We thought it would be a quiet weekend.

Monday's official release of the BCS Standings was supposed to look much like last week's projections, but the Cinderella story of the year ended on Friday, and one of the primary title contenders took its first loss on Saturday.

Fresno State and Oregon owned home winning streaks of 17 and 23 games, respectively, but it was not enough to help them overcome an inspired foe. You just never know what might happen on a football field, which is why they play the games. Keep that in mind as we start to take a look at the field of contenders for the national championship.

Remember that the BCS Standings are what they are -- rankings based only on games that have already been played. We must wait through another month and a half of upsets and close calls before the title game participants are officially determined.

Enjoy the speculation, but don't make reservations for Pasadena based on what you see in October. There is a very long way to go.

Stock up: Miami
It's not fair to say the Hurricanes are sitting comfortably after the events of this past Friday and Saturday, but there were certainly a few things that went their way. For starters, a couple of Miami opponents finally won games that they could have lost. Penn State made a miraculous comeback to get its first victory of the season, and Rutgers won what was considered to be a toss-up game. In all, the Canes' past opposition went 3-1 against I-A competition, which is much better than it had been faring.

The Fresno State loss also had a potential benefit to Miami because the Bulldogs held a higher ranking in a couple of the computers that don't consider margin of victory. It's difficult to say whether Fresno might have finished ahead of them in those computers, but now the Hurricanes won't have to worry about that possibility.

The biggest result of the weekend, though, probably came from the northwest corner of the country, where Oregon was upset by Stanford. The possible disaster scenario for Miami is having an undefeated team emerge from both the Big 12 and the Pac-10, which is slightly less likely after the Ducks' loss. Now, the Hurricanes just need to win out and see one loss given to either UCLA or the winner of this weekend's Oklahoma-Nebraska game. That's all it will take to make them a lock for the Rose Bowl.

Stock down: UCLA
The Bruins continue to play impressive football, but the schedule finally caught up with them on Saturday. Simply taking the field against 0-5 Cal weakened their opponents' record enough to drop them to No. 3 in the BCS Standings. Their previous opposition also went 2-3 over the weekend, which further affected their schedule strength. UCLA should have no long-term fears about this part of the formula, however. Their next three opponents are a combined 17-2.

The big blow within the BCS picture came from Oregon's loss. On the surface, it was just one UCLA opponent beating another, but in reality, the wrong one fell. Assuming undefeated teams also come out of the Big East and Big 12, UCLA still had a very good chance to finish in the top two of the BCS with a win over a 10-1 Oregon. Now, they should probably change that hope to a 10-1 Washington State.

There remains a chance that several Pac-10 teams could finish in the top 15 and each earn small bonus points for the Bruins, but the nightmare is that they will knock one another off several times and deprive UCLA of any extra benefit for quality wins. Unless Miami suffers a similar fate from Virginia Tech, these points would probably be necessary to help UCLA overcome their poll deficit to the Hurricanes.

Under the radar
It is inevitable that people will look at the first release of the BCS Standings and wonder what will happen if everyone wins out. The more likely scenario, however, is that almost everyone will lose. Of the six teams that have initially been ranked in the top two of the standings in its first three years, only two have finished the season in one of those spots. Two of the three seasons have given us a one-loss team in the title game.

Top-Two Teams in the BCS Standings



Initial Release			Final Results
1998	UCLA and Ohio St.	Tennessee and Florida St.
1999	Florida St. and Penn St.Florida St. and Virginia Tech
2000	Nebraska and Oklahoma	Oklahoma and Florida St.

Fresno State's loss virtually guarantees that the rich will get richer. The approximately $12 million that the Bulldogs and the WAC might have gotten from a major bowl will now likely end up in the hands of whichever major conference snags that second at-large spot.

Many people may soon be asking whether BYU could reach the top 6 of the BCS and assume the role of Fresno State. It is highly unlikely. The Cougars have one of the weaker schedules in the nation, which means they would need to climb very near the top of the polls to offset that. It's not going to happen.

If the season ended today...

BCS Standings
Through Games of Oct. 20

1. Oklahoma 3.06
2. Nebraska 6.40
3. UCLA 8.34
4. Miami 12.01
5. Virginia Tech 13.88
6. Texas 15.35
7. Michigan 15.91
8. Maryland 21.29
9. Tennessee 22.07
10. Washington St. 23.05

This is the 19th week the BCS Standings have come out with the same team ranked No. 1 in both polls; it is the first time that team has not been ranked in the BCS top two.

Congratulations to Maryland and Washington State, which are making their first appearance in the BCS Standings.

BCS Game of the Week: Oklahoma at Nebraska
Last season, these teams met in the first regular-season 1 vs. 2 matchup in BCS history. Now, it appears they will meet again in the second such battle.

A year ago, the Sooners dominated the Huskers like few teams have in the past 30 seasons, and the win gave them a No. 1 ranking they would not relinquish. Once again, the winner of this game will hold an enviable position in the national championship race. There is almost no chance either of these teams could go undefeated and not reach the Rose Bowl, but the road to do so will be extremely difficult.

Oklahoma still has a trip to Texas Tech, and Nebraska must travel to Colorado to end the regular season. And if this weekend's winner survives that test, there is still a strong possibility that the rivalry will be renewed on Dec. 1 for the Big 12 Championship.

Brad Edwards is a college football researcher for ESPN. Inside the BCS appears weekly.