With 14 teams still mathematically in contention in the AFC, the final four weeks should be hectic. That's different than the NFC in which the six playoff teams -- three from the NFC South -- are all but set.

It's impossible to figure how the AFC playoff race should sort out. Here's a few clues. The Patriots control their destiny in the AFC East because they have their three division foes visiting them during the final month. The chances are that not more than one team and more likely no AFC squad will finish the season with 11 wins.

	Ricky Williams and the Dolphins are in a dog fight to make the playoffs out of the AFC.

How different is that from the NFC? As many as five and possibly all six playoff teams should have at least 11 wins. That's easy to figure when you know that seven teams are 4-8 or 3-9.

Because of the enhanced interests in the wild AFC list, only a few NFC games creep into big game category during the final four weeks. The NFC teams are playing for seeding. The AFC teams are playing for their playoff lives.

What's interesting is that the next three weeks should do most of the sorting. There aren't many key AFC divisional games during Week 17. The Steelers should have already clinched the AFC North, so their finale against Baltimore shouldn't be the headliner. Only a Chiefs three-game winning streak will make their final Saturday game against the Raiders a crucial game in the AFC West.

The biggest game that week should be the Dolphins and the Patriots, but the Patriots have to win their two games against the Jets and Bills at home to make this a battle for the AFC East title. Figuring that the Dolphins should go 2-1 at the worst in a three-game, 12-day scenario in which they play the Bears, Raiders and Vikings, the Patriots have to win at least two home games to stay with the Dolphins.

Here are the key games down the stretch.

1. Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers, Dec. 8 -- Raiders fans usually arrive early in the parking lots for this annually wild game. The Raiders are still stinging from their earlier loss to the Chargers in overtime, 26-20. Fans in the Black Hole were still stinging from LaDainian Tomlinson's overtime touchdown run. The Chargers know this game is their season. If they let the Raiders get ahead of them, their schedule is too tough to catch them for the AFC West title. The Chargers would have to fight for a wild card if they lose.

2. Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dec. 8 -- Are the Falcons this year's Cinderella Super Bowl team or an exciting wild-card? Michael Vick finds out Sunday. The Bucs defense stayed in their run-control gaps and limited Vick's running in the first meeting on Oct. 6. The Bucs won, 20-6, but the Falcons haven't lost a game since. The Saints are rooting for the Falcons in this one because if the Falcons win out, the Saints can't catch them if they finish 12-4. Because of the regular season sweep of the Bucs, the Saints hold the tie-breaking advantage for the new NFC South title.

3. Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, Dec. 8 -- This is the battle for the new AFC South. The Titans won the first game in Indianapolis, 23-15 on Nov. 3. A Titans victory at home Sunday knots the division at 8-5 and sets up a wild finish. The Colts have the potential edge because they have two home games at the end of the season, but the Titans would hold the tie-breaking advantage if they get the sweep over the Colts. The Titans close with a crucial home game against the Patriots and road trips to Jacksonville and Houston, both winnable games.

4. Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, Dec. 29 -- Unless one of these two teams collapses down the stretch, this game should determine the winner of the AFC East. The Dolphins should come in no worse than 9-6 but if they can beat the Raiders, they could be 10-5. The Patriots lost to the Dolphins in Miami, 26-13, Oct. 6, but they could win the division if they get this game. The Dolphins already have three losses in the division. Figuring that the Patriots are 2-1 in division play and with three division home games remaining, the Patriots aren't going to be in position to worry about tie-breakers if they lose to the Bills and Jets prior to this season finale.

5. Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders, Dec. 22 -- Mike Shanahan still can't believe Rich Gannon picked apart his defense with short passes in a 34-10 Monday night game in Mile High. Broncos fans couldn't believe it either. Most of the seats were empty toward the end of the game, a sight seldom scene in three decades of Broncos success. To make this game important, the Broncos know they have to beat the Jets and Chiefs in the games prior to this one. If they can come to Oakland 9-5, they should be in good shape for making the playoff win or lose in this game. But if they lose one of the next two, the Broncos could be facing elimination, a thought that would only delight the rivals in the silver and black.

6. New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans, Monday night, Dec. 16 -- Unless the Titans lose to the Colts on Sunday, this game will help to determine whether the AFC East or AFC South will have two teams in the playoffs. It's more than likely that two teams will come from the AFC West. After all, the AFC West has a 14-7 record against other teams in the conference. Because this is the last Titans home game, the Titans would gain valuable ammunition in any tie-breaking situation if they can get this win. But the Patriots can't afford to lose it anyway. They are 4-4 in AFC games and can't afford a fifth loss when it comes to tie-breakers. If the Patriots or Titans or both can't win their division, the loser may look back at the outcome of this game as the reason they aren't in the playoffs.

7. Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins, Dec. 15 -- Going across the country after physical games against the Jets and Chargers is going to be tough. This game has major ramifications in playoff seeding. Remember that that Raiders haven't had a week off since Sept. 22. With a veteran roster, they need a bye week in the playoffs to recharge and let a few injuries rest. They had one of the league's toughest closing schedules. A loss by the Raiders would a crucial head-to-head tie-breaking disadvantage if they end up with the same record as the Dolphins and that could cost them a home game and a week off.

8. Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers, Dec. 15-- This is the only crucial NFC game in the final three weeks of the season. It's the only time two of the six NFC playoff teams meet and because both teams are winning their divisions, the Packers and 49ers are playing for playoff seeding. It could mean the difference of playing in the warm or the cold for the Packers. They lost games to New Orleans and Tampa Bay. A loss to the 49ers could put them on the road in the second round of the playoffs and might make them play in the first week.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dec. 23, Monday Night -- This is the only time that the Steelers play a winning team down the stretch. They face two losing teams -- Houston and Carolina -- at home prior to this game. The offense will have two weeks to regain its rhythm under Tommy Maddox before this game. Maddox is coming off neck and concussion problems. Neither team should have worries about being in the playoffs, but the loser in this game could be damaged in their efforts to secure homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

10. Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns, Dec. 15 -- The Browns may be out of the playoff race by next week although they won't be officially eliminated until the final two weeks. If the Colts lose in Tennessee on Sunday, this could be a desperate game for them. A loss to the Browns may cost the Colts a division title and put them in jeopardy of being knocked out of the playoffs. It would put them in position to win their final two games at home against the Giants and Jaguars to make the playoffs. What's interesting is that former Colts quarterback coach Bruce Arians brought the Peyton Manning system to Cleveland for Tim Couch, so each team knows each other's offense.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.