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 Thursday, September 16
Coulda been a contender? Jets, Bills still are
 
By Joe Theismann
Special to ESPN.com

 Despite what happened in Week 1, I believe the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills can still be AFC contenders. I actually would consider New York more of a contender than Buffalo.

Doug Flutie
Doug Flutie faced constant pressure from the Colts in Week 1.
Doug Flutie is magical, and the Bills might win an extra game or two because of Flutie's play-making ability. But if the Bills struggle, at what point do they make an economical decision and get Rob Johnson some playing time? Buffalo is in the team-to-watch category.

Because of the season-ending injury to Vinny Testaverde, I think this game got closer from a competitive standpoint. If the Jets had all their weapons, they would be better on both sides of the ball than the Bills.

This game probably won't be high-scoring. I look for both teams to score in the teens. In certain games, points become so critical. And this is one of them because you just don't know if anyone will put points on the board.

That said, here are my keys for both teams:

New York Jets
1. Rick Mirer's decision-making: Because Rick Mirer has only been with the Jets since Aug. 20, he will be running a limited offense. The biggest question will be what he doesn't do, not what he does. Mirer can't make the crucial turnover like a Trent Dilfer. He can't make bad decisions. Mirer must play not to lose the game.

2. Contain Flutie: I think the Jets defensively are one of the top two or three teams in football. They have added some depth and are playing the 3-4 again, getting Bryan Cox on the field more as a run-stopper and a pressure linebacker.

The Jets defense has played Flutie very tough. Last year, he was an unknown entity. But people like Jets defensive coordinator Bill Belichick have been able to scout Flutie and know what he does and doesn't do well. If you give coordinators a chance to look at you for a year, you better come up with something different and be very proficient. Of all the teams the Bills play, the Jets defend Flutie the best.

3. Time of possession: With Flutie at quarterback, I think Buffalo can throw 40-45 times. I don't believe the Jets can. New York must control time of possession by running the football with their workhorse running back, Curtis Martin. Mirer shouldn't be asked to even carry part of the offensive load.

At the end of the game, if Mirer has completed 15 of 23 passes for 170 yards and one touchdown, the Jets should win. Those numbers would indicate that the Jets controlled the clock and ran effectively with Martin, which helps Mirer to be a more efficient passer. If Mirer has to throw 35 or 40 passes, the Jets will have a tough time winning.

Buffalo Bills
1. Find a running game: The Bills' main problem is running the ball. Antowain Smith gained only seven yards on six carries last week. With the Bills' inability to produce on the ground, Flutie had to throw the ball 42 times last week. You can't ask any NFL quarterback to throw the ball that many times and be successful, except for two: Drew Bledsoe and Dan Marino, who happen to also be in the AFC East. It's paramount that Buffalo find some kind of running game to offset the pressure Flutie will face.

Even though they still have Pro Bowl guard Ruben Brown, the Bills' offensive line is somewhat new and suspect. I think the line will be highly challenged this week. Losing Thurman Thomas hurts them, because the Bills lose a pass catcher. So that's why the Bills must control the line of scrimmage and establish a running game. The key matchup will be the offensive line of the Bills against the blitzing schemes of the Jets up front, but an effective ground attack will minimize the pressure on Flutie.

2. Spread out the offense: The Bills offense will perform better in three-receiver sets, and Flutie is best when the field is spread out. The Bills are operating more with a fullback in the backfield, and I don't think that's the strength of the team. Putting a fullback in front of Smith is like putting a fullback in front of Barry Sanders. It doesn't play to the strength of the player.

The Bills made a living off three wideouts, a tight end and one back, and it only managed to take them to four Super Bowls. It's also easier to know where pass rushers are coming from. That scheme might leave one side open, but with Flutie's athletic ability you are better off going that route than having an extra back in the backfield.

3. Confuse Mirer: I think the Bills defense needs to give Mirer a lot of looks. They can't let him get comfortable looking at one thing defensively. Varying the schemes will create recognition problems for Mirer, who is still learning the Jets offense.

Mirer isn't new to unfamiliar situations. After being the No. 2 overall draft pick in 1993, he started as a rookie with no real training at the quarterback position out of Notre Dame. He was a little bit lost. Chicago picked him up and wanted to make him a starter without any training. He then sat behind Brett Favre in Green Bay.

Suddenly, he's in New York with an opportunity to learn, be around a solid coach and have a chance to restart his career. Now that Testaverde is out, his career has hit the accelerator again. I still think Mirer has a lot of potential, but in his Jets' starting debut, the Bills won't make it easy for him.

Former NFL quarterback Joe Theismann works as a game analyst for ESPN's Sunday Night Football.

 


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