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Thursday, August 31 By Russell Baxter Special to ESPN.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
There's one sure thing in this otherwise unpredictable NFL season: You can't underestimate the importance of a solid and consistent running attack. We're not talking about yards gained; instead, it's the commitment to the ground game.
The good teams demoralize defenses by stuffing the football down their throats. The more they sell the run, the more effectively they can throw. Play-action passing isn't very effective if the opposition isn't fooled. And the more often teams run, the less pressure they put on the quarterback. Take a look at the NFL's top five running attacks, according to yards per game -- the conventional way the league ranks this category:
A respectable enough group, although the Jets' 2-6 mark looks a little funny for a team that supposedly has an effective running game this season. Now let's look at the top five teams when it comes to rushing attempts per game:
Tom Coughlin has been especially persistent when it comes to running the football -- with or without a healthy Fred Taylor in the lineup. In all eight games this season, the Jaguars have run the football a minimum of 33 times. That's remarkable consistency and patience, and it has paid off with the franchise's best-ever start. Combine that kind of commitment with a much-improved defense, and this Jacksonville team has a completely different look than its predecessors of the last four seasons. Perhaps the look of a champion. And you don't have to tell Jimmy Johnson what wins in the NFL. Since his debut with the Dolphins in 1996 (including playoffs), Miami is 35-5 when it runs the ball 25 or more times, but an amazing 0-19 when it fails to run the ball at least 25 times. We'll stick with that statistic until Johnson's team takes that zero off the board. Even the high-flying Rams, known best these days for quarterback Kurt Warner's amazing start (24 touchdown passes in eight games), need to run the football for balance. During their 6-0 start, St. Louis managed at least 25 rushing attempts in each game, hence effective play-action passing to speedy wide receivers Isaac Bruce, Az-Zahir Hakim and Torry Holt, as well as running back Marshall Faulk out of the backfield. It's also worth noting that Warner was sacked just 10 times in those half-dozen outings. But the last two weeks have seen the once-unbeaten Rams run the football just 19 and 16 times, respectively, in the narrow losses to the Titans and Lions. And Warner was sacked an additional 10 times in those two contests. After nine weeks of play (128 games), it continues to be proven that it's how many times you run the ball rather than how much yardage you gain (excluding ties). The evidence is clear:
No fancy passing Those numbers figure to go up this weekend. The Eagles will finally start rookie quarterback Donovan McNabb and the banged-up Cowboys will probably turn to backup Jason Garrett, while the Bears (Jim Miller) and 49ers (Steve Stenstrom) are looking at their third different quarterbacks of the season. With eight weeks remaining, there have already been 50 different starting quarterbacks this season, an alarming amount of changes. A look at the number of different starting quarterbacks since 1995, when the league jumped to 30 teams (now 31):
Even more amazing is that this has been a decade of variety. It's worth noting that McNabb will become the 145th different player to start a game at quarterback in the 1990s. Is it any reason why we marvel at Green Bay's Brett Favre and his NFL record 117 starts in a row. Russell Baxter is the lead NFL researcher for ESPN.
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