With the fifth pick in this weekend's NFL draft, the Falcons are in an
enviable position. Unless they foul up, always a possibility with the
Falcons, they're likely to land an impact player without having to pay an
eight-figure signing bonus.
But you know what they always say about Atlanta on draft day: If wishes
were horses, the Falcons would ride. Or something like that.
|  | | It's a longshot, but the Falcons would love to land Michael Vick. |
Anyway, just two seasons removed from playing in the Super Bowl, the
Falcons enter the draft with a wish list longer than a rich kid at Christmas.
Problem is, the Falcons are no different than a lot of teams near the top of
the draft.
They love quarterback Michael Vick, but who doesn't?
They would like to trade down in the first round and secure more draft
picks, but who doesn't?
They hope to fill three or four vital needs in one draft and become a
contender, but who doesn't?
As last year's trade-free first round showed, it's hard to get anything
done when all of the teams are in the same situation. Even those teams that
are good at manipulating the draft board to fit their needs run into
roadblocks when everyone is thinking alike.
That means the Falcons' hands are tied more so than most teams picking where
they are. They can't do a thing until the four teams selecting ahead of them
figure out what they want to do. Whether the Falcons have their draft-day
wishes granted depends totally on what the Chargers, Cardinals, Browns and
Bengals do before them.
"The worst-case scenario is we get the guy who's fifth on our wish list,"
said Ron Hill, the Falcons' vice president of football operations. "To me,
that's not a bad option."
An hour into the draft, it might be the Falcons' only option.
But let's start at the top.
The Falcons have studied Vick thoroughly and like what they see. As the
only other team in the draft's top 10 that is actively seeking a quarterback
(Chris Chandler, while still capable, is an injury-prone 36 and journeyman
Eric Zeier excites no one except University of Georgia fans), they would be
the logical candidate to trade up for the mobile Virginia Tech signal-caller.
Alas, the Chargers, who pick first, also like what they see and are
negotiating a contract with Vick. Recent reports indicate that those
negotiations have stalled and that the Chargers might be willing to trade the
pick or simply draft someone else. The Falcons even contacted the Chargers on Thursday about a possible deal, but are the Chargers really serious about trading the top pick, or is it just a typical case of contract posturing?
There is speculation that Vick could slide to the Falcons at five if the
Chargers don't pick him, but if that happens quarterback-hungry teams such as
the Panthers and Chiefs would enter the bidding and try to move ahead of
Atlanta. If the Falcons want to move up to the No. 1 pick, and reports
indicate they've at least entertained the notion, it would decimate their
draft or their roster or both. For a team that has won nine games in two
seasons since it was in the Super Bowl, the object is to add quality players,
not subtract them.
In addition to trading up, the Falcons also have considered the possibility
of trading down. With so many needs, they might be better off with two or
three very good players instead of one great one.
Alas, the Cardinals, who pick second, and the Browns, who pick third, are
also actively looking to trade down. Those teams have been peddling those
picks around the league for weeks, with no takers.
The problem is twofold: The Cardinals and Browns are asking for too much in
return and there aren't a lot of teams looking to move up in a draft notable
for its relatively even talent. If a highly coveted player does slip to five,
the Falcons might get some late offers to move up from teams such as the
Packers and Panthers, but that's not something the Falcons should count on.
More than likely, the Falcons will stay put at five and pray that their
streak of bad karma in the draft suddenly reverses itself. Assuming Vick goes
to the Chargers, the consensus next four best players are Florida defensive
tackle Gerard Warren, Missouri defensive end Justin Smith, Texas offensive
tackle Leonard Davis and Michigan wide receiver David Terrell. The only thing
that could mess with that scenario is if the Browns go for one of the top
running backs at No. 3.
Alas, even if that happens, the Falcons won't be guaranteed one of the two
players they covet. Finding Smith or Terrell still on the board would make
their day. Finding both on the board would make it a very difficult decision.
Either way, the Falcons would plug a huge hole with a much-needed
playmaker. Terrell would fill the void as a spread-the-defense deep threat
left when Tony Martin was released two years ago. Justin Smith would make the
Falcons forget Chuck Smith, an unstoppable force in 1998 who was MIA in 1999
and then departed via free agency.
The good news is that even if Smith and Terrell are gone, the Falcons will
get either Warren or Davis. If Warren falls to No. 5, which is more likely
since Davis probably won't get past the Bengals at four, the Falcons can
expect a phone call from the Packers, who covet Warren.
Neither Warren nor Davis would fill the team's need for playmakers at the
playmaking positions. However, both would fill needs that are just as
important though less visible than wide receiver and defensive end.
"We'll get a good player," said Hill, who has been given more draft
authority by still-omnipotent coach Dan Reeves. "You're talking about a guy
that should be a Pro Bowl-type guy."
Indeed, any of the four would provide immediate help for the Falcons.
Warren? The Falcons finished 27th against the run in the NFL.
|  | | David Terrell could be the first of many talented wide receivers chosen in the 2001 draft. |
Smith? The Falcons' 31 sacks were less than half that of the league-leading
Saints.
Davis? The Falcons' 61 sacks allowed ranked second only to the Panthers in
the league.
Terrell? Starting wide receivers Shawn Jefferson and Terance Mathis caught
seven touchdown passes between them.
If Vick ends up with the Chargers as expected, the Falcons will be assured
to landing one of those five players. They should be happy no matter what
happens, but that will still leave a quarterback of the future high on their
wish list.
That's where the Falcons need to get lucky. Purdue's Drew Brees is sliding
down draft boards as Saturday approaches. If the Lions (18), Dolphins (26) or
Raiders (28) don't take him, he might still be there when the Falcons pick in
the second round, 35th overall.
With so few options, the Falcons' best option might be to stay put and fill
as many holes as they can. The commonly held belief is that Reeves must win
this season or else, but the Falcons should remember that this isn't a
one-year rebuilding project.
The ripple effect
The NFL's first free-agency period has petered out, but there are a couple
of potential moves that could be made prior to the draft that would affect
how teams approach the proceedings.
The 49ers are feverishly trying to work out a contract agreement with free
agent defensive tackle Dana Stubblefield before the draft.
Stubblefield, the NFL defensive player of the year after registering 15
sacks with the 49ers in 1997, was lured away after that by $36 million of the
Redskins' money. However, he was a bad fit in Washington and totaled only
seven sacks in three seasons there.
The 49ers think Stubblefield, 30, has some football left in him and will
thrive if reunited with Pro Bowler Bryant Young. Just in case a Stubblefield
deal falls though, the 49ers are also negotiating with free agent Brentson
Buckner, who had six sacks for them last year.
The 49ers want to resolve the negotiations prior to the draft so they can
use their draft picks to address other needs such as running back (Deuce
McAllister?), linebacker (Dan Morgan?) and defensive end (Andre Carter?).
"If we don't have Dana Stubblefield or Brentson Buckner on the team prior
to the draft, then we have to consider drafting a defensive tackle," 49ers
coach Steve Mariucci said.
Meanwhile, one potential trade could have a major effect on the Rams and a
huge ripple effect on the entire day of the draft.
The Rams and Chiefs have been talking trade for a month, with Kansas City
trying to dislodge backup quarterback Trent Green from St. Louis. At this
point, the talks are at an impasse and the likelihood of completing a deal is
no better than 50-50, according to Chiefs president Carl Peterson.
The Rams, who already own the Chiefs' second-round pick as compensation for the signing of coach Dick Vermeil, are reportedly asking for a first (12th
overall) and a third in exchange for Green. Peterson has told them that is too
much.
The Chiefs' proposals? Give up the No. 1 and No. 3 but get back the No. 2
they surrendered for Vermeil or exchange picks in the first round (the Rams
have both the 20th and 29th picks) plus give the Rams the third-rounder.
The Chiefs, whose nominal starter at quarterback is Todd Collins, appear to
be desperate, but it is unlikely that anything will happen until they are on
the clock.
If the Rams were to land the Chiefs' first-round pick, it would give them
the 12th, 20th and 29th picks in the first round. Then they would have ample
ammunition to move up as high as the No. 2 pick overall or they could just
sit tight and add some more pieces to their starting-over-from-scratch
defense. The Rams are also hoping to complete a lesser trade with the
Cardinals for veteran cornerback Aeneas Williams.
After the Rams allowed 30 points per game last season, only three defensive
starters -- linebacker London Fletcher, cornerback Dexter McCleon and end
Grant Wistrom -- are expected to be starters this fall. Safety Kim Herring
and linebacker Mark Fields, two free-agent pickups, are also being paid
starter's money. The other six positions are fair game, but the Rams could go
a long way toward filling them if they make the right moves Saturday.
Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal writes a weekly NFC column every Thursday for ESPN.com.
 Send this story to a friend | Most sent stories
| |
ALSO SEE
Complete NFL Draft coverage
|
