| | | Last weekend might have been the easiest NFL gambling weekend in recent memory. Nine of the 14 home teams covered, nine of the 14 favorites covered and the three most obvious games on the board -- San Diego over Dallas, Philly over Seattle and Green Bay over Washington -- all covered easily. Bailey the dog went 4-0 and celebrated by feasting on Beggin' Strips. Even my dad went 8-7 last week and he spends his weekends eating tapioca and watching old John Wayne movies.
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Bill vs. Bailey |
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Seems like everybody thinks they can handicap NFL games, so Page 2 has decided to turn to its two experts in the field of prognostication. Predicting games isn't an exact science, so each week we'll have Page 2 columnist Bill Simmons, the Sports Guy, go head-to-head with Bailey the Sports Dog.
Simmons' credentials you probably know: He's a die-hard Boston sports nut who represents the common fan.
Bailey is a Samoyed husky-black Labrador cross with a nose for pigskin. He's lived in Colorado, Chicago and Seattle while loyally following college and pro football for the past 14 years.
Each week, Simmons and Bailey will select their four best choices against the spread. We'll also keep a running score throughout the season.
Both experts are hesitant to reveal their secrets, but here's what we can tell you about their methods: Simmons will use his extensive football knowledge, the Internet and key newspapers to come up with his can't-miss picks. Bailey will choose between two dog treats representing teams in each matchup.
Of course, these are only predictions and not recommendations for wagering. Simmons and Bailey are just doing this for pride. OK, maybe a little kibble but that's all. |
As for me, I rebounded in this space with an impressive 4-0 record and laid the smack down on various bookies in the Boston area. By Monday night, as the Packers were rolling over the Redskins, I was calling my friends and giving them the old Stu Feiner (from the now-defunct "Sports Advisors" show, maybe the unintentionally funniest TV show of all-time): "It seems like I win every week... and I do!"
Of course, the good times never last long for gamblers in the NFL. Just when you think you're in a groove... boom! Things gets turned upside down. In prison parlance, we call this Sistas Week after the Sistas in "Shawshank Redemption." Remember how Andy Dufresne was cruising along, feeling good, hanging out with Red, getting used to the whole prison thing ... then boom! The Sistas introduced themselves to him.
Not good times. Bad times.
For NFL gamblers, your goal during Sistas Week isn't to avoid them ... after all, you can't fend off the Sistas, especially when they travel in packs. You have to prepare for Sistas Week, mentally and physically. You have to see them coming before "it" happens.
I can't expect you to develop that kind of radar with the NFL slate. That's why I'm here. And I'm telling you, Week 3 is Sistas Week. Six home underdogs, six 0-2 teams that need a win ... and there isn't an easy game on the board. For instance ...
How do you approach Tampa-Minnesota? Which Vikings team shows up there? How do you pick sides in a Chiefs-Redskins battle (possibly the two worst teams in the league)? How do you tackle the San Diego-Cincinnati game when the Bolts shouldn't be favored by 6½ over anybody yet, but on the flip side, you never want to take Jon Kitna on the road under any circumstances? Who's worse, Pittsburgh or Buffalo? Who's better, the Giants or Saints? Was Arizona that bad in its first game, or did Denver simply make them look that bad? Should we write Seattle off after two weeks? Can they make a line high enough for Philly-Dallas? Who's more unpredictable, the Jets or Niners?
You see, there aren't any answers to those questions ... that's why they call it gambling. So proceed with caution. One rule of thumb during Sistas Week: load up on as many underdogs as possible, because the underdogs always seem to band together for Sistas Week. And avoid taking too many favorites on the road because that's how bookies make their money. And tread lightly, if you get my drift. You don't want to end up like Boggs, eating your food through a straw.
One more thing: it kills me not to be able to pick this Chargers-Bengals tilt. Really, it does. As far as I'm concerned, it's the Game of the Year. At 7:30 on Sunday night, either the Bengals or Chargers will be 3-0. Can you believe that? Just for the record, I'm taking the Chargers even if Corey Dillon's capable of 150-175 yards ... I just can't take Kitna on the road in good conscience. I couldn't live with myself if the Chargers covered because Kitna threw four interceptions -- I'd almost rather lose with the Chargers even when I don't think they can cover that many points.
Still ... I mean...
Kitna! Flutie! The unbeaten Bengals battle the unbeaten Chargers, Sunday on... CBS!
|  | | Bill Simmons scouts a Pats game. |
On an unrelated note, I spent Thursday night sifting through about 500 e-mails that people sent in after Thursday's "mailbag" column (sorry I couldn't respond to everybody ... but you understand). Anyway, three e-mails warrant mentioning:
A number of readers wrote in expressing their concern over the new Chunky Soup commercial. Reader Mikey P. from Boston summed it up best:
"Hey BSG, despite Duce Staley becoming the next Fred Taylor I was liking the looks of the Eagles this season. However, now I'm gonna be much more cautious in picking them after what I saw last week. It was Donovan McNabb in a Campell's Chunky Soup commercial. Two years ago, Terrell Davis did this after a spectacular year and was injured that season (and hasn't been the same since). Last year I saw Kurt Warner in a Campell's Chunky Soup comercial and he went down, and isn't looking as sharp this year. Is McNabb next? If he does go down, I think this could start to become the SI jinx of the 21st century."
(Hmmmmmmm ...)
A number of readers also wrote in (swear to God) volunteering a new theory to complement the Ewing Theory: "The Mullet Theory." It was totally bizarre that so many different people thought this one up on their own -- a little eerie, even. Anyway, Matt G. from San Diego sums it up best:
"Seeing Doug Flutie kick some serious ass the past few weeks, I have a new theory to go along with your "Ewing Theory." I call it the "Mullet Theory." Guys like Jaromir Jagr and Flutie have had increased success since they lost the flowing mullet look. Think I have something here?"
(Definitely worth exploring ... let's get Bob Ley and the "Outside the Lines" staff on this.)
Finally, reader D. Lanza from Boston sent in the following quote from Miami tight end Jed Weaver about Jay Fiedler after last week's Dolphins win -- "We've got a lot of guys on this team like Jay. Guys who aren't always pretty, but they get it done. At the end of the day, what do you want? A beautiful loss or an ugly win? I guess if you're talking about a woman, I want a pretty woman. But I also want one who's going to get it done."
Then D. Lanza added this note at the end: "I guess that's what we all want, Sports Guy. Women who 'get it done.' "
(For you aspiring high school seniors out there, feel free to use either of those quotes -- if not both -- in your high school yearbook this season.)
One last note, to Marty Schottenheimer for waiving Jeff George: BOOOOOOOO! BOOOOOOOOO! BOOOOOOOOOOOO! Jeff George was a gambling godsend and the gift of comedy that kept on giving! What about us, Marty? What about the fans? I'm outraged.
On to the picks ...
Bill Simmons' Week 3 NFL predictions
Season record: 5-3; last week: 4-0
Carolina at Green Bay
I love that everyone has the Pack penciled in for a Super Bowl appearance when their 2-0 record came at the expense of the Redskins and Lions ... I love how Las Vegas always overvalues teams that looked good on the previous Monday night ... I love going against a team that played host to a Monday night game at home and now has to play on the road six days later ... and if that's not enough, the 3½-point underdog Panthers aren't half-bad.
(By the way, when did Ahman Green become "The Next Bo Jackson"? I never got the memo.)
-- The pick: Panthers 24, Packers 23
Baltimore at Denver
The Broncos giving 4½ at home? Doesn't seem high enough -- Mike Shanahan wants revenge, dammit! (I love revenge games.) Baltimore's headed for 5-11 ... just trust me ... some day we'll look back at the Ravens' Super Bowl season in a "Rockets-Knicks 1994 Finals/let's pretend it never happened" kinda way ... I think Baltimore coach Brian Billick needs to break out the Rick Pitino motivational book and the hammock again.
-- The pick: Broncos 30, Ravens 14
Cleveland at Jacksonville
The Jags laying nine points at home without Fred Taylor and his groin? Ludicrous.
-- The pick: Jaguars 16, Browns 13 (Browns cover)
Indianapolis at New England
When Tom Brady is filming Met-RX commercials four weeks from now, will you finally believe that the Ewing Theory is the strongest force in all sports? The Legend of Brady begins this week -- the 11½-point underdog Pats (ludicrous spread) will pull off the upset at home. And no, I'm not drunk again.
-- The pick: Patriots 20, Colts 17
Bailey's Week 3 NFL predictions
|  | | Bailey |
Season record: 7-1; last week: 4-0
Geez, Bill, reading about Sistas Week sure makes me glad I was fixed. Anyway, here are my picks.
Green Bay at Carolina
Even when they're underdogs, cats are still cats. The Panthers seem too inconsistent to take them plus 3½ points, and the Pack look too strong.
-- The pick: Packers 24, Panthers 17
Cincinnati at San Diego
What did I say about underdog cats? The Bengals were tempting, but my nose tells me to expect another fabulous Flutie effort, even giving up 6½ points.
-- The pick: Chargers 30, Bengals 22
Baltimore at Denver
I can smell a little fear in the Broncos as the Super Bowl champions come in like a pack of hungry wolves after last week's embarrassing loss to Cincy. Baltimore is easy pickins at plus 4½ points.
-- The pick: Broncos 23, Ravens 20 (Ravens cover)
San Francisco at New York Jets
Throw me a freakin' bone here. Tough call, but I have to go with the home team minus 3½ points on Monday night.
-- Prediction: Jets 33, 49ers 24
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