| Wednesday, January 26
By Mike Monroe
Special to ESPN.com |
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|  | | Kobe's team wins the West, Raef LaFrentz' team won't make the playoffs, so writes Mike Monroe. |
In case you hadn't noticed, it is Super Bowl Week, and you know what that
means, don't you?
The NBA regular season has reached its midpoint.
Check out the standings. Most teams have played 39, 40 or 41 games. In an
82-game season, that means we are halfway through the schedule, or will be in a
day or two. (See, I knew there was a reason I took all those advanced math
courses in college.)
So it's time for the ESPN.com NBA Western Conference mid-season analysis of
the good, the bad and the ugly, with predictions for the second half.
We'll take it team by team, starting at the top and finishing at the bottom of
the conference standings, as of Tuesday morning.
1. Lakers. OK, so they have had a little bobble of late. We think that is
because Phil Jackson told his troops he doesn't want to have to go to Oakland
for NBA All-Star 2000, and he will be kinder and gentler in the second half of
the season if they will just lose often enough that Mike Dunleavy has to coach
the West.
Seriously, the Lakers have picked up Jackson's triangle offense faster than
anyone believed possible, Shaquille O'Neal is the leading contender for MVP and
Kobe Bryant is trying, on occasion, to play within Jackson's structure.
Second-half prediction: Best record in entire league, No. 1 playoff seed.
2. Portland Trail Blazers. Remember how we were all prepared to just hand them
the conference title before the season began? Well, they really have done
nothing to make us look stupid, with the second-best record in the entire
league and just a game-and-a-half behind the Lakers. And they have done it, by
and large, without Brian Grant, who I expect to have a monster March and April.
They also have learned who their go-to guy is: Rasheed Wallace has only to
learn to focus his intensity more closely on his play and less on the referees
to become a legitimate MVP candidate.
Prediction: Second-best record in conference, No. 3 seed.
3. Utah Jazz. I admit it. After watching them get blown out by the Kings in
November I thought the end of the line finally had arrived for their
championship chances. But Karl Malone remains a dominant player, John Stockton
remains capable of controlling games from the point and additions Olden
Polynice, Armen Gilliam and Quincy Lewis are working nicely into Jerry Sloan's
system.
Prediction: Third, No. 2 seed.
4. Sacramento Kings. Chris Webber is putting up MVP-like numbers and is even
making his free throws. Jason Williams has read too many of his press
clippings. Some day he may be the next Pistol Pete. For now he needs to try to
be the next John Stockton and feed Webber. The Kings are good, but they are not
quite the next big thing in the West.
Prediction: Sixth, No. 6 seed.
5. San Antonio Spurs. Avery Johnson says the Spurs are a team built for the
playoffs, not the regular season. Spurs fans had better hope he is right,
because the defending NBA champs have disappointed in the first half. Tim
Duncan is being asked to carry too much of the load, and David Robinson seems
incapable of unburdening his low-post running mate. And yes, they miss Sean
Elliott's leadership, defense and perimeter shooting.
Prediction: Fourth, No. 4 seed.
6. Seattle SuperSonics. The West's version of a roller coaster, complete with
the screaming. When they are all on the same page, they are as good as any team
in basketball. When they forget that Gary Payton is still "the man," they are
ordinary. Their locker room is notoriously factionalized, which will make them
a more dangerous playoff team than a regular-season power.
Prediction: Fifth, No. 5 seed.
7. Phoenix Suns. We wonder why Danny Ainge signed on to be a TV analyst if he
wanted to spend so much time with his kids. His business, not ours. The Suns
are tougher-minded under Scott Skiles, but they need all their players healthy
to make a serious run at home court in the first round, especially Anfernee
Hardaway.
Prediction: Eighth, No. 8 seed.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves. For a team that lost eight games in a row, they are
in pretty good shape. Kevin Garnett has assumed more of a leadership role,
though we would like to see a lot more of him in the post than out on the
perimeter, where he seems to be more often this season. With a decent center,
they would be a championship contender.
Prediction: Seventh, No,. 7 seed.
9. Denver Nuggets. For a time they were making noises about making the
playoffs. That was before they lost six in a row and dropped four games behind
the T-Wolves for the final playoff berth. One thing is for certain: They no
longer are one of the NBA's bad jokes, and that much is progress.
Prediction: Tenth.
10. Houston Rockets. No Hakeem, no Chuckster ... no shot. But the Rockets are
learning to let Steve Francis, who is fast becoming the leading contender for
Rookie of the Year, lead them. Hakeem is back, but struggling to regain form.
Prediction: Ninth. they'll make a run at Phoenix for the final playoff spot,
but they fell too far behind when beset by all those injuries.
11. Dallas Mavericks. They had the toughest schedule of any NBA team in the
first half, without a doubt, so their 14-26 record is not as bad as it seems.
(They have a better plus-minus ratio of road wins to home losses than both
Houston and Denver, for example). Still, they have yet to figure out how to
play well enough in crunch time to win close games. Now they have a new owner,
Mark Cuban, who will make some changes, to be sure. But not this season.
Prediction: 11th.
12. Vancouver Grizzlies and L.A. Clippers (both 10-30). Let's take the Grizzlies first, since somebody apparently wants to. A Chicago
businessman, Michael Heisley, now says he will buy them and keep them in
Vancouver, which will satisfy David Stern, but not some of the players, who
would like to see the sun on occasion. Firing Brian Hill and replacing him with
Lionel Hollins worked, but only for a while. Now the Grizz are mired in another
long losing streak. Some things never change.
Prediction: 12th.
The Clippers are the Clippers, which Lamar Odom already has discovered. Odom
is the most talented member of the rookie class, but may not be Rookie of the
Year because the Clips are so bad. Also, he has begun to grouse a bit about
management. The Staples Center has made no difference, either. Bottom line: As
long as Donald Sterling owns the team, it will be terrible.
Prediction: 13th.
14. Golden State Warriors. P.J. finally is gone, which has made precisely zero
difference. Garry St. Jean has to wonder why he went back to the bench. Oh,
well, they get to host NBA All-Star 2000 in a few weeks.
Prediction: 14th.
Mike Monroe, who covers the NBA for the Denver Post, writes a Western Conference column for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him at monroe128@go.com |  |
NBA West: Best guard in game
