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Friday, September 24
War Room: Falcons at Rams

The War Room

Atlanta offense vs. St. Louis defense
Atlanta's offense suffered a nightmarish loss against the Cowboys on Monday night when All-Pro RB Jamal Anderson went down for the season with a torn ACL. Anderson will be sorely missed. Playing in his place is Byron Hanspard, a guy who brings less power but more speed to the offense. Coach Dan Reeves will look to get Hanspard going early against the Rams, who are sound against the run, surrendering only 58 yards to Baltimore in their Week 1 showdown.

The Falcons will also get a boost with the healthy return of starting QB Chris Chandler, who sat out the Monday night game with a pulled hamstring. Chandler's backups Tony Graziani and Danny Kannell were ineffective against an average Dallas defense, and Atlanta is a different team with Chandler in the lineup.

Atlanta needs Chandler and his receivers, Terrance Mathis and Chris Calloway, to find a rhythm. It is now apparent that the Falcons truly miss departed WR Tony Martin, whose vertical speed opened up the underneath routes for his teammates. The Falcons are averaging just 10.5 ppg this season without Martin. Look for the Falcons to use TE O.J. Santiago more this week. Santiago has been underutilized the past two weeks and he is basically Atlanta's top option on seam routes.

Tthe Rams defense is definitely coming into its own, particularly along the defensive line. Defensive ends Grant Wistrom and Kevin Carter are both quick, explosive players who are strong at the point of attack. Carter in particular is developing ferocious pass rushing skills and could give Atlanta trouble.

In the middle, defensive tackles D'Marco Farr and Ray Agnew are both strong against the run and could give Hanspard fits. The Rams' front four is one of the teams' strong points, but depth is a concern here, and this could hurt the team late in the game if the Falcons are running the ball to hold onto a lead. The Rams will need to pressure Chris Chandler, who is not comfortable throwing on the run, and will attempt to do so with a variety of blitz packages. The only risk in doing so is that this will expose the secondary to single coverage situations.

Look for the Rams' linebackers to try and jam O.J. Santiago at the line of scrimmage in order to prevent him from running deep seam routes.

St. Louis offense vs. Atlanta defense
St. Louis' offense looked sharp in the opener against a talented Raven defense. QB Kurt Warner threw for over 300 yards, and Marshall Faulk had 126 combined yards in his regular season debut with the Rams.

Coach Dick Vermeil has three explosive WRs in Isaac Bruce, Az Hakim and Torry Holt. This enables his offense to spread the field using three receiver sets, which makes it easier for Faulk to carry the ball out of the backfield.

The Rams will have to run the ball this week against a seasoned and talented defensive front four, and one of the most physical linebacking corps in the league. Orlando Pace has been developing into one of the better LOTs in football, and proved it Week 1 in dominating Ravens Pro-Bowl RDE Michael McCrary. This performance has an asterisk next to it because McCrary was coming off a prolonged holdout, but it is proof positive that Pace is beginning to fulfill his promise. This week, Pace will face another Pro-Bowler in Falcons' RDE Chuck Smith, who is considered by most scouts an overrated rush end. In passing situations, Pace could be matched up against rookie speed rusher Patrick Kerney, who looked strong at times during the preseason. Pace will have to be at the top of his game to protect Warner's blind side against this combination of power and speed.

After the Falcons' 0-2 start, one thing is for sure -- the defense is not to blame. The unit allowed only 14 points in a Week 1 loss to the Vikings. In Monday night's loss to the Cowboys, one Dallas touchdown was the return of a Danny Kannell interception, while another was set up by the return of a Tony Graziani interception to the Atlanta 10 yard line.

The Falcon front seven put up a valiant fight against a well-honed Dallas offensive unit, and kept the Falcons in the game until the end. This week, the unit will face an offensive line with one of the best up-and-coming LOTs in the game in Orlando Pace. Cornerbacks Ray Buchanan and Ronnie Bradford will face a stern test against a deep Rams receiving corps.

With the Rams deep speed on the outside, defensive coordinator Rich Brooks will have to see that his corners get help from the safeties. At the same time this opens up the middle for big plays to Rams TE Roland Williams. Atlanta's linebackers, particularly ROLB Keith Brooking, have the speed to take Williams out of the game -- the Falcons defense has to pay careful attention to Williams in goal-line situations, as he caught a short TD pass in Week 1.

Atlanta needs to put pressure on Rams QB Kurt Warner and not give him time to look for his dangerous receivers. In the past, Atlanta has been able to do so without taking big risks in the secondary. LDE Lester Archambeau and RDE Chuck Smith have shown the ability to pressure the passer in one-on-one situations and should have success doing so this week against the Rams. A guy to watch is rookie pass rush specialist Patrick Kerney, who may see more time this week, as the Falcons defense has only two sacks in the first two games. Kerney is an athletic speed rusher who will only see action in passing situations, but who could make a positive impact for the Falcons.

Special teams
Atlanta KOR Tim Dwight is one of the most explosive special team players in the NFL. Although Dwight has yet to break one this year, it is only a matter of time before he does. The Rams will undoubtedly kick away from Dwight -- in Week 1, the team punted out of bounds four times to avoid kicking to Jermane Lewis.

The Rams have a dangerous punt return guy of their own in Az Hakim. Hakim was solid against the Ravens, and broke a 35-yard gain midway through the third quarter. Returning kicks for the Rams is Tony Horne, who averaged 20.3 yards per return against Baltimore.

Atlanta PK Morton Anderson is getting up in years and missed a game tying field goal against the Vikings. Given the anemic state of the Falcon offense of late, Anderson needs to revert to his old, reliable self if the Falcons are to win the tight games.

Key matchups

Atlanta LOG Calvin Collins v. St. Louis RDT Ray Agnew
Agnew is one of the better run-stuffing tackles in the NFL, and could play an integral part in this game. Collins needs to control Agnew, because Hanspard does not have the quicks to get outside. He will earn his money running between the tackles, and Collins' ability to control Agnew will be key to the Falcons' success.

St. Louis WR Isaac Bruce v. Atlanta LDC Ray Buchanan
Bruce is the go-to guy for the Rams, while the Falcons rely on Buchanan to take such players out of the game. Buchanan has a tendency to gamble and in such situations, either makes a big play, or gets burned deep. This winner of this match-up could put his team over the top.

St. Louis LOT Orlando Pace v. Atlanta RDE Chuck Smith
Pace had a big game against Ravens RDE Michael McCrary, but in McCrary's defense, he wasn't at the top of his game, having missed most of training camp in a prolonged contract dispute. Smith will be a much tougher test for Pace, and his ability or inability to control Smith could be the difference in this game.

Atlanta will win if...

The team can run the ball effectively with Byron Hanspard, eating clock and keeping the Rams talented offense on the sideline.

Chris Chandler plays the full 60 minutes. Graziani is not the answer and Kanell hasn't seen enough reps.

Its defensive line overwhelms a less experienced Rams offensive line. This unit never stops hustling and will probably wear down the Rams in the third quarter.

St. Louis will win if...

They can get RB Faulk matched up on LBs in the passing game. If the Falcons' LBs don't do a good job of tackling in space Faulk should have a huge day.

Its defense can shut down the Falcons running game, forcing Chandler to throw the ball on third and long.

Its defensive line can get into the backfield and rough-up Chandler, forcing him to leave the pocket and make plays.

The War Room edge
With the addition of Marshall Faulk, St. Louis is a much-improved team. The Rams have three dangerous wide receivers and a multi-talented RB in Faulk, as well as an offensive line that is coming into its own. The Rams turned in a solid defensive performance against Baltimore, although Scott Mitchell probably had a lot to do with this. Atlanta is reeling after losing a close game to Minnesota in Week 1, and losing its star running back in Week 2. If Rams QB Kurt Warner is as good as he looked in one preseason and one regular season start, St. Louis shouldn't have a problem moving the football. On the other hand, Atlanta is missing both its workhorse running back and playmaking WR Tony Martin. This is a game that the Rams should win, given the teams' talent, but the Falcons are an experienced team, fighting for their lives and that makes them dangerous.

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