In looking over Saturday's action, it was hard to miss a phrase which characterized so many of the day's biggest games.
"Overtime"
Duke came off the mat to defeat Maryland in OT. Georgia scored a huge upset of Tennessee, in DOUBLE overtime. Cincinnati scored an important intersectional victory over Wake Forest in the extra session.
Outside the top 25, Massachusetts won at Temple in overtime. Also in overtime, Memphis outlasted UAB. Same for UNLV against San Diego State.
What does it all mean?
Say you plunk down a few hard-earned dollars to take in a college game this year. What are the chances you are going to get more than your money's worth?
Thanks to research assistant Steve Jenkins, we know the exact answer to that question. "Box Scores and More" has catalogued 2,413 games so far this season. Of that number, 131 needed at least one overtime period to produce a winner. This 5.4 percent figure has also been predictably on the rise since conference play began, with the number of "blowouts" (40-plus point victories) going way down.
At Christmas, we wrote with some surprise that blowouts were outnumbering overtime games. That is no longer the case, as only 71 games (2.9 percent) have been logged into that category.
Forgetting the blowouts, here are a few multiple-overtime games we wish we had seen (if you did -- and there is a story behind the story -- please write in):
Georgia 77, Tennessee, 2 OTs (Jan. 27): The Bulldogs' winning points come after 49 minutes, 53 seconds of
basketball.
Missouri 112, Iowa State 109, 4 OTs (Jan.13): A lot of people did see this game, but I was attending another at the time. Missouri's Clarence Gilbert put up 43 points in 56 epic minutes.
Illinois-Chicago 112, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 106, 4 OTs (Jan. 11): Jon-Pierre Mitchom tallies 33 points in 55 minutes to lead the Flames, who shoot 54 free throws in the victory.
Maryland-Eastern Shore 102, Albany 96, 3OT (Jan. 9): Albany's Antoine Johnson plays 55 minutes in a losing cause, scoring only nine points.
Cal-Santa Barbara 80, San Diego State 77, 3 OTs (Dec. 6): This was actually a defensive struggle. The teams were tied, 53-53, at the end of regulation.
San Francisco 90, Fresno State 89, 2 OTs (Dec. 2): One of only two blemishes on Fresno State's record to date. The Dons are just 4-10 since posting the upset.
At the other end of the spectrum, we're glad we missed the following blowouts (all of which exceeded 50-point margins):
Florida 125, Florida A&M 50 (Dec. 10)
Memphis 112, Howard 42 (Jan. 3)
Tulsa 115, Prairie View A&M 46 (Dec. 30)
Maryland 117, Chicago State 55 (Dec. 27)
New Mexico State 113, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 51 (Nov. 27)
Arizona 101, St. Mary's 41 (Dec. 2)
TCU 130, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 71 (Dec. 30)
Tulsa 107, Jackson State 49 (Jan. 2)
Florida 100, Florida Atlantic 42 (Nov. 27)
Alabama 110, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 53 (Nov. 25)
Oklahoma 103, Coppin State 49 (Dec. 16)
Gonzaga 102, St. Mary's 49 (Jan. 13)
Kentucky 102, High Point 49 (Dec. 27)
Maryland 105, Maryland-Eastern Shore 53 (Dec. 30)
Iowa State 95, Illinois-Chicago 44 (Dec. 2)
Providence 110, Brown 59 (Dec. 23)
Wright State 80, High Point 39 (Dec. 16)
Mississippi 98, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 47 (Nov. 18)
Points Per Shot Revisted
We've promised to keep track of the nation's leading scorers, but haven't done so for a while. We're not talking about their points, of course, but the revealing Points Per Shot statistic.
Some guys really help their teams win. Others, well, you be the judge.
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More for Less
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PLAYER/TEAM
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PPG
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PPS
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Michael Bradley, Villanova
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22.1
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1.74
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Brandon Wolfram, Texas-El Paso
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22.7
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1.68
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Troy Bell, Boston College
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21.0
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1.67
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Jason Williams, Duke
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21.1
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1.59
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Wes Burtner, Belmont
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23.1
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1.56
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Casey Calvary, Gonzaga
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21.1
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1.50
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Henry Domercant, Eastern Illinois
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25.1
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1.45
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Troy Murphy, Notre Dame
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23.5
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1.45
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Brian Heinle, Cal-State Northridge
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20.9
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1.41
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Will Solomon, Clemson
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23.2
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1.40
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Tarvis Williams, Hampton
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20.8
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1.39
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Demond Mallet, McNeese State
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22.6
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1.37
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Steven Howard, St Francis-NY
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22.2
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1.33
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Preston Shumpert, Syracuse
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20.7
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1.33
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Joseph Forte, North Carolina
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20.7
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1.33
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Ronnie McCollum, Centenary
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28.4
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1.31
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Joe Crispin, Penn State
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21.5
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1.31
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Trenton Hassell, Austin Peay
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21.1
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1.31
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Demond Stewart, Niagara
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21.0
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1.30
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Kyle Hill, Eastern Illinois
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22.3
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1.27
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Carlos Arroyo, Florida International
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22.1
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1.24
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Kareem Rush, Missouri
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21.6
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1.24
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Dwayne Jefferson, Mississippi Valley State
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22.1
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1.21
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Brandon Armstrong, Pepperdine
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20.8
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1.20
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Rasual Butler, La Salle
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21.4
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1.16
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Troy Bell of Boston College continues to make a case as the nation's most underrated player. The PPS numbers of he and Duke's Jason Williams are especially impressive coming from the guard position.
A second look at Preston Shumpert gives some insight to the drop off at Syracuse. Shumpert's PPS is down from a very healthy 1.49 since our last check.
Locked Out
A few weeks ago, we took some serious heat for suggesting the following six teams were in no way to be considered NCAA Tournament "locks." How have they fared?
Virginia: The Cavs are still not a lock for the Big Dance, but are holding their own in the talented ACC. NCAA odds: 80/20.
Dayton: The Flyers are fading fast, with Maui a distant memory. For the moment, the top of the A-10 has passed them by. NCAA odds: 30/70.
UConn: Still the most overrated team in the country. Another 10-point RPI
drop this week. NCAA odds: 50/50.
Georgetown: Marginally exposed against real competition. Still in
excellent shape for March. NCAA odds: 90/10.
DePaul: Please. Andy, what were you thinking? NCAA odds: 20/80.
Alabama: Now peaking against quality competition. May be the best team on
this list. NCAA odds: 90/10.
Remember the bet from last month: One or more of these teams would miss the tourney. Today? It looks like I might bat .500.
Box Score Banter
Now that "Bracket Banter" has taken over my weekly e-mail column, we'll try to run the best "Box Score Banter" right here.
"The RPI uses Strength of Schedule (SOS) as its strongest contributor to ranking. How does the RPI deal with the worst of the worst teams? Statistically, top 10 teams have just about as much chance of being
beaten by a 50th ranked team as a 200th ranked one. However, wouldn't
playing a 200th ranked team hurt one's Strength of Schedule much more
than a 50th ranked one even though both games are expected wins? What
I'm asking really is, if a team like Duke plays top 10 competition once
out of every two games and plays teams around 150th every other game,
won't they look worse than a team who plays 30th and 40th ranked teams
every game, even though that team is never really tested? Just
wondering."
Scott Jones
The point holds, Scott, only if your first assertion is correct (namely, that the elite teams are equally likely to win vs. No. 50 as they are vs. No. 200).
As I happens, the current RPI Top 10 has an aggregate record of 78-6 against Nos. 25-100 (my best stab at your first category). However, these same 10 teams are unbeaten (53-0) against teams ranked below 100.
This distinction is not insignificant. First of all, winning (and losing) against quality competition does matter. Second, the NCAA's adjusted RPI (reproduced only by Collegiate Basketball News) allows for 'penalty points' for sub-150 losses as well as 'bonus points' for aggressive scheduling.
Bottom line: Duke is better ducking No. 200 altogether, because it has nothing to gain and everything to lose.
"Just when you thought foul calls were possibly getting a little more lenient, Charleston Southern and Coastal Carolina combined to be called for 45 fouls (with only 21 players in the game) in an overtime game on Friday night. CSU was whistled for 34 of those, sending the Chanticleers to the line 52 times. CSU only made it to the line 27 times.
Between the two teams, three players fouled out, three more ended the game with four fouls and seven more had three. Amazingly, four of the 21 players were not called for a foul (even though only one of those played
more than 13 minutes)."
Chopper Johnson,
Charleston, S.C.
The 45 total fouls are no big deal under this year's standards. We are now only tracking games with 60 or more personals.
The 79 free throws, however, are indeed on the high side. Our new threshold is 75 total foul shots, so this game will "make the list" in that category.
We thank Chopper, our most "foul" correspondent in South Carolina, for his latest installment.
No this isn't quite what you thought it would be about?
"I was surfing the web the other day and came across the Stanford Cardinal men's basketball site. For their schedule, they list the entire NCAA Tournament all the way out to the Final Four.
Meanwhile Duke has never (and probably never will) be that presumptive. They just list the dates of the ACC tournament. Now I'm guessing Duke is a sure thing for the Final Four, but I'm not nearly as sure about Stanford.
And, by the way, Stanford has a patsy schedule (there, I've gone and said it)."
David Roundhill,
Duke '91
Many, many, many schools list their schedule through the NCAA
Tournament. Many others print an NCAA bracket in their media guide. I
never thought this was presumptive as much as it is "filler."
As for your other assertion, the current SOS for Duke (No. 16) and
Stanford (No. 26) are awfully close. While not a fan of either team,
their only significant distinction at this point was the head-to-head
matchup.
If memory serves, Stanford won that night against another of the
"patsies" on its schedule.
"Though Points Per Possession would make a fine acronym, it's a meaningless statistic insofar as it is totally comprehensive. Teams essentially have the same number of possessions per game (give or take
one), so the final score is an accurate measure of -- if not precisely points per possession -- the exact same underlying figure, just simply not divided by the same (or near same) denominator.
I started to provide an example, but I think this point is self-evident, no?
Noah Hunter
Let's hear again from the Points Per Possession proponents before I weight in. I'm still recovering from taking the Giants over the Ravens.
Think I'll stick with brackets!
Joe Lunardi is a regular in-season contributor for ESPN.com. He is also
contributing editor of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook,
www.collegebaskets.com. Write to Joe at jlunardi@home.com.
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ALSO SEE
Box Score Banter archive
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