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Thursday, November 15
 
What is success? Depends on expectations

By Jay Bilas
Special to ESPN.com

Expectations abound every season, and every coach, player and team finds itself the subject of them -- like it or not.

Some expectations are reasonable, but most are not. Yet, every participant in college basketball has to face these expectations. Not to mention, answer for them.

It isn't fair, but it is a cheerless reality.

Case in point: The expectations placed on Maryland's season is to return to the Final Four; compete successfully for the national title; and finally knock Duke off of its perch as the paramount program in the ACC and the nation. Gary Williams' team then goes out and doesn't play its best in a close loss to a very solid Arizona team (which then went on to defeat Florida) in the IKON Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. It doesn't matter that Maryland would shot 59 percent the next night to beat Temple in the consolation game. After the loss to Arizona, the collective hand wringing had already begun by media and fans.

The expectations for Knight and Rick Pitino are high, and grand conclusions will be drawn from their early performances. But we should wait a while before we declare either a genius or a bum.
 

I was told by many that Maryland is not as good as last year, and that it was unbelievable that the then No. 3-ranked Terps could lose to an unranked Arizona team. Observers opined that Maryland may not have the goods to get to Atlanta, and that there was no way it could expect to beat Duke with an effort like the one against Arizona.

Clearly, many expected Maryland to exhibit postseason form on Nov. 8. Needless to say, they were were shocked to see their preseason pick lose a game to a good team before Thanksgiving.

Please. Maryland did not play well, and Arizona did. The Terps are just as capable of getting to the Final Four today as they were two weeks ago.

Much of what was written and said was a simple overreaction to a loss, and partly attributable to the fact that many prognosticators wanted to take it out on Williams and his team because they felt they were proven wrong about their pick of Maryland as a top-three pick. After going 1-1 against Arizona and Temple, Williams had to answer questions about his team's character, its preparedness, and even about Duke.

There were plenty of folks with short memories in attendance. Didn't a Duke team go 0-2 in the same event just two years before? And didn't Kentucky leave New York with a bagel in the win column last year?

For that matter, can we judge Matt Doherty based upon last season and this one? In his first year, he led North Carolina to a No. 1 ranking and an NCAA Tournament berth. This year may not be as successful. But, remember, Mike Krzyzewski did not do as well his first year at Duke. He had Gene Banks, Kenny Dennard and Vince Taylor and went to the NIT, followed by two losing seasons. Things worked out pretty well for his career after that.

Perhaps we should take more of a wait-and-see approach with Doherty, rather than sounding the death knell for Carolina if they lose a few games early with all of the new and young talent.

Which brings us to Bob Knight tonight.

The expectations for Knight, and Rick Pitino on Sunday night in his debut at Louisville, are high, and grand conclusions will be drawn from their early performances. Ditto that for incoming freshmen like Dajuan Wagner of Memphis and Kelvin Torbert of Michigan State.

But, can we expect Knight to take over a struggling Texas Tech program and lead it to the NCAA Tournament immediately upon arrival? Hey, Bill Self did it at Tulsa in his first year, and again at Illinois. Well, Knight and Pitino are in different situations, with different resources, different schedules, and different players -- not all of whom they chose to coach.

Knight's challenge at Texas Tech reminds him of when he took over at Indiana in 1972, when he inherited a losing program. However, Indiana was a basketball school in a big time conference that had done well in prior years. At Tech, Knight has a program that has been at the bottom of the Big 12 for a few years, has never seen the top of the college basketball world, and has never been considered a basketball school. Texas Tech has great facilities, but Lubbock is not now confused with Westwood or Chapel Hill on the basketball map.

Pitino's challenge is similar to the one he took on at Kentucky. He takes over a Louisville program that has won national championships and gone to Final Fours in the past, but he has to reload and energize the program. The easier road to winning belongs to Pitino based upon resources, location and tradition.

Do we have to adjust our expectations based upon such considerations? No, but we should. We should wait a while before we declare either a genius or a bum.

What we should expect, and will most likely see from each, is for their teams to have new and better attitudes, play with more passion and intensity, and show a steady improvement as the season progresses. How many games each team wins this season will be far less telling than the way they play and the direction of the program over the long haul. The true measure of their success will come over a period of years.

As for the freshmen, although college basketball has gotten much younger over the last six years, and more and more freshmen are playing bigger roles earlier, these kids are still only 18 years old, and mature at different rates. Jason Richardson didn't do much his freshman year compared to others, but matured at his own rate and exploded as a sophomore. Tayshaun Prince had difficulty early in his career, and is now a national player of the year candidate.

Is Torbert a second-rate freshman compared to Wagner because he has averaged only eight points over his first two games while Wagner averaged 25 points? Certainly not. Tom Izzo and John Calipari run very different systems, and the kids will adjust at different rates. To judge each on early returns would be premature, and a mistake.

The process to being a great college basketball player takes time, as does the process of building a great team and a great program. We should adjust our expectations and judgments about players, teams and coaches -- but I know we won't. It would just be nice if we did.






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