With Joseph Forte, Brendan Haywood, Ronald Curry and Julius Peppers out of the picture, next season will be a challenging one for Matt Doherty and the North Carolina basketball program.
While it is questionable whether or not the Tar Heels will be a top 10 team all season, I still think the Tar Heels are still going to be very good if they can solidify the point-guard position with the young, talented players they have entering the program.
The same questions were being posed about North Carolina in 1995. When Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace left school early to turn pro, people thought North Carolina was in trouble. But then Antawn Jamison was first-team all-ACC as a freshman. That does not mean it will happen again. But anyone who underestimates North Carolina's ability to field a representative team that lives up to its standards is making a big mistake.
Looking at the ACC, Duke and Maryland are the two best teams going into next season, with the Blue Devils head and shoulders above the pack. In the next tier below Duke and Maryland are Virginia, Wake Forest and North Carolina, probably in that order, with N.C. State and Georgia Tech in the mix as well.
To break away from the pack, North Carolina's incoming freshmen will need to step up and be contributors. The three – Jackie Manuel, Jawad Williams and Melvin Scott – are talented players. But no one knows how 18-year-old kids will perform. Players mature at different levels. Some develop quickly, while others take longer. For example, Jamison was great as a freshman, but a fellow freshman named Vince Carter needed more time – and he wound up being pretty good.
North Carolina's standards are awfully high. Their 37-year streak of finishing in the ACC's top three will be in jeopardy. But I wouldn't put anything past the Tar Heels. Winning is in North Carolina's blood. Tar Heel players have brought up in a culture of winning. The players, even those who have been in Chapel Hill only one year, have been indoctrinated into Carolina way. The Tar Heels may lose some games, but they will also give championship effort every game.
There is always an adjustment period following a coaching change, whether the reason was retirement, dismissal or moving to another school. Doherty did a nice job last year and will continue to excel. As he continues to recruit players who are best suited for his system, the North Carolina program will only get better.
Jay Bilas is a college basketball analyst for ESPN.
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