It may not be the plague it's so often hyped as, but the notorious "sophomore jinx" is, at the very least, a cause for front office fretting.

	Ilya Kovalchuk, left, and Dany Heatley combined for 54 goals and 63 assists last season.

Something that began in baseball, with the occasional cases of rookie phenoms gone asunder by their second years -- (where did you ever go, Mark Fidrych?) -- has become, in the true fashion of sports, an overused, overhyped media creation complete with a catch name.

But now, the malady has spread to every sport. In the NHL, it isn't so difficult to envision a rookie of the year like Scott Gomez or Sergei Samsonov suddenly struggling in the next couple of years before regaining his form … or not.

It's also not uncommon for any methodical manager or confidently condescending coach in the NHL to publicly downplay a jinx query as just another dumb reach, then go back to the office wondering how to prevent his developing star from falling into that same dumb-question trap.

So it should be interesting to see how that is handled this year in Atlanta, where the presence -- or the prevention -- of the mythological second-year sports plague should be the story of the Thrashers' season.

The fortunes of a team finally under pressure to perform in the standings depend primarily on the advancement of youthful talents Dany Heatley and Ilya Kovalchuk, the two best rookies in the league last season. Now that they're surrounded with a little support group that includes the suddenly viable Patrik Stefan and veteran acquisitions Vyacheslav Kozlov and Shawn McEachern, Atlanta has dreams of competing for a playoff spot instead of merely breaking out of the cellar.

To achieve either goal, reigning Calder Trophy prince Heatley and runner-up of honor Kovalchuk are going to have to continue their promising steps toward stardom. If they do so, it won't be so easy this season for teams to discount their trips through Atlanta.

But if that sophomore jinx makes a visit of its own to Thrashertown ... maybe it's best to act on it rather than talk about it.

	“	He's got to concentrate on one thing, and that's playing well. To burden him with the captaincy right now is not the best thing we could do. ”
		— Curt Fraser, Atlanta Thrashers coach, on Dany Heatley

To help guard against jinx stress syndrome, Atlanta coach Curt Fraser has already pre-empted speculation that the available captaincy role could be filled by Heatley, whose persona reflects leadership.

But why put pressure on a guy already dealing with the second-year itch?

"He's got to concentrate on one thing, and that's playing well," Fraser said of Heatley. "To burden him with the captaincy right now is not the best thing we could do. Some day he'll be a great captain. But it's not fair to make him be ready for all that right now."

As for general manager Don Waddell, he has decided to deal with all sorts of these questions in his usual style -- blanketing his words with humor.

Speculating himself on what the fortunes of his twin two-year-golds could be this season, Waddell decided to use an automotive analogy.

"Kovalchuk just bought a $140,000 Mercedes V-something, so his neighbor (Heatley) had to go buy a Porsche 911," said Waddell. "The first year in the parking lot we had a lot of Fords and Chevys. The parking lot has been upgraded."

With last year's 1-2 Calder Trophy punch leading Atlanta to such great heights -- OK, leading the Thrashers to the worst record in hockey again, but at least feeling better about themselves -- it's easy to see how Heatley and Kovalchuk should lead the NHL sophomore class in development.

But what about those less fortunate second-year players? Those who aren't as gifted as the Atlanta kids, or aren't asked to do as much as they have to for a team otherwise devoid of skill players. Here then is a list from 3-10 of the league's other significant sophomores. They are ranked according to their predicted success in avoiding the noted "sophomore jinx"...

3. Erik Cole, LW, Carolina Hurricanes

	Cole

One of the least publicized members of the rookie class early on last season -- partly because he played in what was then a ghost town for NHL publicity, partly because he didn't join Rod Brind'Amour on a line until December. By the time basketball season ended, however, it was clear that Cole wasn't only the most consistently effective first-year forward in the league -- or at least the most consistently effective first-year forward outside of Atlanta -- but was a star in the making.

ECAC born and bred, Cole (16 goals, 40 points) is too much the complete player to allow something as intangible as a second-year plague affect him. Heatley might be a born leader and Kovalchuk a natural scorer, but, at 23, Cole has already developed a veteran's sense. Despite the occasional defensive positioning gaffe, he is one of those players who does almost everything well, and his best attribute is what will make him an elite player -- the kid is simply always around the puck.

While a sophomore jinx is something that shouldn't be part of his future landscape, the only thing that could impede Cole's progress is the team he plays for. Having been kicked, spat upon, laughed at and simply ignored for too long, the Hurricanes were resolute and harmonious during what really shouldn't have been considered a shocking run to the Stanley Cup finals.

How they handle the success should be the most enjoyable story in the Southeast Division this season. It might be left to their mature second-year winger to help them avoid going from the team that no one respected to the team that doesn't take its divisional competition seriously enough.

4. Nick Boynton, D, Boston Bruins

	Boynton

A defenseman both slick and physical when he wants to be, it figures that Boynton is going to have to display both of those characteristics from start to finish this season for the Bruins. Why? Because of yet another Beantown battle over a contract with a star player, that's why.

Like Chicago, the Bruins are an Original Six team with an economic policy that dates to the early 20th Century. Like Jason Allison and others before him, restricted free agent defenseman Kyle McLaren, perhaps knowing the contract he's seeking won't be worth the fight, is publicly calling for a one-way ticket out of town. In the Bruins' defense, McLaren has been hurt too often and hasn't been as consistent as he should have been in his seven years. He also only played 38 games last season, contributing no goals from the blue line. Under that welcoming umbrella entered Boynton, not as big as his would-be teammate, but certainly as effective.

The Bruins rookie fit in well with the likes of Don Sweeney and Hal Gill, showing a defensive reliability beyond his years, while pinching in for four goals and 18 points during the year. If Boynton can at least delay the sophomore jinx, the Bruins might feel secure enough to trade McLaren, possibly as early as the beginning of the regular season. If the Bruins do, it will become incumbent on Boynton to make his second season every bit the success on both ends of the ice, as it was when he was a rookie.

5. Jeff Jillson, D, San Jose Sharks

	Jillson

Based primarily on his hulking size (6-3, 220 pounds), Jillson was a Calder candidate before the Sharks' season had cleared the October gate. But he would never really be in rookie race because Jillson had the good fortune of playing for a team with enough veterans at its disposal to smartly bring young players along slowly.

After a 48-game rookie campaign, this could be a breakout year for Jillson. He has gained the confidence to use his body effectively, yet has the ability to contribute the rare offensive moment. Moreover, San Jose should now be considered as much a Cup contender as usual Western honchos Colorado and Detroit. A roster loaded with talented two-way forwards will only help expedite Jillson's progress.

6. Andy McDonald, C, Anaheim

	McDonald

A latecomer among the league's first-year performers. But shortly after his late autumn promotion, the bug-sized McDonald (5-10, 175 on stilts and wearing a flak jacket) proved to be an impressive playmaker in the middle. That's not bad for a player who was never drafted, but when you're short and can't even dominate the ECAC ranks, NHL scouts usually don't have a problem dismissing you.

During his first professional season, during which he scored 40 points in 46 games for the Cincinnati Ducklings, he contributed just one point (an assist) in 16 games in Anaheim. McDonald started last season averaging more than a point a game in the minors, then took advantage of his chance with the big Ducks, scoring seven goals and 28 points in 53 games. Too bad that couldn't have carried over into the playoffs, but then, this is Anaheim we're talking about.

Similar to his prep days, though, McDonald did have time last season to prove that he's a prototypical late bloomer with a competitive soul. On a youthful and (FINALLY) developing Mighty Ducks team, McDonald should be handed enough playing time and responsibility to continue his growth spurt from surprising newcomer to established NHL center.

Little guys have an extra ingredient that helps raise their work ethic and builds a resistance to things like a sophomore jinx. It's called paranoia. So who says size doesn't matter? This year, Anaheim fans will.

7. Mark Bell, LW, Chicago Blackhawks

	Bell

The prospective landscape around Chicagoland is often rather barren, but both last year and this season, it has been left to Bell to play the role of Hawks hypester. After racking up significant scoring numbers in juniors and with the AHL's Norfolk Admirals in 2000-01, Bell was trumpeted as a burly center who could complement a team too full of Steve Sullivans. Yet he wound up on left wing in his first full season with the Hawks, and still wasn't as ready as some people predicted he'd be.

With an educational season behind him, and hopefully a summer of physical growth under his weight belt, Bell should better fit into his winger's role. Having scored 12 goals and 28 points as a rookie, Bell gained consistency as the season went on, which bodes well for any second-year player afraid of taking a step back. Without Tony Amonte in the lineup, however, it'll be interesting to see if the Hawks decide it could be time to move Bell into the middle at some point. That would be a ripe condition for the onset of jinx.

8. Kris Beech, C, Pittsburgh Penguins

	Beech

When the undiplomatic Mr. Jagr went to Washington, the undeveloped Mr. Beech was the politically correct pacifier handed to hockey fans tired of being told their team was flat broke. So it was no surprise that the Penguins' foremost acquisition in the five-player (plus the ever-popular future considerations) Jagr deal with the Capitals didn't turn out to be quite as glittering as advertised.

Having scored in bunches with buddy Pavel Brendl for the WHL's Calgary Hitmen, Beech, the seventh overall pick in 1999, came to Pittsburgh with a lot to learn about all other aspects of the game. Unfortunately, forwards displaying effective defensive responsibilities aren't exactly in abundance in Pittsburgh. But with Mario Lemieux tending to his aching body all season, Beech was going to play come hell or high waves. Naturally, he drowned.

When it was over and the bankrupt Penguins found themselves out of the playoffs, Beech had dutifully served in 79 growing-pain games, finishing with just 10 goals and a team-worst, minus-25 rating.

Beech will someday be the scorer he was in junior. But it'll take years and a successful financial recovery by Mario, Inc. Until then, he's going to struggle learning how to play the right way, and that's only if Rick Kehoe can establish himself as a head coach with staying power.

9. Kristian Huselius, RW, Florida Panthers

	Huselius

Not only is this guy expected to almost immediately become the heart and soul of the Panthers, he is the top candidate for Sophomore Jinx Poster Child of the NHL. Not only are the Panthers sorely wanting for star players in general, and competent forwards in particular, they led the league with 363 man games lost to injury last season. Following form, they have already lost both ages-old spiritual leader Paul Laus (maybe forever) and the kid who, from start to early finish last season, was a go-to forward.

The team leader with 23 goals and best scoring forward at 45 points, Huselius was as consistently good as any rookie forward can hope to be. He came on strong at the end in the Calder Trophy voting, finishing third to the apparently incomparable Atlanta twins. But as prototypical Panther luck would have it, Huselius starts out this season with a sprained left knee that will force him to miss all of training camp and perhaps the first couple of weeks of the season. By then, the Panthers should be comfortably ensconced in the Southeast cellar.

When he returns, Huselius should still get his points. After all, Valeri Bure won't be healthy enough to score much, so who else is going to score for Florida? But regardless of statistics, Huselius will suffer without proper support players in the middle and on the opposite wing. This will be mistaken as a sophomore jinx, even though Huselius' true malady is harder to diagnose -- plain bad luck.

10. Radim Vrbata, RW, Colorado Avalanche; Pavel Datsyuk, C, Detroit Red Wings; Mikael Samuelsson, RW, New York Rangers
Pick one, any one. All of them are going to eventually be decent NHL players. Until then, they aren't ripe to make instant impressions, and have too many talented players around them to offer much of a contribution either way.

Call it a jinx if you want to. But it doesn't hurt to start slow.

Rob Parent of the Delaware County (Pa.) Times is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.