback. Cincinnati simply doesn't have enough talent defensively to compensate for the loss of Blake. The Panthers played admirably last week but they fell short against one of the most talented teams in the league. George Seifert has his players fighting for him, and he will be rewarded on Sunday with his first win as a Panther.

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