ESPN.com - ncb - Unlocking the NCAA field

Way back on Jan. 4, which seems like 10 years ago -- especially in Winston-Salem, I'm guessing -- we had a little fun in this space with ESPN.com colleague Andy Katz. Andy had listed in his excellent "Weekly Word" column the 33 locks to this year's NCAA Tournament.

I countered that my definition of "lock" must be different than his, because it's just not possible in early January to have that many teams with a dead-certain, at-large profile. This being me, of course, I couldn't stop there. I had to list a handful (plus one) of teams who might very well be "unlocked" come tournament time.

After becoming Public Enemy No. 1 in all six locations (a personal, single-day record!), I vowed to re-visit the list later in the season and admit the error of my ways. This after guaranteeing that at least one of the Not-So-Special Six would miss the NCAA Tournament entirely.

Well, I was indeed wrong. I should have written that AT LEAST HALF of the list would miss the field! Here are the six:

Virginia: The Cavaliers are going to the Tournament, but they were not a lock then and they are not one today. My premise at the time was I expected UVa to struggle to finish above .500 in the ACC and that, by definition, would make them a bubble team. Monumental win over Duke notwithstanding, it took a buzzer-beater to defeat a bad Florida State team on Saturday and avoid falling to 6-7 in the league. UVa could also lose two of its final three (North Carolina and at Maryland), as well as an ACC quarterfinal game. That would make them 8-9 in ACC games, 19-9 overall, with an RPI in the 40s. Lock? You decide.

Dayton: The Flyers' "big" wins at the time -- Connecticut and Maryland -- weren't very big then, and they are even less so now. Dayton is four games off the pace in the Atlantic 10 and still fighting for a conference tournament bye. No fans came after me like the great Dayton fans, but they have been quiet lately. The opportunity for major homecourt wins remains (St. Joseph's and Xavier), but the opportunity for an at-large bid does not.

UConn: To their credit, the Huskies are crawling back into the at-large picture, but you'd have to characterize their season as a disappointment. With the middle of the Big East a giant mess -- and with UConn still to play several key "swing" games -- an at-large bid is possible. But a "lock?" Then? Now? Please. The Huskies can't hide being 1-6 outside their home state.

Georgetown: Everyone knows what I think about the polls. What I think of Georgetown should be crystal clear after this statement: Connecticut has a better chance for an at-large bid than do the Hoyas. Other than the College of Charleston, the likely automatic qualifier from the Southern Conference, Georgetown has posted exactly ZERO wins over currently projected NCAA teams. The Hoyas have one -- that's O-N-E -- victory over an RPI Top 50 team overall (Minnesota, No. 42). And that non-conference schedule (No. 297) is really going to impress the Selection Committee.

DePaul: Andy's only worse pick than the Blue Demons was Seton Hall. At least DePaul is going to play in its conference tournament (because every team in Conference USA does). Seton Hall isn't even a "lock" for that!

Alabama: 'Bama is, in fact, a lock (at least according to nearly all criteria I take seriously). Congratulations, Crimson Tide.

OK, now it's time to sound like Al Gore (or at least the guy who plays him on "Saturday Night Live"). If Alabama is a "Lunardi Lock" -- which means you can take 'Bama to the bank -- what other teams are really, truly in the Lock Box?

The following teams are hereby GUARANTEED to be in the NCAA field. If any of them miss, I will wear their respective sweatshirts on the beach for an entire day this July (with digital photographs to appear hear accordingly):

Atlantic 10: St. Joseph's. The surprising Hawks are now two games ahead of the field in the loss column and will have to go to great lengths to miss out on a No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. Nobody in the league has an overwhelming at-large profile, but the Hawks come closest.

ACC: North Carolina and Duke. Don't give me Virginia (see above), and certainly don't give me Maryland. The Terps are 0-5 against RPI Top 25 opposition and are No. 50 themselves on the computer. Wake Forest, the other ranked (or is that "rank") ACC team, is 4-6 in its last 10 games. Trust me, the ACC tourney quarterfinals (and semifinals) are going to be awfully important this year.

Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma. The top half of the Big 12 has been quietly excellent all year long, especially Iowa State, which is still fighting for a No. 1 seed. Too bad the conference's power rating has been dragged down by the likes of a dreadful bottom four (I include Baylor in that group because of its non-conference schedule strength, No. 318). And that's a move up; two weeks ago, Baylor was No. 319 -- last in America -- in that category.

Big East: Boston College, Notre Dame and Syracuse. The Irish hang on despite Sunday's loss to Seton Hall, and Providence is very, very close to "lock" status. The Georgetown argument was fully explored above, and no one else can seem to win more than two games in a row. No conference tournament will have more sub-plots than the Big East.

Big Ten: Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin. The Badgers get "lock" status because they have so many quality wins. Iowa has quality wins, too, but one has to wonder if the undermanned Hawkeyes can recapture their early-season success. Several other Big Ten teams are tournament-worthy, but are too close to the middle of the pack to be considered a lock.

C-USA: None. Sorry, Cincy. Zero RPI Top 25 wins. Winning the conference tournament is the only sure way to be dancing in March.

Mountain West: None. Still waiting for someone (anyone?) to emerge from the pack.

MVC: Creighton. The Blue Jays have the profile and recognition to overcome a stumble in the Missouri Valley tournament. They are most accomplished of the mid-majors.

PAC-10: Stanford, UCLA and Arizona. USC and Cal are tournament-worthy, but each has too many warts to be considered "locks." The Pac-10 is more top-heavy than we can ever remember, which could hurt its NCAA entrants next month.

SEC: Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi and Alabama. The Gators' Sunday win at Tennessee put them in the Lock Box. The Vols, meanwhile, are two games below .500 in league play (5-7) and have lost seven of nine overall. Kentucky is the best team in the conference, followed by Florida (when healthy) and Mississippi.

WAC: Fresno State. The Bulldogs have encountered a few speed bumps on the road, but their overall at-large profile is quite good. The other contenders are trying to escape the bubble.

So, there you have it. There are, officially and unequivocally, 22 "locks" for the NCAA field. That leaves 43 spots up for grabs ... and a whole lot of sweating to be done between now and 6:30 p.m. ET on March 11.

Box Score Banter
The following question and statistical numbers come via J.C. Corrigan of Richmond, Va.

He asks:

"Which conference is best? Pac -0? ACC? SEC? Big 10? Big 12? Big East? Using the RPI, I evaluated the top eight teams in each conference (ACC is the smallest in terms of members, and I threw out their "Russian judge" team). If you were to add these individual team RPI up, the least sum would indicate the greatest depth:

Big Ten, 178; SEC, 194; Big East, 246; Big 12, 278; ACC, 369; Pac-10, 382.

Now some may argue that you should not count the bottom teams, since half are forced into a losing record. Others say, only one team can win, so why concern yourself with the bottom feeders? To refute that, here's what the sums look like using only the top four teams from each conference:

SEC, 40; Pac-10, 41; ACC, 48; Big Ten, 49; Big East, 66; Big 12, 69.

If indeed each conference has their bottom feeders, then we want to make sure there are no "gimmies" for those teams on top. So what's the RPI rating of the lowest team in each conference?

SEC, 103 (LSU); Big Ten, 135 (Northwestern); Big 12, 157 (Texas Tech); Big East, 167 (Virginia Tech); ACC, 168 (Clemson) Pac-10, 173 (Washington State)

Others will argue that we should include each team and then "normalize" based on the number of teams per conference. This will also account for the small differences between teams and reward second-tier team strength. Here are the conferences with their average RPI and median RPI.

SEC (39.1, 38.5), Big Ten (39.4, 29.0), Big East (45.2, 49.0), ACC (59.7, 35.0), Big 12 (66.7, 47.0), Pac-10 (70.8, 55.0).

This data clearly shows how "top heavy" the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-10 are. But who's the best? When evaluating where each conference ranks across the these five categories:

SEC: 2-1-1-1-3 8

Big Ten: 1-4-2-2-1 10

Big East: 1-5-4-3-4 17

ACC: 5-3-5-4-2 19

Big 12: 4-6-3-5-4 22

Pac-10: 6-2-6-6-6 26

The SEC has a slight edge over the Big Ten, but some may say the RPI is biased. So how would these numbers hold up using the Sugaring Ratings?

SEC: 10

Big 10: 11

ACC: 12

Big 12: 20

Pac-10: 22

Big East: 29

Personally, I think the RPI is a little more accurate. Hope you found this interesting in my attempt to answer the oldest question in the NCAA book. Ideally, I would like to include head-to-head competition and run these numbers, but I'm an amateur and I don't that much time on my hands."

Nice job, J.C. Your data is both valid and fun, and that's why we're here. Since there is no way to perfectly measure one conference against another, this is as good as any. Interestingly, the SEC this week eclipsed the Big Ten in overall Conference RPI.

You're just ahead of the curve!

Joe Lunardi is a regular in-season contributor for ESPN.com and the editor of www.bracketology.net. Write to Joe at jlunardi@home.com.

Send this story to a friend

ALSO SEE

Bracketology Banter

Box Score Banter archive