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Patriots win not out of the question
By Joe Theismann
Special to ESPN.com

NEW ORLEANS -- When I tell people the New England Patriots will win Super Bowl XXXVI, they think I am nuts. The first question they ask is, "Do you mean taking the points?" And I say no -- the Patriots will win it outright.

The St. Louis Rams have created an aura that they are an invincible scoring machine, like the San Francisco 49ers used to be. But take a look at the last three years. In 1999, they barely beat Tampa Bay in the NFC championship game and Tennessee in the Super Bowl. Last season they lost to New Orleans in the NFC wild-card game. This season they barely beat Philadelphia in the NFC title game to get to New Orleans. I don't include the victory over Green Bay because Brett Favre threw six interceptions.

Don't get me wrong: The Rams are a terrific football team, one for the ages. But when they get to the playoffs and face competition that is comparable to them, the Rams end up in close games instead of winning in a blowout. People are predicting a Super Bowl like the one played between San Francisco and San Diego, when the 49ers won 49-26, or the one when the 49ers beat Denver 55-10, but I don't see it.

The Rams have a psychological advantage when teams have not experienced their speed up close. They will say other teams don't realize how fast they are while watching them on film. True, yet the Patriots have played them and proved they could hang with the Rams.

In fact, the Patriots can draw confidence, knowing they could have won the game if they could have eliminated their mistakes. Antowain Smith fumbled on the Rams' 3 with the Patriots leading 10-3 in the second quarter. And in the third quarter, Tom Brady threw an interception in Rams' territory one play after the Patriots recovered a Kurt Warner fumble. When I look at the Super Bowl matchup in light of that, I wonder, "Why not?"

People talk about the Rams' superior athletes. But Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Tedy Bruschi and Roman Phifer are all athletic. So are Troy Brown and David Patten. No one looks at New England in terms of its individual stars, as we do the Rams. One looks instead at the Patriots' overall team concept. Plus, keep in mind, Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel are as creative defensively as Mike Martz is offensively.

Obviously, if the Patriots make more mistakes than the Rams, they can't win. And if the Rams make no mistakes, they won't be beat. But the Rams have been susceptible to turnovers. They led the league in turnovers, with 44, and had three or more in eight of their 16 regular-season games. The Rams were 6-2 in those games, turning the ball over eight times against New Orleans and six times against Tampa Bay, their only two losses. And four of the six wins came by seven points or less, including the Week 10 game against New England. The Rams may not be afraid of making mistakes, but they cost them when the turnovers come in bunches.

Will the Rams' receivers catch the ball or will they drop passes? When the Rams lose, the receivers either drop balls or lay them on the ground. Catching the football will be critical. As much as the Rams rely on throwing the ball, if the receivers don't catch a crucial third-down pass, they will have missed an opportunity and given one to the Patriots. In the Super Bowl, you can't miss any opportunities.

One thing people overlook is that the Patriots' offense can score points. Antowain Smith may run for only 80 yards, but every yard he gains will be valuable toward their ability to control the football and keep it away from the Rams' offense.

In addition, the Patriots should be able to throw the ball on the Rams' defense. While their offensive scheme is neither complex nor complicated, the Patriots have a tight end in Jermaine Wiggins who can make plays, as he proved against Oakland, and small receivers -- Troy Brown and David Patten -- who should be able to change direction and make plays on turf, much like the Rams' receivers.

Lovie Smith's defense may not allow Brady to attack down the field, but Brady will not face the same kind of pressure he got from Pittsburgh because Smith won't send as many pass rushers.

Brady's ankle should loosen up. Remember, Sunday's game starts at 5:30 p.m. local time. Three or four hours makes a world of difference when it comes to healing. The turf will be tougher on Brady's ankle, but Belichick said he felt Brady could have come back in the last game and he firmly believes Brady can get the job done.

Brady was a better choice than Drew Bledsoe for the following reason: If Bledsoe started and got hurt and then Brady comes in on a susceptible ankle and reaggravates it, the Patriots would have to go with Damon Huard, who hasn't played this season. But with Brady starting, if he hurts the ankle again, the Patriots would have the same scenario they had a week ago with Bledsoe entering the game. And Bledsoe has proven to himself and his teammates he can still win a game.

Regardless of what the Patriots do on offense, the most critical matchup is Marshall Faulk on the Patriots' linebackers. Faulk is the key to the game -- period. The Rams will try to create two or three mismatches where Faulk gets isolated on a linebacker, as he was on Phifer in Week 10.

But it is more important for the Patriots to control Faulk running the football. Remember, the Rams only generated 24 points against New England when Warner threw for 401 yards. Any time a defense can make an offense one-dimensional, it has an advantage.

The Patriots can follow a similar game plan for Faulk to the one they had in Week 10. Faulk had 153 total yards, 83 coming on the ground. That's the key -- if they can hold Faulk to around 80 rushing yards or less, New England will have a decided advantage.

Faulk is the most dangerous and most valuable player in football. It becomes his game. If the Rams win, Faulk has to be the MVP. If they don't, a New England defensive player will be the MVP, which is why I picked Milloy. He can make game-changing plays with his tackling ability.

Then there is the one area where the Patriots may enjoy their biggest edge -- special teams, as they showed against Pittsburgh. Special teams have played a big part in past Super Bowls, as New England can attest. In Super Bowl XXXI, Desmond Howard's 99-yard kickoff return sealed the game for Green Bay. I thought the Patriots could come back, but it was evident the momentum had changed.

I am the first to recognize the Rams as an incredible team. When the Rams began the last three seasons with a 6-0 record, people started thinking they could go undefeated. But then the human element emerged, and the Rams lost. Sunday could be a game where it could happen again.

New England doesn't have to play a perfect game. The Patriots had some chances in Week 10 and only lost by seven. I look at the score as 27-24. The game will be close and decided at the end. Adam Vinatieri really got the Patriots to where they are. There is no reason why he can't get them to the top. What's so nuts about that?

A game analyst for ESPN's Sunday Night Football, former NFL QB Joe Theismann won a Super Bowl and a league MVP award. He serves up a daily Cup o' Joe for ESPN.com throughout Super Bowl week.

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