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Tuesday, February 8
Lowe, Timlin must close the door

By Sean McAdam
Special to ESPN.com

The countdown is on for pitchers and catchers to report to Florida and Arizona. Those scintillating intra-squad games and baserunning drills aren't far behind.

Before we fling ourselves into the first spring training of the millennium, however, a look at 10 American League players who appear to be sitting on the Hot Stove Hot Seat -- the key players for the 2000 season.

1. Raul Mondesi, Blue Jays. Toronto traded its best player in Shawn Green to obtain Mondesi, who is coming off two consecutive underachieving seasons with the Dodgers. Mondesi needs to return to the form he showed in 1997 when he hit .310 and was a 30-30 man for Los Angeles.

Toronto could be the perfect place for Mondesi to jump-start his career, since it has always been a friendly place for other Dominican stars (George Bell, Tony Fernandez, Carlos Delgado). If he falters, Mondesi could become an easy target for disgruntled Blue Jays fans, who've endured a long playoff drought since the back-to-back World Series wins of 1992-93.

2. Derek Lowe, Red Sox. Lowe was one of the most effective and durable relievers in the league last season, recording a 2.63 ERA in 109.1 innings, 15 saves and 22 holds in 74 games, the latter a figure topped by just three AL pitchers.

With Tom Gordon (elbow tendon transplant surgery) gone for the year, Lowe moves into the role of closer for the Red Sox. Can Lowe handle the role on a full-time basis?

Some with the Red Sox believe that Lowe's future lies as a starter, but the Sox don't have the luxury of moving him into the rotation now, since their only other closer candidate is Rod Beck, something of a question mark himself.

Lowe doesn't have to go an entire season with just one blown save, as Gordon did in 1998. But he had better convert the vast majority of his opportunities if the Sox are to return to the postseason for a third straight year.

3. Mike Timlin, Orioles. The Orioles' closer was quite effective over the second half of last season, but by then, the damage had been done -- the O's were far out of the race, thanks in part to a bullpen that had 25 blown saves, the second-worst total in the league behind Kansas City.

Baltimore has a strong rotation led by Mike Mussina, but their aging position players and questionable defense makes them suspect. What leads the O's get in the late innings, they'll need to preserve and Timlin needs to show that he was worth the four-year investment Baltimore made in him before last season.

Newcomers Chuck McElroy and Mike Trombley provide depth in the late innings, but the ninth will be Timlin's responsibility.

4. Lance Johnson, Indians. Johnson wasn't the biggest free agent addition to the Cleveland Indians -- that would be Chuck Finley -- and he doesn't even have a major league contract yet. But with leadoff man/center fielder Kenny Lofton sidelined until the All-Star break after undergoing shoulder surgery, the Indians are counting on Johnson.

No one's expecting that Johnson is going to be the on-base and offensive threat that Lofton has been, but he needs to do better than draw 37 walks (his 1999 total) and his on-base percentage has to be higher than last season's .337.

Cleveland's batting order is the envy of just about every other team in the league, but if Johnson misfires at the top, he could set in a motion an offensive slowdown.

5. Ben Grieve, Athletics. For the first few months of last season, Grieve was locked in a prototypical sophomore jinx slump -- fighting himself, changing his stance, swinging at bad pitches.

He got straightened out in midseason, finished strong and compiled decent numbers (.265, 28 homers, 86 RBI) by the end of the year, but it wasn't the breakout season that many expected of him after he won the Rookie of the Year Award in 1998.

Oakland's chief competition in the AL West have stockpiled lefties (Texas added Kenny Rogers, Darren Oliver and Justin Thompson while Seattle returns Jamie Moyer and John Halama), so Grieve will find a tougher going in intra-division games. For the A's to get off to a strong start, they'll need a better first-half from Grieve.

6. Luis Alicea, Rangers. The Rangers took a gamble when they allowed free agent Mark McLemore to walk, entrusting second base to Alicea, who hasn't played more than than 101 games since 1997 and last year hit a paltry .201, his lowest average since 1991.

Alicea isn't an offensive dynamo. He has 36 lifetime homers and only once has stolen more than 13 bases in a season. But he can be dependable, the kind of player whose contributions aren't always evident with a quick glance of the box score. He'll need to be that for the Rangers -- who are breaking in rookie Mike Lamb at third -- to have a stable infield.

7. Darin Erstad, Angels. Anaheim ranked last or next-to-last in nearly every conceivable offensive category last year -- hits, average, runs and on-base percentage -- and no player was more disappointing in his output than Erstad, who hit .253 (after hitting .296 and .299 the previous two years).

Only a year ago, Erstad seemed poised to become an offensive dynamo, capable of scoring runs, hitting for power and generally acting as a catalyst. But he slumped for much of the season and finished with the mediocre totals of 13 home runs and 56 RBI.

The Angels will probably deal another outfielder (Garret Anderson or Jim Edmonds) for pitching help, making it even more imperative upon Erstad to be produce bigger numbers.

8. Jorge Posada, Yankees. The Yankee catcher took a step backward last season, suffering drops in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage at a time when the Yanks thought he was about to establish himself as one of the game's top receivers.

The presence of veteran Joe Girardi apparently adversely affected Posada, who felt pressure to produce or risk losing his No. 1 status. With Girardi gone, the pressure is gone, but so too is the safety net.

The Yanks are a club with few holes, but they're not so strong that they can do without production from behind the plate. At 28 and with some aging veterans around him in the lineup, Posada's time is now.

9. Alex Rodriguez, Mariners. Let's start with the supposition that Rodriguez' more famous teammate, Ken Griffey Jr., will be playing elsewhere by Opening Day. That makes the Mariners unmistakably A-Rod's team for the first time.

How will he handle that responsibility? How will he be affected by the departure of Junior? Will there be enough protection in the lineup for him to continue to produce?

Then, there are the question about the super shortstop's own future. A free agent at the end of this season like Griffey, Rodriguez is bound to hear that he's headed for the Braves or Mets, particularly if the Mariners get off to a slow start.

10. Greg Vaughn, Devil Rays. Vaughn was the Devil Rays' biggest offseason investment at $34 million over four years and he'll be expected to produce 45-50 homers, the way he has the past two seasons.

Problem is, Vaughn can be strikingly inconsistent, hitting just .216 in 1997 and .245 last year. The Rays look like a softball team, with a lot of rather one-dimensional sluggers (Canseco, Castilla, McGriff) and will probably be prone to slumps.

Then there's the matter of chemistry. Vaughn earned the reputation for being a demanding sort in Cincinnati. It will be interesting to see how he fits into this veteran clubhouse.

Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal-Bulletin covers the American League for ESPN.com.


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