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Friday, May 12
Ankiel, Gagne look tough


Examine the 53-year history of National League Rookie of the Year winners and you'll find a fascinating study.

At the top of the list is Jackie Robinson, the first player to win the award and the quintessential baseball pioneer. Since then, there have been other Hall of Famers: Willie Mays, Frank Robinson, Tom Seaver and Johnny Bench. There also have been a few drug addicts -- Steve Howe, Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden -- and at least one gambling addict, Pete Rose.

Some top rookies fade fast. Jerome Walton, who won the award with the Cubs in 1989, is a classic example. Others soar. Mike Piazza, the 1993 winner, fits that mold.

Another young player will join the list this season and it's always fun to speculate who will be the league's best rookie. Here's a look at the preseason top 10:

Rick Ankiel. LHP, Cardinals
This 20-year-old kid has the potential to dominate the league in much the same way Kerry Wood did with the Cubs two seasons ago. In 299 career minor-league innings, Ankiel had 416 strikeouts and held hitters to a .193 batting average.

The Cardinals allowed Ankiel to get his feet wet last September and he didn't drown, compiling a 3.27 ERA in nine games, including five starts. You can't find anybody who doesn't think this kid is the real deal and if he needs to be grounded, he can just look at teammate J.D. Drew to realize that there are no guarantees at the big-league level.

1999 stats: 13-4 with a 2.53 ERA and 233 strikeouts at three different levels.

Eric Gagne, RHP, Dodgers
The Dodgers have gone three seasons in a row without producing a Rookie of the Year, but this Quebec-born power/curveball pitcher has a chance to end the Southern California drought.

Eric Gagne
Eric Gagne had offseason laser eye surgery and will ditch the goggles this year.

Gagne, 24, solidified a spot in the Dodgers' rotation last season when he made the jump from Double-A San Antonio and went 1-1 with a 2.10 ERA in five September starts. By the end of the year, he could be the No. 3 starter behind Kevin Brown and Chan Ho Park.

1999 stats: Combined 13-5 with a 2.55 ERA for San Antonio and Dodgers. Struck out 215 hitters and allowed just 140 hits in 197 2/3 innings.

Chad Hermansen, CF-RF, Pirates
He's only 22 years old, but the Pirates feel their 1995 first-round pick is ready to make the big-league plunge. He put up numbers to support that theory last season at Triple-A Nashville, but he must cut down on his strikeouts.

Hitting down in the order, his success may depend upon what sort of protection he receives from fellow rookie Aramis Ramirez.

1999 stats: Combined .266 with 33 homers and 98 RBI for Nashville and Pirates. Walked just 42 times and struck out 138 times.

Pat Burrell, LF, Phillies
This kid has the makings of the game's next great power hitter, but he also will hit for a high average because he can spray the ball to all fields. The only thing he hasn't been able to do is stay in one position. He was a third baseman at the University of Miami, but the Phillies moved him to first base after making him the No. 1 overall pick in 1998.

Now, he's a left fielder and he's had little trouble making the transition.

"He's a great athlete," Phillies manager Terry Francona said. "This kid is going to be something special."

Burrell, 23, is the best hitting prospect in the league, but he will start the season at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and there's no telling how long he'll remain there.

1999 stats: Hit .330 with 30 doubles, 32 home runs and 102 RBI at Double-A Reading and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Those numbers include a .522 average with three homers and eight RBI during Scranton's playoff series against Charlotte.

A.J. Burnett, RHP, Marlins
This is a strange kid who had a strange 1999 season. The nipple-ring wearing right-hander who names his bats after Marilyn Manson songs went 6-12 with a 5.52 ERA at Double-A Portland last season. On a lot of teams, that'll get you a demotion to Class A. But these are the Marlins, so Burnett bypassed Triple-A and went straight to Miami, where -- surprise, surprise -- he compiled a 4-2 record with a 3.48 ERA in seven September starts.

Burnett, 23, maintained his rookie status, but could be in some trouble this spring if he doesn't improve his control. Despite his impressive big-league numbers, he walked 25 batters in 41 1/3 innings.

1999 stats: Combined 10-14, 5.00 ERA with Double-A Portland and Marlins. Walked 96 hitters in 162 innings.

Kevin Barker, 1B, Brewers
Barker, 24, is a big -- 6-3, 205 pounds -- switch-hitter with power. He earned a late-season promotion last year after batting .278 with 27 doubles, 23 homers and 87 RBI at Triple-A Louisville.

Installed as the starting first baseman , Barker acquitted himself quite well, hitting .282 with three homers and 23 RBI. In the process, he maintained his rookie status by coming up 13 at-bats shy of the 130 needed to qualify.

1999 stats: Hit combined .279 with 30 doubles, 26 homers and 110 RBI for Louisville and Brewers.

Corey Patterson, CF, Cubs
The Cubs think they have a chance to win -- they don't -- so they will open the season with veteran Damon Buford in center field. As soon as it all starts to fall apart, Patterson could get his big-league opportunity, although it's just as possible he'll be eligible for Rookie of the Year status next season.

There's every reason to believe this 20-year-old with the sweet left-handed swing is a future star. He led the Midwest League with a .592 slugging percentage for the Class A Lansing Lugnuts last season. He also had 17 triples, 35 doubles and 20 home runs among his 72 extra-base hits.

1999 stats: Hit .320 with 79 RBI and 33 stolen bases at Lansing.

Peter Bergeron, CF, Expos
This 22-year-old outfielder has a chance to be a decent leadoff hitter, but is being pushed for the job as opening-day center fielder by fellow rookie Milton Bradley. Bergeron proved last season that he could hit for average and steal bases. At this point, he is more polished than Bradley, but Bradley has superior power and a better throwing arm.

1999 stats: Hit combined .312 for Double-A Harrisburg, Triple-A Ottawa and the Expos. Stole 23 bases.

Brad Penny, RHP, Marlins
He is big -- 6-4, 200 pounds -- and he throws hard, consistently reaching the mid-90s. Given that the Marlins will be on the fast track to nowhere again this season, Penny should get a chance to excel in a low-pressure situation.

If he develops into the power pitcher everybody thinks he will be, the screaming teenage girls in Miami may forget about Matt Mantei.

1999 stats: Combined 3-7 with a 4.56 ERA for El Paso and Portland; 135 K's in 122.1 innings

Calvin Murray, CF, Giants
When the Giants made him their first-round pick in 1992, Murray probably figured he'd be eligible for free agency right about now. Instead, he is still trying to establish himself as a big-league player.

He at least earned a longer look last season by putting up big numbers at Triple-A Fresno and was named Pacific Coast League MVP. Usually to qualify for Rookie of the Year in your late 20s you have to come from either Cuba or Japan. Murray is from that other foreign country: Texas.

1999 stats: Hit combined .332 with 33 doubles, seven triples, 23 home runs and 43 stolen bases for Fresno and Giants.

Bob Brookover, who covers the Phillies for the Delaware County (Pa.) Times, writes on the National League for ESPN.com.

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