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Wednesday, August 29
Updated: August 30, 12:06 PM ET
 
This record may never be broken

By Brad Edwards
Special to ESPN.com

Records are made to be broken.

It's an easy concept to believe after all the sports world has witnessed in the last six years.

In 1995, Cal Ripken broke the record for consecutive major league games played. In 1998, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa both surpassed the standard for home runs in a season. Just three years later, Barry Bonds is threatening to top McGwire's total.

Also in '98, Ricky Williams ran into the college football record book by setting the career rushing mark -- only to see his record fall to Ron Dayne the following season.

So, when Paul "Bear" Bryant's record for major college football coaching victories falls to Joe Paterno this season, many fans will give it only an obligatory acknowledgement. That's because Bobby Bowden enters the year just seven wins behind Paterno.

This sets up a race that may be contested for several more years, or it could just end by default with the retirement of one coach. But as you watch Paterno and Bowden finish their careers, toss recent history out the window and appreciate the moments.

One of these men will soon own a record that will likely never be broken.

The math
Paterno now sits at 322 wins; Bowden has 315. If either man coaches two more seasons, he should reach at least 330 victories. It's conceivable that one of them might not stop coaching until he reaches 350.

But for argument's sake, let's conservatively estimate the new record at 330 wins. To equal it would require 10 wins per season over 33 years as a head coach or to coach for more than 35 years (as both Paterno and Bowden have).

Over the last decade, Bowden and Steve Spurrier have caused us to lose perspective on the difficulty of averaging 10 wins a year. The longest this pace has ever been sustained was by Tom Osborne, who coached 25 seasons before retiring with 255 victories at the age of 60.

It is also extremely difficult to get a head-coaching job before 30 years of age, so don't count on anyone reaching 330 wins before turning 65. The youngest coach in Division I-A is currently Greg Schiano of Rutgers, who is making his debut this season at the age of 35.

Impossible Chase?
It seems like there are plenty of coaches who could catch Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden. Uh, look again. Here's a look at how old a few coaches would be when they reached 330 if they averaged 10 wins a season every year.
Coach Wins Age at 330
Lou Holtz 224 75
Jackie Sherrill 172 73
Steve Spurrier 132 76
Rick Neuheisel 51 68

The next-closest active coaches to Paterno and Bowden are Lou Holtz (224 wins) and Jackie Sherrill (172). At the aforementioned pace of 10 per season, Holtz would need to coach until the age of 75 to reach 330 wins, and Sherrill would get there at age 73.

Before you start thinking this might be possible, ponder the following for a moment: in their entire football histories, South Carolina and Mississippi State have a grand total of three 10-win seasons between them.

What about Spurrier, you ask? Well, most people forget that he played in the NFL and then coached in the USFL before starting at Duke. Even at his current Florida pace, the head coach wouldn't reach the 300-win plateau until the age of 73.

The leading candidate right now is probably Rick Neuheisel, who started young at a major program and won 51 games before his 40th birthday. If he picks up his pace just slightly, he could reach that range of 330 victories before the age of 70.

The factors
But there are plenty of stumbling blocks out there for young, successful coaches. And, as strange as this may sound, the biggest obstacle to their long-term productivity might be money -- as in too much of it.

Rick Neuheisel
Rick Neuheisel is one of the few who could make a run at 330 wins.
Neuheisel arrived at Washington -- just 38 years young -- with an annual salary estimated at one million dollars. He has since led the Huskies to a Rose Bowl and a top-five national ranking, which sent his stock soaring even higher. Considering the contracts signed by other coaches in the last two years, Neuheisel may be in line for a considerable raise in the very near future.

Approximately 20 Division I-A coaches make one million dollars or more per season -- many of whom received those contracts with a limited track record. Imagine what schools will be offering a coach who can sustain great success over even a 10-year period.

Paterno and Bowden didn't see the monetary payoff for their efforts until the latter stages of their careers. A modern-day coach, however, would be financially set for life at the age of 50 if he was able to produce a record like Paterno's 141-31-1 over his first 15 seasons.

The question is this: with that kind of cash in your bank account, what's the motivation to coach into your late 60s? Certainly, many coaches in the past have stuck around for their love of the game. But maybe the game isn't as easy to love as it once was.

The pressures on a coach are now at an all-time high. Big-time salaries invite big-time scrutiny. His decisions are not only second-guessed by the media but also in public forums on the Internet. Off-field transgressions of players are more publicized than ever. Coaching is still about winning, but in this new century, it is also about public image.

So, in an age when you can win a conference championship one year and then hear fans call for your job halfway through the next season, why would you keep going if you can afford to quit while you're still ahead?

If you could sign a five-year contract but get bought out for practically nothing after one sub-par season, why would you not jump at a similar offer from the NFL, where the money is guaranteed?

Taking everything into consideration -- all the ways in which college football has changed for a head coach -- it would be almost surprising to see someone even approach 300 wins again. Paterno and Bowden should be safe forever in the top two spots.

The loophole
But there is one caveat. For the first half of Bryant's coaching career, a regular season consisted of 10 games. That eventually increased to 11, and we have since seen the addition of August "Classics" as well as conference championship games. There are also twice as many bowl games as there used to be.

Starting next year, the NCAA has opened the door for all teams to play a 12-game regular season. And don't forget about the possibility that one day, just perhaps, we might finally see a playoff in college football.

If teams ever start routinely playing 14 or 15 games a year, there is, of course, a much better chance that a coach could average 11 or even 12 wins per season. Only at that point will the new record be within reach.

But for now, just admire and enjoy both Paterno and Bowden. It's a rare chance to watch two legends come down the home stretch of their race for history.





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