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Tuesday, February 11
Updated: March 25, 3:03 PM ET
 
NFC West: Warner's future in St. Louis uncertain

By Len Pasquarelli
ESPN.com

San Francisco's 10 victories in 2002 represented one fewer than the average number of wins by the seven other division champions in the league but were still enough for the 49ers to capture a realigned NFC West by three games over their closest competitor.

With a new head coach (Dennis Erickson) in San Francisco, and the likelihood that St. Louis will rebound from its poorest season since 1998, things don't figure to be as lopsided in 2003. There is coaching stability for now, with three of the four sideline bosses returning, but Dave McGinnis (Arizona), Mike Holmgren (Seattle) and Mike Martz (St. Louis) all might need strong showings to keep their jobs beyond this year.

Notable is that all four coaching staffs have underdone shakeups. The Cards hope new coordinator Jerry Sullivan can breathe life into an offense that was No. 27 in 2002. Holmgren is counting on longtime friend and associate Ray Rhodes to enact a quick fix on the Seahawks' 28th-rated defense.

The most intriguing item on the offseason agenda: How the Rams handle the situation with quarterback Kurt Warner, due a $6 million option bonus at the end of the month, and confronted with having to compete against youngster Marc Bulger for the starting job, assuming the Rams exercise the option.

Here's a look at each NFC West team (in order of finish in 2002):

Head coach
Dennis Erickson
2002 record
10-6
2002 finish
1st in NFC West
(advanced to divisional playoffs)
San Francisco 49ers
Overview: Despite claiming their first division championship since 1997, and reaching double-digit victories for the fourth time in the six-year tenure of deposed head coach Steve Mariucci, the 49ers are undergoing a shakeup. There is a new head coach in Dennis Erickson, figures to be a new look on defense and, most important, a new budget that some outsiders feel will cramp the club's style. Actually, the budget, believed to be the franchise's first in 20 years, is a wise idea and should keep the Niners out of the kind of salary-cap excess the club practiced in the past.

There is still sufficient talent here to win, but the division should be more competitive in 2003, and the hiring of Erickson will end some continuity that fueled the franchise for almost two decades and could mean a step backward before moving forward again.

Biggest Needs: The biggest item on the "to do" list was addressed with the somewhat surprising addition of Erickson, who had zero playoff appearances in his first NFL incarnation, a four-year stint in Seattle. Correctly or not, San Francisco is regarded now as a rudderless franchise, something of which the team has never been accused. For a month, team officials have said they need to improve the defense, yet the new head coach is a man whose expertise is on the offensive side.

On the field, a defense that was ranked a deceptively lofty 14th in 2002 must improve its pass rush and learn to get off the field on third down. San Francisco surrendered a 46.9 percent third-down conversion rate, the worst in the NFL, and someone seemed to make a poor draft judgement on "nickel" cornerback Mike Rumph, a No. 1 choice who became a favorite target for the opposition quarterbacks almost every week. The 49ers offense could use another big lineman, must settle on its starting tailback, and needs a complement to Terrell Owens.

Biggest Decisions: With a head coach in place, the 49ers can move on now to other issues. There are some aging players with high salary-cap values for 2003 who must be evaluated, not in terms of what they have meant to the 49ers in the past, but how they will perform over the next couple years. Don't look for the perennial underachiever J.J. Stokes to be back at wide receiver. And although classy tailback Garrison Hearst rushed for a team-best 972 yards, the 49ers could opt to part with him as well. Defensive tackle Bryant Young, another class act, didn't play up to his paycheck in 2002 and could well come under scrutiny in training camp.

Cap Room: Although the 49ers are in far better shape than in recent years, they are still roughly $6 million over the projected spending limit, but with some ready means of whittling down that number. It is hard to imagine wide receiver J.J. Stokes returning, and there is some other dead wood that will be chopped from the roster as well. Wide receiver Terrell Owens ($6.7 million), quarterback Jeff Garcia ($8.25 million) and defensive tackle Bryant Young ($8.418) all could be in line to restructure.

Head coach
Mike Martz
2002 record
7-9
2002 finish
2nd in NFC West
St. Louis Rams
Overview: Some players went into 2002 believing they had fumbled their birthright a year earlier, with the loss to New England in Super Bowl XXXVI a fluke, one for which the Rams would atone. There was, however, more than a hint of arrogance in that belief. And when St. Louis opened the season with five straight defeats, the streak precipitated some finger-pointing and second-guessing. Those elements weren't even resolved with a five-game winning streak that got the Rams back to .500 before the stretch run.

So is this to be the team once again that, for three years before 2002, was a viable Super Bowl contender? Or is a makeover, perhaps beginning with the quarterback position, necessary to get the talented Rams back on track?

Biggest Needs: It's convenient to look at an error-prone offense, and the fact the Rams' minus-19 turnover differential was the worst in the NFL, and suggest that merely improving ball security will solve most of the problems. But the St. Louis defense dropped to No. 13 in the league, got terrible play at the linebacker position where there were two new starters, and wasn't nearly as resourceful as it had been in 2002. St. Louis needs to upgrade at the linebacker spot, certainly find a replacement for middle 'backer Jamie Duncan, and create more pass rush from the inside. Third-year tackle Ryan Pickett has to move into the starting lineup.

The offensive line, and need for a more productive No. 3 wide receiver, are priorities on the other side of the ball. Former Steelers first-round pick Troy Edwards could surprise people as the third wideout once he gets a full training camp to learn the offense. But this team has ignored its line problems way too long, and simply moving Adam Timmerman to right tackle may not answer all the woes.

Biggest Decisions: One could argue pretty convincingly that the decision on whether to keep quarterback Kurt Warner, who is due an option bonus of $6 million at the end of this month, is the biggest in the league this spring. Warner fared well in an offseason physical but, even with glowing reports from the doctors, the guy simply wasn't the same player in 2002 as the one who captured a pair of Most Valuable Player awards. It looks like Martz has decided to bring back aging cornerback Aeneas Williams, who missed much of 2002, although the veteran will have to accept a salary reduction.

Cap Room: Even before the Monday decision to slap a "franchise" tag on offensive tackle Orlando Pace, the Rams were facing a cap crunch. The club had a total of $70.569 million committed and must make some big decisions and ask a few players to restructure current deals. Kurt Warner is due a $6 million option bonus on Feb. 28, and his agent has indicated that he will not rework his deal to accommodate the Rams' needs. There are a few veteran free agents, like cornerback Dre Bly, to re-sign. St. Louis officials will ask cornerback Aeneas Williams ($8.2 million cap value) and wideout Isaac Bruce ($7.34 million) to restructure their deals.

Head coach
Mike Holmgren
2002 record
7-9
2002 finish
3rd in NFC West
Seattle Seahawks
Overview: Over the first half of the 2002 campaign, when the naysayers were calling for Mike Holmgren's head, there seemed little reason to counter their criticisms. The Seahawks, who started 1-5 and played listlessly in doing so, appeared to have no element upon which to hang any hopes for the future. The defense was bad and stayed that way, finishing 28th statistically among all NFL teams.

The offense, however, might have gotten a break of sorts when quarterback Trent Dilfer sustained a season-ending Achilles injury at Dallas on Oct. 27. Matt Hasselbeck, hand-picked by Holmgren in 2001 to lead his team, suddenly looked like the passer who starred in all those preseason games during his Green Bay tenure. Seattle posted a 5-3 record over the second half of the season, Hasselbeck put a vise grip on the No. 1 job, and youngsters like wideout Koren Robinson began to make plays. Maybe the best part of the offseason is that Holmgren the coach has opted to dump Holmgren the general manager.

Biggest Needs: Holmgren definitely needs Hasselbeck, recently re-signed to a two-year contract, to pick up in 2003 where he left off last season. And Robinson and fellow wideout Darrell Jackson must continue to develop in the West Coast-style passing game. Most of the needs, though, are on the defensive side of the ball, where longtime coordinator Ray Rhodes has been brought in to try to fix a dilapidated unit.

It is certainly a daunting challenge for Rhodes, who won't find the cupboard completely bare, but inherits a unit that is slow and aging. There are a few promising young performers, such as second-year tackle Rocky Bernard, but Seattle will have to draft well and use free agency to fill some other holes. This defense isn't going to improve until it stops the run first, and there simply isn't enough upfront yet to accomplish that feat.

Biggest Decisions: The franchise made one superb offseason decision already in re-signing right offensive tackle Chris Terry, a guy who saved the line over the second half of the '02 season, to a five-year contract. But the club might need the wisdom of Solomon if forced to choose between left offensive tackle Walter Jones and linebacker Anthony Simmons for the "franchise" designation, assuming both remain unsigned.

Some people in the league feel Simmons is an underrated gem, a guy who will generate a lot of interest if he escapes into the unrestricted free-agent market. On the other hand, Jones is a perennial Pro Bowl player, his only drawback being a series of shoulder and knee injuries that are a bit worrisome.

Cap Room: With just $57.597 million charged to the '03 cap to this point, the Seahawks are in a position to do some free agency shopping if they desire. More important, perhaps, they have the wherewithal to re-sign key veterans like Jones and Simmons. Look for the Seahawks to try to reach an extension agreement with Jackson, who is entering the final season of his original contract.

Head coach
Dave McGinnis
2002 record
5-11
2002 finish
4th in NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Overview: The consensus entering 2002 was that the Cardinals could be improved but that, playing in a division that included powerhouses like St. Louis and San Francisco, an upgrade might not necessarily translate into more victories. In truth, Arizona won two fewer games in '02 than the previous season, but the decline had more to do with the Cardinals' own shortcomings than with the quality of the competition in the division.

Give coach Dave McGinnis credit for getting his undermanned outfit to play hard virtually every week. But this remains a franchise stuck in neutral, with holes on both sides of the ball, and the good-guy McGinnis is running out of time.

Biggest Needs: The laundry list is a lengthy one but, even more significant than settling on a quarterback for the long-term and developing some viable playmakers, the Cardinals must improve a pass rush that has ranked among the NFL's worst for several seasons. Arizona posted a league-low 21 sacks in 2002, 15.6 below the league average. In the past three seasons, the Cardinals had just 65 sacks, by far the NFL low over that period.

A front four that only four seasons ago looked like it could be one of the league's best young groups has disintegrated because of injury and free agency. The Cardinals have the draft's best rusher right under their noses, in Terrell Suggs of Arizona State, but he could be long gone by the time they exercise the sixth overall selection in the first round.

Biggest Decisions: The two biggest conundrums both involve pending unrestricted free agents, quarterback Jake Plummer and wide receiver David Boston, and whether to designate either a "franchise" player. Certainly both represent gambles -- Plummer because of slumping numbers and the fact he has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes in all but one season; and Boston because of off-field difficulties.

The team must also decide what to do with former first-round tailback Thomas Jones, who has lost a starting job each of the past three years. There is plenty of cap with which to pursue free agents but, beyond the pure financial implications, the Cardinals really don't have much to use for a sales pitch.

If the scattershot Plummer departs, is McGinnis ready to turn to second-year pro Josh McCown, a third-rounder in the 2002 draft or must he seek out a caretaker veteran at the position?

Cap Room: With just $38.03 million committed against the cap limit of about $75 million, the Cardinals have the most spending room in the NFL, and are anxious to use some of it to bolster the defense. Some of the space must be directed toward re-signing either Plummer or Boston, or both, and toward acquiring a viable pass-rusher. Arizona doesn't have any big-ticket players who will be cap casualties. The player with largest cap value on the team, cornerback Duane Starks ($4.6 million), is a keeper, although he was too often injured in 2002.

Len Pasquarelli is a senior writer for ESPN.com.






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