The Shoe is on the other foot.

After having its conference championship hopes undone by Ohio State last year, Michigan comes to the Buckeyes' famed Horseshoe Saturday intent on paying back the Bucks.

The stakes are even higher than last year, when Michigan merely lost a chance to grab another Big Ten title and a BCS bowl bid. This weekend, Ohio State can lock up a berth in the national championship game and move within one win of its first national championship since 1968.

Independents Day

The good news for Notre Dame is that has a good chance of landing a BCS at-large berth even if it splits its two remaining games. ND is a heavy favorite against Rutgers this week, but figures to be the underdog at Southern California on Nov. 30. The Irish are right to expect that their bye week should recharge a team that struggled against Navy after losing to Boston College. The bad news is that USC is playing its best football in years. The Trojans' only losses came early in the year, to a pair of quality opponents on the road, Kansas State and Washington State. Notre Dame edged closer to a guaranteed Bowl Championship Series at-large berth thanks to another upset. The Irish -- who are assured a BCS bid if they finish among the top six in the BCS standings -- moved up to sixth this week, courtesy of Texas Tech's shocker over Texas. Notre Dame, which is eligible to play in a BCS bowl if it remains in the top 12 of the BCS standings, already is being mentioned as a candidate for the Orange Bowl. Because it will lose its Big-East tie-in champion, Miami, to the Fiesta Bowl if the Hurricanes win out, the Orange could be looking for a team. And the Irish's drawing power, particularly in this rejuvenating season, is an attractive option. -- Herb Gould

There are a lot of reasons to think Michigan can win. The first is history. If Michigan defeats Ohio State, it will be the fourth time in the last 10 years that the Wolverines have spoiled an unbeaten season for the Buckeyes. Michigan did it in Ann Arbor in 1993 and 1995, and in Columbus in 1996.

Another reason is current events. Their 23-16 overtime victory at Illinois Saturday was another in a series of narrow escapes for the Buckeyes, who needed a late touchdown to win 10-6 at Purdue before their Illinois trip.

Ohio State has won its five road games by a total of 31 points, and it hasn't been safe at home, either. In a 13-7 victory over Penn State, the Buckeyes scored their only touchdown on an interception return by two-way standout Chris Gamble, who plays cornerback and wide receiver.

Another reason for concern is the lingering shoulder problem of Maurice Clarett, the freshman runner who ran for 100 yards in six of his first seven games. Since suffering a painful stinger at Wisconsin, Clarett has missed two of four games and gained only 91 yards in the two games in which he appeared.

"The thing I've learned about these injuries is you really don't know until you go into the game, and I'm sure the same will hold true this week," said Ohio State coach Jim Tressel, who hopes to have a functioning Clarett for Michigan. The Buckeyes' offense needs him. Ohio State has scored more than 19 points in regulation only once in its last five games.

The Wolverines are unsympathetic, of course.

Ironically, a Michigan victory figures to drop the Wolverines in the Big Ten bowl pecking order. If Ohio State beats the Wolverines, it locks up a slot in the national-championship Fiesta Bowl and Iowa is in the hunt for an at-large BCS berth in the Rose Bowl, which would open the Capital One (former Citrus) Bowl for Michigan. If Ohio State loses to Michigan, Iowa goes to the Rose Bowl as the Big Ten champion, and the Buckeyes probably wind up in the Capital One, which leaves Michigan in the Outback Bowl.

At Michigan, though, beating Ohio State is more important than bowl implications. It can make the Wolverines' season.

"We're not trying to ruin anything for them," Michigan TE Bennie Joppru said politely. "We're trying to have a great year for ourselves."

Michigan cornerback Marlin Jackson put it bluntly, though, when he said, "We could spoil their whole season."

Try telling the Buckeyes something they don't know.

"For all we've done this year, all of it means nothing if we don't win this game," Ohio State center Alex Stepanovich said.

It all adds up to an over-the-top atmosphere for a game that would be momentous in the great states of Ohio and Michigan even if these teams were both 1-10.

"College football doesn't get any bigger than this," Buckeyes offensive tackle Shane Olivea said. "This is the granddaddy of them all. This is it. There's not a college football game in the country that's bigger than this one."

From Miami, which is wondering who's going to join it in the Fiesta Bowl, to Pullman, Wash. -- home of Washington State, which stands to move into the national championship game if Ohio State falters -- there will be more than few eyes on the Buckeyes when they take on their archrivals from Michigan.

Around the Big Ten

Illinois
Illinois came close in its bid to upset unbeaten Ohio State, but fell short 23-16 in overtime when two catches that would have sent the game into a second overtime were disallowed. On the first, Aaron Moorehead was ruled out of bounds with his catch. On the second, officials ruled Walter Young was still bobbling the ball when he went of bounds in the end zone. ... The defeat ended Illinois' dream of overcoming a 1-5 start and earning a bowl bid. "This really hurts. If we play like this all year, we're having a heck of a season," said linebacker Joe Bevis. "That [slow start] is coming back to bite us on the butt now."

Indiana
Indiana has given up 200 points in its last four games, including Saturday's 58-25 loss to Penn State. But the Hoosiers will head to Purdue, where they have a chance to knock the Boilermakers out of a bowl berth and bring home the Old Oaken Bucket, with their heads held high. "I haven't seen anyone (quit)," said first-year coach Gerry DiNardo. "If somebody wouldn't play hard, I would address it. I haven't seen anyone just totally give up. If they would, I would throw them off the team, and they know that. We've talked about that." Indiana snapped a four-game losing streak against its instate rivals last season, winning 13-7.

Iowa
The Hawkeyes' 45-21 victory at Minnesota gave them an 8-0 record in Big Ten play, their first perfect season in the conference since 1922. Iowa, which has completed its season, now will wait to see its bowl destination. If Ohio State loses to Michigan, Iowa will make its first Rose Bowl trip since 1990. The Hawkeyes also could wind up in the Rose Bowl if Ohio State wins and goes to the Fiesta Bowl. If they aren't given a BCS at-large bid to Pasadena, the Capital One (former Citrus) Bowl looms. "I have no idea what's going to happen, and I don't care," Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz said. "It's going to be hard to knock a smile off my face for a while."

Michigan
The Wolverines face a difficult task at unbeaten Ohio State this week. But they have history on their side. In the last 10 years, they have knocked off an undefeated Ohio State three times, in 1993, 1995 and 1996. And the '96 game was in Columbus. ... Michigan's running game is on a roll as it heads to Ohio State. Chris Perry ran for a career-high 175 yards in Saturday's 21-14 victory over Wisconsin, giving Michigan a 100-yard rusher in each of its last three games. Fullback B.J. Askew had 126 yards against Minnesota and 149 yards against Michigan State.

Michigan State
In their second game under interim coach Morris Watts, the Spartans gave another strong offensive effort. But defensive breakdowns left them with a 45-42 loss. The defeated eliminated Michigan State (4-7, 2-5) from bowl consideration. ... The Spartans, who won their first game under Watts at Indiana, 56-21, have scored 98 points in two games, a 49-point average, since Bobby Williams was fired. They scored 89 points, a 14.8 average, in their six losses under Williams.

Minnesota
More than the Paul Bunyan Axe will be at stake when the Gophers finish their season at Wisconsin, which needs a win to become bowl-eligible. Minnesota, which has lost three straight, is looking for a victory to bolster its bowl credentials. The Gophers are bowl-bound, but a win would move them up the bowl pecking order. The Alamo, Sun, Music City and Motor City bowls shape up as Minnesota's most likely destinations. ... Running back Marion Barber III will take a medical redshirt. Barber, who had been expected to be an important player, made only two brief early-season appearances due to a training-camp hamstring injury.

Northwestern
Northwestern blew out its Saturday opponent, Illinois, 61-23 in 2000, the last time the Illini came to Evanston. That was its only victory in the last four meetings. The Wildcats (3-8) need a victory against Illinois to avoid their third three-win season in five years. The Wildcats, who were 4-7 last year, have had only one winning season since 1996. They were 8-4 in 2000. ... The Northwestern defense ranks 115th out of 117 Division I-A schools in the nation in total yards allowed (503.3 a game). The 'Cats' offense is 66th (375.4 yards a game).

Ohio State
Critics may question the way they're winning, but there's no question the Buckeyes are headed for the national championship game if they defeat archrival Michigan Saturday. Ohio State survived another scare, winning at Illinois 23-17 in overtime one week after winning 10-6 at Purdue on a late touchdown. Ohio State is stressing the positives of its 12-0 record, rather its season of narrow escapes. "It's the ideal situation to be in when you come to Ohio State," linebacker Matt Wilhelm said. "We've put ourselves in position to win the national championship. Now it's time to put it all on the line against Michigan."

Penn State
Larry Johnson rushed for 327 yards to lead a 58-25 victory at Indiana, the third time this season he has broken Penn State's single-game rushing record. Johnson, who ran for 257 vs. Northwestern and 279 vs. Illinois, can become the fourth Division I-A player to rush for 2,000 yards in a season with another big game. He needs 264 yards against Michigan State, which gave up 307 rushing yards to Purdue. Johnson, who had 337 yards last fall in Penn State's clumsy three-running-back system, also became Penn State' single-season rushing leader. His 1,736 yards surpasses Lydell Mitchell's 1,567 yards in 1971.

Purdue
The Boilermakers' victory in a 45-42 shootout at Michigan State keeps them in the hunt for a sixth straight bowl trip. The victory was highlighted by a 40-yard game-winning touchdown from Kyle Orton to John Standeford with 3:18 left. Orton made the throw on fourth-and-eight. It was his first play in place of the injured Brandon Kirsch. Purdue (5-6, 3-4) outgained Michigan State 555-320 and controlled the ball for nearly 40 minutes, but needed to rally after losing the ball times on turnovers, including a pair of interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. ... Purdue's six losses have come by a total of 26 points, including three games when the defense couldn't stop opponents in the final two minutes.

Wisconsin
The Badgers (6-6), who have lost six of seven since a 5-0 start, have one more chance to sneak into a bowl bid, against Minnesota in Camp Randall Stadium Saturday. In its 21-14 loss at Michigan, Wisconsin trailed 14-0 less then five minutes into the game, but couldn't find a way to win despite buckling down and giving itself a chance. ... Anthony Davis, who missed a 37-20 loss to Illinois after being stabbed in the left thigh in a domestic dispute, came back well, rushing for 154 yards on 26 carries against Michigan's highly regarded rushing defense.

Around the Independents
Connecticut improved to 5-6 with a 38-0 rout of Navy. Freshman running back Terry Caulley led the way with 157 yards, including two touchdowns and became the first UConn freshman to rush for 1,000 yards since Tory Taylor in 1995. The victory was the first in six meetings with Navy. The Huskies, who held Navy to a school-record three first downs, finish their season at Iowa State Saturday. ... Navy failed to build on its surprising 30-23 near-upset of Notre Dame, looking over-matched in a 38-0 loss to Connecticut. First-year coach Paul Johnson said a letdown was not the problem, and took responsibility for a disappointing effort in which the Midshipmen were outgained 509-82. "I don't have any answers. I think our guys were ready to play. We've got a lot of young players, but that not an excuse. We have to try and do a better job of coaching," Johnson said. "They clearly couldn't do what we asked them to do, so we have to try and find something they can do." ... Notre Dame coach Tyrone Willingham's expressions of respect for Rutgers will sound hollow, but it's understandable that a team that has lost to Boston College and barely beaten Navy in its last two games is treading lightly. "They have played their best football against the best teams, and they have played some of the better teams in the country," Willingham said, referring particularly to the 17-14 fourth-quarter lead Rutgers held before losing 42-17 to Miami. "So it is a frightening thought that a team that has the skill they have will play their best game against us this Saturday." . . . This is the fourth meeting between the schools. The Irish have won the first three meetings by a combined margin of 155-17, including a 45-17 victory in 2000. ... South Florida (8-2) feels its 29-7 victory over Bowling Green -- which had been unbeaten and ranked in top 25, but now has lost its last two games -- will bolster its bowl prospects. The victory was South Florida's 19th straight at home, the nation's second longest home streak. South Florida's bowl prospects depend on whether some major conferences qualify enough teams to fill their bowl tie-in commitments. ... Troy State lost 19-16 in overtime to Utah State when it failed to build on a 16-7 halftime lead. Utah State piled up 326 of its 389 yards in the second in an uncharacteristic letdown by the Trojans' defense. It was first time in 38 games that Troy State (4-8) did not win when it led in the fourth quarter. The defeat left coach Larry Blakeney with his worst record in 12 years as the Trojans' coach. The loss was Troy State's first at home in 18 games, but only win came against a Division I-A team. ... Utah State scored on the final play of regulation and won in overtime for the second time this season, winning at Troy State 19-16 on a rainy, muddy day. The Aggies won despite making six turnovers, having a punt blocked and missing on three fourth-down conversions. Tight end Chris Cooley caught a career-high seven passes for 134 yards. Utah State has an open date before finishing its season at Middle Tennessee on Nov. 30.

Herb Gould covers college football for the Chicago Sun-Times.