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Thursday, January 4, 2001
At this point, it's all about expectations




It's hard to believe the number of fans who are already clamoring for "Bracketology." Regular readers know this feature as the time we begin projecting the NCAA Tournament field.

While it may be true that my three favorite letters are R-P-I, trust me when I say it is way too soon to think about March. For instance, Toledo holds the No. 1 ranking in the current RPI Report (published by Collegiate Basketball News, it is the only true RPI data available to the public).

Stat of the Week
It is so easy to wax nostalgic at holiday time, when every conversation is legally required to include at least one mention of the good ol' days. Well, in college basketball's good ol' days, there was this dirty trick known as the two-point basket.

How quickly these teams forget:

Fewest 2-point FGs
  • 5: Wisconsin
    (at Temple, Dec. 14)
  • 5: Princeton
    (at Monmouth, Nov. 25)
  • 6: SE Louisiana
    (at Mississippi, Dec. 13)
  • 6: Wisconsin-Milwaukee
    (at Illinois, Dec. 6)
  • 6: Citadel
    (at William & Mary, Dec. 2)
  • 6: Air Force
    (vs. Houston, Nov. 16)
  • 7: Wisconsin-Milwaukee
    (at Wisconsin, Dec. 16)
  • 7: BYU
    (vs. Southern Utah, Dec. 14)

    Even more amazing than these incredibly low numbers is that three of the teams listed here (Wisconsin, Air Force, and BYU) actually won the game.
  • Nothing against the Rockets, who may win the Mid-American Conference and, or secure an at-large spot in the NCAA bracket, but I don't know anyone who believes Toledo will be an RPI top 10 team two months from now. As we like to remind people, December RPI numbers are like April batting averages. They are for amusement only.

    But thanks for asking. You can look for the first ESPN.com bracket projections in mid- to late-January.

    Now, just because we cannot intelligently project the NCAA field doesn't mean we can't analyze the early-season performances of individual teams. My very unscientific analysis suggests the following distinctions so far this season:

    BIGGEST OVERACHIEVER
    Wake Forest.
    BIGGEST UNDERACHIEVER
    Massachusetts.

    You may have your own candidate(s) in each category, but it is hard to argue against either of these teams as strong nominees. Let's start with Wake.

    The Demon Deacons were a losing team (7-9) in their own conference last year. And, even though that conference was named the ACC, it sent a very un-ACC-like three teams to the NCAAs.

    Wake did rebound to win the NIT, and the return of five starters was cause for justifiable optimism this season. But not even Billy Packer would have forecast an 8-0 start (with wins over Michigan, Kansas and Georgia) and a No. 6 national ranking.

    While much of Wake Forest's improvement has been linked to the move of Robert O'Kelley away from the point guard position, our research uncovered more shifts in team performance than could be attributed to any single player. Take a look at Wake's comparative stats:

    Wake Forest 1999-2000 2000-2001
    Points Per Game 69.8 80.4
    Field Goal Percentage 43.4 52.4
    Field Goal Defense 40.6 35.1
    3-Point Shooting 30.9 36.9
    3-Point Defense 32.0 25.7
    FT Percentage 67.4 72.0
    Rebound Margin Plus-6 Plus-5.9
    Assists Per Game 13.3 18.5
    Turnover Margin Minus-0.5 Plus-4.5
    Steals Per Game 6.1 9.0
    Blocks Per Game 4.2 6.1

    Unlike Wake Forest, Massachusetts lost two starters (forwards Chris Kirkland and Mike Babul) from last season. But an infusion of young talent was supposed to lift the Minutemen back to the NCAAs after a two-year absence. That and the presence of fifth-year senior guard Monty Mack had many experts suggesting UMass might dethrone Temple in the Atlantic 10.

    Well, the Minutemen are 2-7 and circling the wagons around embattled coach Bruiser Flint. A team that was barely above average last winter has taken more hits this year than the Electoral College.

    Numbers don't lie:

    UMass 1999-2000 2000-2001
    Points Per Game 68.6 65.9
    Field Goal Percentage 42.9 39.8
    Field Goal Defense 41.2 43.4
    3-Point Shooting 33.9 30.4
    FT Percentage 65.0 63.3
    Rebound Margin Minus-2.6 Minus-4.0
    Turnover Margin Plus-2.4 Minus-0.8

    So much for "Refuse to Lose."

    Right margin, wrong score
    Although complete data is not yet available from the NCAA, team scoring appears to be up during the 2000-01 campaign. Certainly the number of truly low-scoring games continues to drop.

    And then came Saturday: Michigan State 46, Kentucky 45.

    Most observers were highly critical of this contest. It reminded some of the Spartans' 53-41 victory over Wisconsin in last year's Final Four. Any minute now, someone will probably run the tape of the infamous North Carolina-Virginia ACC title game. That snooze-fest led to the shot clock, increased calls for three-point shooting and other wacky proposals.

    Everything except Prop 48 was seemingly blamed on that one game.

    Let's hope cooler heads prevail this time. Yes, Michigan State posted the second-lowest winning score of the season. Yes, the combined 91 points were fourth-lowest of the year. No, the Hall of Fame in Springfield isn't likely to play this game on a continuous loop in its lobby.

    But nobody did anything wrong. The ball just didn't go in the basket. Two teams known for differing (but very effective) defensive styles each forced the other into sub-40 percent shooting. Get over it.

    State's Charlie Bell had a horrible shooting day, making just 1 of 11 shots from the field and 1 of 7 from behind the 3-point arc. But he produced eight assists, seven rebounds and two steals against only one turnover. In a low-scoring game, that amounts to a winning player.

    Each team had 16 assists on its 18 field goals, an Assist-to-FG ratio of nearly .900 (.888). These are among the top single-game figures of the year and represent smart team basketball under trying conditions.

    In other words, only really good teams would be able to post such numbers when the all isn't dropping.

    We already knew Michigan State was really good. It says here that Kentucky is, too.

    Since we're on the subject, what are the lowest- and highest-scoring games of the year? This is especially timely considering that the weekend past produced two of the leaders in each category.

    Lowest Scoring Games Highest Scoring Games
    87: Columbia at Lehigh, Dec. 11
    213: Howard at Georgetown, Dec. 16
    90: Rutgers at Princeton, Dec. 14 213: N. Texas at Texas A&M-C.C., Dec. 2
    91: Kentucky at Michigan State, Dec. 16 213: VCU at Texas A&M, Dec. 2
    94: Arkansas-L.R. at Marquette, Dec. 9 213: Brown at Wagner, Nov. 17
    94: William & Mary at VaTech, Nov. 20 208: TCU vs. Minnesota, Nov. 25
    95: Jacksonville at High Point, Dec. 9 202: TCU vs. Siena, Nov. 24

    Perfect ... and imperfect performances
    It's been a while since we looked at individual player box score lines. Here are my nominees for the top 10 single-game performances of December:

  • Theron Smith, Ball State (vs. Texas Tech, Dec. 8):
    16-26 FG, 4-5 3PT, 4-4 FT, 12 REB, 3 STL, 1 AST, 40 PTS, 37 MIN.

  • Jason Williams, Duke (at Temple, Dec. 2):
    10-12 FG, 8-10 3PT, 2-2 FT, 3 AST, 2 REB, 30 PTS, 34 MIN

  • Todd Billet, Rutgers (vs. James Madison, Dec. 2):
    11-14 FG, 5-8 3PT, 10-11 FT, 3 AST, 2 REB, 37 PTS, 40 MIN

  • Ron Williamson, Howard (at Georgetown, Dec. 16):
    13-22 FG, 11-17 3PT, 4-6 FT, 4 REB, 4 AST, 2 STL, 41 PTS, 38 MIN

  • Adam Fellers, Campbell (vs. Jacksonville State-OT, Dec. 4):
    11-20 FG, 6-13 3PT, 7-8 FT, 4 AST, 3 STL, 35 PTS, 43 MIN

  • Eddie Griffin, Seton Hall (vs. Norfolk State, Dec. 4):
    8-12 FG, 5-6 FT, 12 REB, 10 BLK, 1 AST, 21 PTS, 27 MIN

  • Joe Crispin, Penn State (vs. Pitt, Dec. 6):
    13-22 FG, 7-9 3PT, 3-5 FT, 5 AST, 3 STL 1 PF, 36 PTS, 34 MIN

  • Kevin Houston, St. Bonaventure (vs. Siena, Dec. 13):
    8-15 FG, 4-7 3PT, 12-13 FT, 8 REB, 1 STL, 0 TO, 32 PTS, 29 MIN

  • Darius Rice, Miami (vs. Central Florida, Dec. 9):
    11-19 FG, 6-9 3PT, 7-8 FT, 4 REB, 1 AST, 35 PTS, 32 MIN

  • Leon Brisport, Stony Brook (at Columbia, Dec. 9):
    7-10 FG, 21-25 FT, 13 REB, 35 PTS, 38 MIN

    These five guys, meanwhile, should expect some coal in their stockings:

  • Rasual Butler, La Salle (vs. Seton Hall, Dec. 2):
    5-29 FG, 2-12 3PT, 1-2 FT, 14 REB, 4 TO, 3 PF, 2 AST, 13 PTS, 37 MIN

  • Kevin Braswell, Georgetown (at Louisville, Dec. 5):
    1-11 FG, 0-3 3PT, 4-7 FT, 9 AST, 5 PF, 4 STL, 3 TO, 6 PTS, 31 MIN

  • Tony Akins, Georgia Tech (vs. Georgia, Dec. 7):
    1-12 FG, 0-7 3PT, 0-0 FT, 6 AST, 2 PTS, 26 MIN

  • Monte Mack, UMass (vs. Connecticut, Dec. 12):
    0-9 FG, 0-6 3PT, 3-4 FT, 2 AST, 1 TO, 3 PTS, 29 MIN

  • Imari Sawyer, DePaul (vs. Kansas, Dec. 12):
    4-17 FG, 2-9 3PT, 4-7 FT, 8 AST, 5 TO, 14 PTS, 40 MIN

    Box Score Banter
    On Friday, check out the full "Box Score Banter" for more E-mails and responses. Remember, it's the part of this column when your E-mail thoughts, insights, suggestions, etc. have a forum (jlunardi@home.com). It's also your chance to see your name in cyberspace. Some of the early-season responses have been priceless:

    "Great column! Get ready to hold your nose while I tell you about the Dec. 9 game between William & Mary and my alma mater, American U. W&M shot 28 percent, while AU shot 32 percent.

    Some of the outstanding performances that night included Tom Strobehn 0-4, Sherman Rivers 0-12, Jernavis Draughn 0-5, Ronald Hearns 0-8, and Brian Williams 0-3. Those five guys were a combined 0-for-32!

    By the way, American won, 54-50. As a team, AU is shooting 55 percent from the foul line. Is anyone doing worse?"
    -- Tom Klitus

    Through eight games now, the Purple Eagles are still hovering at 55.3 percent from the line. We've not found anyone lower ... yet!

    Joe Lunardi is a regular in-season contributor for ESPN.com. He is also contributing editor of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook, www.collegebaskets.com. Write to Joe at jlunardi@home.com.


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