Friday, January 7
The War Room
Detroit offense vs. Washington defense
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LIONS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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28
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Pass
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8
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Tot. Yds.
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19
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Scoring
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15
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Int's allowed
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14
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Sacks allowed
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64
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REDSKINS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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27
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vs. Pass
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25
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Total yds. allowed
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27
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# of Ints.
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24
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# of Sacks
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40
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Turnover differential
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+12
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Question marks surround Detroit's quarterback situation but reserve QB Gus Frerotte will likely start in place of Charlie Batch, who re-injured his thumb in last week's loss at Minnesota. Frerotte looked a little rusty coming off the bench last Sunday but a week's worth of practice reps should have him ready for the 'Skins.
In their Week 13 meeting, Frerotte threw the ball extremely well (21-of-32, 280 yds., 1 TD) despite poor protection from his offensive line. The recent loss of LOT Ray Roberts will limit Frerotte's time in the pocket even further this week, putting an emphasis on more three- and five-step drop sequences that require great rhythm and timing.
Washington's pass rush, which improved steadily over the course of the season, recorded five sacks in the first meeting, with 3.5 from DEs Anthony Cook and Marco Coleman. That pair could have another big outing against Detroit reserve OTs Barrett Brooks and Mike Compton, who was moved from his natural center position to replace Roberts prior to last week.
Aside from a 66-yard strike to WR Germaine Crowell, Washington's secondary did an excellent job of taking away the deep ball and forcing Frerotte to be accurate underneath. Initially, the Lions need to push the ball down the field and take advantage of their playmakers on the perimeter (Crowell and Johnnie Morton) to be successful.
Once the down-field passing game has softened up coverage, Frerotte must find former Pro Bowler Herman Moore working the shallow crossing routes against Washington's nickel package. Moore caught four passes for just 47 yards in the first meeting but he should be in much better condition to sustain crisp routes this time around. As he has done all season, defensive coordinator Mike Nolan will deploy plenty of zone coverage, which plays right into Moore's strength -- few players in the league that can find soft spots and seams in zones like Moore.
Despite their non-existent ground game, the Lions will have to at least attempt to run the ball in order to set up the play-action passing game. Offensive coordinator Sylvester Croom will reassume the play-calling duties on Saturday after being hospitalized on the eve of last week's game against the Vikings and he must incorporate more runs (15) than the Lions attempted in Week 13.
Washington's much-maligned run defense had one of its finest efforts of the season against Detroit, holding them to a paltry 2.1 yards per carry. The unproductive return of RB Ron Rivers last week proves that the Lions' ground woes run deeper than the man carrying the ball. Detroit's shuffled offensive line must play more physical than they have the past two weeks; it's apparent that this unit has been too assignment-conscious. Look for the Redskins to use numerous fronts and run blitzes with their linebackers to further complicate things for this group.
Washington offense vs. Detroit defense
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REDKSINS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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9
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Pass
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7
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Tot. Yds.
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2
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Scoring
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2
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Int's allowed
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14
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Sacks allowed
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31
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LIONS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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9
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vs. Pass
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29
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Total yds. allowed
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21
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# of Ints.
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16
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# of Sacks
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50
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Turnover differential
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+10
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Washington ran the ball very effectively against the Lions in Week 13 but had to abandon the ground game in the second half after falling behind 20-10 at halftime. RB Stephen Davis, the NFC's leading rusher despite sitting out the past two games with an ankle injury, still isn't back to full strength and will likely split carries with backups Skip Hicks and Brian Mitchell. The latter offered a nice change of pace against the Lions with 60 yards on 10 carries and FB Larry Centers was used on short dump-offs (7 rec., 47 yds.) as a variation of the running game.
Detroit was gashed last Sunday by the Vikings for 137 yards on the ground but they will receive a huge boost this week by the return of Pro Bowl DT Luther Ellis. The Lions had one of the stingiest run defenses in the league all season but they appeared worn down late in the year, especially in their final two games against Denver and Minnesota.
The key to QB Brad Johnson's passing success will be protection. Washington's offensive line was affected by the Silverdome crowd in their previous matchup, giving up five sacks and accounting for a good proportion of the team's 14 penalties.
Detroit has gotten tremendous pressure off the edge all season from DEs Robert Porcher and Tracy Scroggins, although the key this Saturday will be the push they get up the middle against Washington's interior line. Against a pocket passer like Johnson, the Lions can't afford to let him have clear passing lanes and step into his throws.
If Johnson is pressured, he will have the benefit of using athletic TE Stephen Alexander in the short passing game to discourage the Lions from using their linebackers on the blitz. Alexander missed the Week 13 matchup and Washington completed just one pass to their tight ends. Working the hashes with the tight end will open up the outside for big-play receivers Albert Connell and Michael Westbrook, who scorched Detroit for 108 yards on just five catches. With Connell ailing, the pressure will be on Westbrook to exploit matchups on the perimeter.
Because they have struggled so badly in man coverage, defensive coordinator Larry Peccatiello will play extensive two-deep zone coverage to prevent the long ball. With deep help behind them, DCs Bryant Westbrook and Robert Bailey can't be afraid to press at the line of scrimmage. If they play off the receivers and provide a generous cushion, Washington will abuse them on short hitch routes, especially in third-down situations.
The Redskins converted 8-of-17 third down attempts earlier in the year against Detroit.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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WAS
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DET
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Punt return avg.
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23
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12
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Kickoff return avg.
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17
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21
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Opp. punt return avg.
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21
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16
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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25
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11
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Time of possession
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19
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24
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As was the case in the initial meeting between these conference rivals, special teams will play a decisive role in the outcome on Saturday. Detroit RS Desmond Howard, who broke the game open with a 68-yard punt return in the last meeting, was knocked unconscious last week against Minnesota and his availability for Saturday's rematch is doubtful. If he can't go, rookie Ty Talton will handle kickoffs and fourth receiver Brian Stablein will assume the punt return chores. Talton showed a good burst on one return last week in relief of Howard and Stablein will at least be reliable when fielding the ball. Washington KOR James Thrash matched Howard's heroics with a 95-yard kickoff return but veteran Brian Mitchell will be deep this week. Mitchell visibly slowed this season, averaging just 20.8 per return with a long of 45 yards. He didn't fare much better on punts, finishing the season with a 8.2 average. Detroit has a clear advantage in the kicking game, as Pro Bowl PK Jason Hansen has a bigger leg and better accuracy than counterpart Brett Conway. After posting a couple of outstanding seasons, Redskin P Matt Turk's gross average dipped below 42 yards per attempt (41.1) for the first time in his career. John Jett has quietly enjoyed a solid season, finishing the season ranked twelfth with a 42.2 average and 27 kicks inside the 20.
Key matchups
Washington TE Stephen Alexander vs. Detroit OLB Allen Aldridge
Washington's big-play tight end didn't play in the first meeting and the Redskins missed his presence down the middle of the field. If Alexander can demand attention from the safeties, it will open up the deep sideline routes for the wide receivers. Aldridge was injured last week and his status is uncertain for Saturday. Rookie OLB Chris Claiborne will switch to the strong side if he can't go.
Detroit WRs Crowell & Morton vs. Washington DCs Bailey & Green
The Lions' prolific duo combined for 18 catches and 248 yards last Sunday against the Vikings and they'll need another huge effort against the Redskins. Washington will play predominantly zone coverage, which will put an emphasis on the corners to close quickly on the ball and eliminate yards after the catch.
Detroit OC Eric Beverley vs. Washington DTs Stubblefield & Wilkinson
The move of starting center Mike Compton to left tackle didn't produce the results Detroit head coach Bobby Ross would have hoped for against Minnesota, as the Lions' offensive line allowed seven sacks. Washington's inside tandem should be able to get penetration against the run and collapse the pocket when Detroit reverts to its passing game.
Washington will win if...
The offensive line comes out with a mean streak. The difference in the first meeting between these teams was the dominant play of Detroit's front four. The Lions expect Pro Bowl DT Luther Ellis to return this week after sitting out in last week's loss to Minnesota. Washington's offensive line must play more aggressively in this rematch if they don't want to get physically beaten for the second time in six weeks.
They find a rhythm on offense early. A huge key in this game will be Washington's ability to run the ball with banged up RB Stephen Davis. If the Lions take away the ground game, it will force QB Brad Johnson to be accurate in the short and intermediate passing games. Detroit must get to Johnson early and not allow him to develop a comfort zone in the pocket.
The secondary prevents the big play. Detroit WR Crowell got behind the secondary on a couple of occasions when the teams met in the Silverdome and the Lions now have WR Herman Moore back into the flow the offense. Look for Washington to play a lot of two- and three-deep zone coverage in order to force QB Gus Frerotte to nickel and dime them underneath.
Detroit will win if...
They give QB Frerotte time to throw. Injuries have hit Detroit's offensive line extremely hard, which means the running backs must do a solid job picking up the blitz. Although the Redskins don't have a feared pass rush, look for the Lions to go with max-protection much of the afternoon. If Washington can get to Frerotte, it will take Pro Bowl TE David Sloan out of the passing game.
They play strong defense up the middle. The Lions need to dominate physically up the middle with Pro Bowlers Ellis, MLB Stephen Boyd and hard-hitting SS Ron Rice. Washington needs to stick to the game plan that has worked for them all season. An inside power running game will take the starch out of Detroit's defense.
Their receiver corps makes things happen after the catch. Without any semblance of a running game, the Lions need their play-makers (Morton, Moore, and Crowell) to carry them offensively. Because Frerotte won't have time to let many deep plays develop, Detroit's receivers will catch the majority of their passes underneath. If Washington doesn't break down on the ball and tackle well, it will be another long day for defensive coordinator Mike Nolan.
The War Room edge
Much has been made of Detroit's futility in Washington but it's hard to ignore an 0-19 all-time record. The Lions stumble into this one losers of their last four games but they did handle the Redskins in what proved to be their last complete game of the season. Washington should be able throw at will on Detroit's beleaguered secondary if the offensive line does a better job in pass protection. Norv Turner's club will have the home crowd behind them, which should eliminate some of the costly penalties that killed them in their previous meeting at the Silverdome. Washington's balance on offense will prove to be the difference in this one. It's seems almost impossible for the Lions to pull out a win with their anemic running game.
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