North Carolina is among the greatest programs in the history of college basketball and can make a legitimate argument for being the best program in the college game.

But anyone who has watched Carolina play its first three games knows the 2002 version of the Tar Heels is not a great basketball team.

The Tar Heels are unsettled at point guard. With just two seniors, the roster is full of young and inexperienced players being asked to play major minutes. Overall, UNC lacks the level of talent to which this program has become accustomed. Because of all this, the team lacks confidence. And, for North Carolina, that is truly an unusual position.

The norm at Carolina is greatness, and anything less is considered unacceptable. But for the next five months, this North Carolina team will have to scratch and claw for every win.

At a place where the annual expectation is at least to be a national title contender, it is unsettling to see the proud Tar Heels struggle. Rightfully so, because of Carolina's lofty historical perch, many experts and fans wonder how Carolina could find itself in this position, how an 0-3 start is possible (The Heels won their fourth game, 83-77 over Georgia Tech), and most importantly, just whom they can blame.

	Some of the current UNC problems can be traced back to the decision to promote Bill Guthridge.

How Carolina Got Here
The answer is simple, but the scenario leading up to the current situation was somewhat complicated.

Carolina's current predicament, which I believe is only temporary, is directly traceable to Dean Smith's decision to retire in October, 1997, and Carolina's subsequent decision to hire longtime Smith assistant Bill Guthridge as a short-term replacement.

Don't get me wrong, Guthridge was an outstanding coach, and proved as much during his career with the Tar Heels. I have nothing but the highest regard for Guthridge as a teacher, coach and person. His record as Carolina's head coach supports that assertion, as he guided Carolina to two Final Fours in three years.

But he couldn't help the circumstances under which he was hired, which were his age and the way his short-term status would be perceived and used in recruiting circles. If Guthridge were perceived as a coach that would, or could, stay at Carolina for 10 or more years, he would have been a perfect choice to succeed Smith.

Instead, he was perceived as an older coach who would not be there for long. When Guthridge was hired, there was immediate and fervent speculation regarding how long he would stay, and who would replace him. Certainly, the end of Guthridge's career was far closer than the beginning, and speculation was that he was keeping the seat warm for someone else. Whether that is true or not is irrelevant. That was the perception, it was widely held, and the speculation about Guthridge took a significant toll on North Carolina's recruiting.

Opposing schools could, for the first time, recruit against Carolina by putting doubt in recruits' minds about how long Guthridge would stay. That created uncertainty among recruits about who would actually be coaching them if they went to Carolina, and how that could affect the player. This speculation was persistent throughout Guthridge's tenure, in recruiting circles and in the media, and Carolina's recruiting was affected negatively. As a result, several of Carolina's top choices, which in years past would surely have committed to the Heels, hedged and went elsewhere.

The Tar Heels had to "settle" for their second and third choices in some cases, and that has had a longterm affect. Certainly, the players Guthridge recruited were good players, but not up to the standard to which North Carolina had become accustomed. The only true marquee talent signed by Guthridge was Joseph Forte, who stayed only two seasons. When Guthridge retired after three years, he did so during the summer, and recruiting was affected by that timing as well.

Of course, anytime there is a coaching change, for many reasons, what usually follows is a short-term dip in the program's level of success. When there are two coaching changes in four years, the dip will likely be more pronounced. That is where Carolina finds itself right now. Had Matt Doherty taken over for Smith, given the fact that he is viewed as a longterm replacement, things would likely be much different for the Tar Heels right now.

The Current Heels
North Carolina is a better team than it has showed, and the Heels are much better than both Hampton and Davidson. Carolina's record should be no worse than 3-1, but the aforementioned problems would still exist.

North Carolina has good talent, but not great talent. While everyone lamented the talent level of last year's team, which overachieved and attained the No. 1 ranking in the nation for a time, the Tar Heels still had Forte and Brendan Haywood, who are now NBA players. Kris Lang and Jason Capel are excellent ACC performers, but neither can bring the ball up the court, direct traffic and then get in position to score the ball on every play. They need help.

The Heels' biggest problem is that they are unsettled and inexperienced at point guard, the most important position on the floor. Carolina's point guards have problems handling pressure and getting the ball into an entry position, and they have struggled putting pressure on the ball themselves at the point of attack on defense.

Adam Boone is a good player but not a great one, and has had problems adapting. Brian Morrison has very good talent but is still learning how to play and compete with consistency at the highest level (and, don't forget, he played on a losing team in high school). Melvin Scott is a freshman shooting guard playing the point. Scott is finding it difficult to handle pressure and make good decisions at the same time, especially when he has such inexperienced players around him.

Good point guards make those around them better. Shaky point guards make those around them shakier. Carolina is shaky right now.

While it is not an excuse, these are not Matt Doherty's players. They are mostly players recruited during Guthridge's tenure, when he was recruiting with one hand tied behind his back because of the perceptions of his status.

	“	History also tells us that success in college basketball is very fragile. When there is a coaching change, or when players leave early, it affects things significantly ... everywhere. No program, not North Carolina, not UCLA, not Kentucky, is immune from that fragility. ... But kick sand in the Heels' faces while you can, because this program will not be down for long. ”
		— Jay Bilas

The Freshman Class
In his first full year of recruiting, Doherty recruited very well. He brought in Jawad Williams, Jackie Manuel and Scott -- three solid prospects that will blossom into fine players before they leave Chapel Hill.

However, all three have struggled mightily in their first three games, not to mention the exhibition games. To expect them to perform at the highest level given their experience level and the talent around them is unrealistic.

The easy response to this quandry is that other freshmen around the country are playing well despite their youth, so why not the Carolina freshmen?

Well, the freshmen that are performing well at other programs generally have better and more experienced talent around them, not just in games, but every day in practice. In recent years, practice sessions at North Carolina were more challenging than the games themselves, and young players were able to gain great experience in practice every single day. After all, they were playing against some of the nation's finest players and being taught by example how to play and compete. Younger players had to go up against talented Carolina juniors and seniors every day and learned valuable lessons. It wasn't just the coaches' voices the rookies were relying upon; they learned by getting battle tested every day.

Right now, North Carolina has inexperience playing against inexperience in practice, and they are not getting those lessons in rapid-fire succession day in and day out. The same thing is happening at other programs around the country that have had coaching changes, or have had players bolt college for the NBA. It is not enough to simply have the coaches teach every day. Players have to learn by playing, too. These kids are good players, but freshmen mature and adjust at different rates, and these youngsters need some time to develop.

Help is on the Way … Give it Time
In his second year, Doherty has recruited well again and has one of the nation's best recruiting hauls. Next year, Raymond Felton will take over at the point, Rashad McCants will compete at the wing position, and Sean May will be a factor inside. Doherty is an outstanding coaching prospect, but he needs time to build his own program and coach his own players.

History tells us that good things take time, even at the nation's best programs.

In Carolina's past, Frank McGuire left the Tar Heel program and a young coach named Dean Smith took over. Smith was hung in effigy in Chapel Hill and was on the coaching hot seat early on, but he turned out to be pretty good.

Down the road in Durham, Bill Foster left Duke, and a young coach named Mike Krzyzewski struggled to the NIT, followed by two 17-loss seasons, before he was able to rebuild the program. He has put together a pretty good career since then.

No program, not North Carolina, not UCLA, not Kentucky, is immune from the fragility of coaching changes and recruiting.

North Carolina has to ride out a very difficult time. The Heels have been so strong for so long that they don't know what it feels like to struggle. Other programs do, and they will approach the Tar Heels looking for payback for all of the years Carolina dominated them.

Well, kick sand in the Heels' faces while you can, because this program will not be down for long.