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| | Saturday, March 11 | |||||
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| Saint Louis took control of its postseason fate with a Conference
USA tournament title. Arkansas could be next if it wins the SEC title Sunday.
UNLV and Fresno State aren't so lucky. Both teams should be in the
field of 64, but neither the Mountain West or the WAC have automatic berths.
The Rebels earned a share of the regular-season and won the Mountain West
Conference tournament title game on their home floor. Not taking UNLV would
be a crime.
Fresno State finally did what it hadn't done under Jerry Tarkanian in the
previous five years -- the Bulldogs won the games that mattered most in
March. Fresno State won the WAC tournament on its home court with a win over
Tulsa, the third victory over the Golden Hurricane this season (Tulsa only lost four games total).
The Bulldogs should be given credit for
surviving without Courtney Alexander and Melvin Ely at times this season
because of nagging injuries. Only four of the Bulldogs' nine losses came
with both players in uniform at the same time.
But, like the Mountain West, the WAC doesn't have an automatic berth
this season. That leaves both UNLV and Fresno State having to sweat out
Selection Sunday. It's especially painful for Tarkanian, who 10 years ago
won the national title with UNLV, but has played in four straight NITs.
Meanwhile, the Billikens' improbable run to the Conference USA
tournament knocked out another bubble team. Saint Louis went from not even being on the bubble to having an automatic bid. Arkansas can do the same
with a win in the SEC tournament over Auburn on Sunday in Atlanta. Arkansas
beat LSU, which lost its chance at a No. 1 seed, leaving the tournament
without any of the four co-champions in the final.
Michigan State's appearance in the Big Ten title game Sunday likely
locks up a No. 1 seed for the Spartans. The same is probably true for Duke
in the ACC, which plays Maryland on Sunday. Temple has a right to a No. 1 seed
after wasting St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic 10 title game Saturday. But
don't count out Stanford and Arizona from getting No. 1 seeds, even though
the last two weeks haven't been kind to either team. Stanford has three
losses, two to Arizona and one to UCLA. Two of the three were in the last
week. Arizona beat Stanford for the season sweep, but lost at Oregon and
Oregon State the previous week.
Cincinnati still remains a No. 1 possibility
but according to one former selection committee member, the Bearcats would
be a tough sell at No. 1 without Kenyon Martin.
Trying to break a tie between Stanford and Arizona may too hard for
the committee, making it not out of the realm of possibility that a
darkhorse No. 1 such as Iowa State could emerge by late Sunday.
St. John's victory over Connecticut in the Big East tournament title
game could justify a No. 2 seed for the Red Storm, but a No. 3 seed is more
likely while the Huskies may have moved up to a four.
So, where does that leave our at-large count heading into Sunday?
Pretty tight. Here's our breakdown of the potential 35 at-large teams and
who may not make it anymore:
1. Duke/Maryland loser (ACC); 2. Dayton (A-10); 3. St. Bonaventure (A-10); 4. Connecticut (Big East); 5. Syracuse (Big East); 6. Miami (Big East); 7. Seton Hall (Big East); 8. Florida (SEC); 9. Tennessee
(SEC); 10. Vanderbilt (SEC); 11. Kentucky (SEC); 12. LSU (SEC); 13. Michigan
State/Illinois loser (Big Ten); 14. Indiana (Big Ten); 15. Ohio State (Big
Ten); 16. Purdue (Big Ten); 17. Wisconsin (Big Ten); 18. Iowa State/Oklahoma
loser (Big 12); 19. Texas (Big 12); 20. Oklahoma State (Big 12); 21. Kansas
(Big 12); 22. Missouri (Big 12); 23. Cincinnati (Conference USA); 24. DePaul
(C-USA); 25. Louisville (C-USA); 26. Utah (Mountain West); 27. UNLV (MWC); 28.
Tulsa (WAC); 29. Fresno State (WAC); 30. Stanford (Pac-10); 31. Oregon (Pac-10); 32.
UCLA (Pac-10).
The final three spots are tough. Auburn gets one if Arkansas wins the
SEC tournament. Next in line is North Carolina, based largely on its
schedule rating and a few quality wins. Pepperdine appears to be ahead of
the other regular-season mid-major champions that didn't win its tournament.
The Waves seemed like a lock, even after they lost to Gonzaga in the West
Coast Conference tournament. But rallying by a few teams like UCLA,
Missouri, Fresno State and UNLV hurt the Waves.
Indiana State follows the Waves with the Sycamores' Missouri Valley
Conference title worth a bid. Southwest Missouri State may be slightly ahead
of Bowling Green, which won the East Division of the Mid-American
Conference. That leaves Kent, Arizona State (a loser to Stanford on Saturday),
Notre Dame and Virginia sitting on the fence hoping to get one of those final few spots.
Bids are usually earned the final week of the regular-season and a
single loss by these teams may have damaged them too severely to be
considered.
Friday, March 10 Bubble teams need to start worrying about Saint Louis, South Carolina, Arkansas, Penn State, N.C. State and Wake Forest crushing their NCAA Tournament hopes. Saint Louis, which may have put itself on the bubble with wins over Cincinnati and Tulane, can win the Conference USA tournament by beating DePaul on Saturday. A Billikens win would certainly steal away a bid from someone else -- and it's not as easy as taking one from Tulane, which wasn't in the field yet anyway. Meanwhile, South Carolina and Arkansas -- both teams that didn't have a shot at at-large berths -- have to be taken seriously as potential champions of the SEC tournament with wins Friday over Tennessee and Kentucky, respectively. Penn State beat Ohio State Friday in the Big Ten to ensure an NIT berth, but why can't the Nittany Lions continue the magical run? N.C. State and Wake Forest took out Virginia and North Carolina in the ACC quarterfinals. Will either get past Duke or Maryland? Probably not, but they may have contributed to the ACC receiving just a stunning two bids. Virginia and North Carolina might still get in as at-large teams, but they failed to ensure bids by losing Friday. The inability of those two teams to get into the field kept my automatic/lock list from growing too much. St. Bonaventure earned a spot on my bracket with a win over Dayton in the Atlantic 10 semifinals. While other bubble teams have stumbled, the Bonnies have moved ahead for the 57th spot. UCLA can make it 58 with a win over Washington on Saturday. It wasn't easy, but Fresno State wrapped up the 59th spot with a 103-100 double-overtime win over Hawaii in the WAC semifinals. UNLV helped its chances for spot No. 60 with a wild win over Wyoming late Friday in the Mountain West Conference. Utah's loss to BYU probably isn't enough to remove the Utes from lock status. The final four to five spots are likely down to UNLV, Virginia, North Carolina, Kent, Bowling Green, Indiana State, Arizona State, Southwest Missouri State, Notre Dame and, now, Saint Louis. That is, unless South Carolina, Penn State, Arkansas, Wake Forest and N.C. State win their conference tournaments, or Utah State gets beat in the Big West, which would take away the final few spots. Thursday, March 9 NEW YORK -- Two star players, two shots and two burst bubbles in the Big East on Thursday. Notre Dame had a shot to beat Miami when Big East player of the year Troy Murphy had an open 3-pointer and missed, dooming the Irish to a 61-58 loss to the Hurricanes. Two hours later, Villanova's Malik Allen's turnaround jumper was short as the Wildcats failed to upset St. John's, 75-70, at Madison Square Garden. Murphy's missed 3-pointer and Allen's short jumper likely signaled the end of the bubble ride for both Big East teams. "If we're NIT-bound, we'll accept that and play hard," Notre Dame coach Matt Doherty said. "We had the shots we wanted." Doherty called his former boss, Kansas coach Roy Williams, and asked if he should politic for the Irish to get into the field. Williams told him not to bother. So, Doherty is trying to let his team's highs and their not-so-bad lows speak for them. The Irish lost by two to Syracuse and by three at Miami in the last few weeks. They have beaten Ohio State on the road, swept Connecticut and defeated St. John's at home. But the Irish are still 18-14, a cumbersome number that will be hard to get past when comparing teams. "We'll go into the NIT and play hard and hopefully get a chance to play more games, which is what we all want," Doherty said. "We could get some home games and really keep this thing going." Villanova's quest for an NCAA berth was less sturdy without an upset of the Red Storm. The Wildcats didn't have any quality wins and a 19-12 record screams more of a NIT mark. While the Irish and Wildcats likely fell off the bubble, Miami, St. John's and Connecticut improved their seeding in the NCAA Tournament with wins. The Hurricanes continued to shut down Murphy (three straight wins by keeping him in check from the perimeter and under 20 points) with a suffocating defense. Miami coach Leonard Hamilton is confident the 'Canes can win the Big East tournament and make a serious run in the NCAA Tournament. They could climb up to a four or five seed if they do win the tourney. St. John's coach Mike Jarvis is just pleased the Red Storm survived but could still compete for a similar seed. The Huskies are streaking toward a six or five seed if they win the title. Meanwhile, Seton Hall will still earn a berth but has slipped the past month. Senior point guard Shaheen Holloway said the Pirates aren't getting the ball inside enough, but the problem was more with Connecticut than the Pirates' inside game. The Huskies can tie up the Pirates' shooters (they did in three wins), leaving the Pirates' inexperienced frontcourt unable to break through of the Huskies' tight defense in the lane. "We can play better basketball if we get the chance," Seton Hall coach Tommy Amaker said. "We'd just be happy if we get in and that would be a tribute to our seniors." The Big East looks like a lock for five teams now, which doesn't change my list from Wednesday's column. But the number of automatic locks went to 54 with Wisconsin's win over Northwestern, 55 with Missouri's win over Texas Tech and 56 with Vanderbilt's win over Mississippi State. UCLA will make it 57 with a win over Washington on Saturday after beating Washington State on Thursday. Wins by Virginia and North Carolina on Friday in the ACC quarterfinals will likely be numbers 58 and 59 in my field of 64. Tulane, St. Bonaventure, Fresno State and UNLV kept pace for the final five spots by winning quarterfinals games in their tournaments Thursday. Arizona State did, too, with a win over Cal. Meanwhile, SMU dropped out with a WAC quarterfinals loss to Hawaii. Kent, Bowling Green, Indiana State and Southwest Missouri State are still waiting to see if they can beat out any of the aforementioned five teams for the final spots. Wednesday, March 8 Notre Dame and Villanova took steps toward at-large berths with wins Wednesday, but neither team is in the field yet. Beating Rutgers and Pittsburgh were must-wins for both schools but they may need to pull off upsets against Miami and St. John's, respectively, to get into the NCAA Tournament. Remember, the tournament is played in March, not November. Sure, Notre Dame's wins over Ohio State and Connecticut are important but the Irish's weak finish (see losses to Providence and Pittsburgh) doesn't help. Villanova's loss to last-place Boston College -- sans Troy Bell -- last Saturday is even worse. Both teams will be compared against other bubble teams, regardless of conference affiliation. Xavier's slim hopes of an at-large bid were bolstered by a win over Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10 first round. The Musketeers face a bubble-bursting game against St. Bonaventure in the quarterfinals Thursday. The loser is in the NIT, the winner has some hope. Houston's win over Marquette in Conference USA could spell trouble for Tulane, which has had trouble beating the Cougars. A Tulane loss will put the Wave in the NIT. DePaul, which should be in the field already, may sweat out Selection Sunday if the Blue Demons don't beat hometown favorite Memphis. The Tigers upset South Florida (hello NIT) in the first round Wednesday. Ball State beat Miami (Ohio) in the Mid-American Conference title game, giving new life to Kent and Bowling Green. Had ninth-seeded Miami won the game, Ball State would have likely been the only other team considered for an at-large. Now, Kent and Bowling Green have a chance, if they compare favorably, for one of the final spots. Ball State's win puts my automatic/locks at 53 heading into Thursday. The number will grow to 57 Thursday if Wisconsin beats Northwestern in the Big Ten tournament, Virginia beats N.C. State and North Carolina defeats Wake Forest in the ACC tournament. UCLA still needs to sweep Washington and Washington State to make it 58. That leaves six spots for 14 teams: UNLV, Fresno State, SMU, St. Bonaventure, Notre Dame, Missouri, Tulane, Southwest Missouri State, Indiana State, Kent, Bowling Green, Xavier, Arizona State and Villanova. Meanwhile, last year's NCAA first-round hero -- Harold "The Show" Arceneaux -- may be in the NIT after the Wildcats were beaten by Cal State-Northridge in the Big Sky tournament late Wednesday. Arceneaux scored 31 in an upset over North Carolina in last year's first round. Tuesday, March 7 Bubble teams weren't affected by the outcomes of the Midwestern Collegiate, Mid-Continent and Sun Belt title games Tuesday, but their hopes could burst beginning with major tournaments Wednesday. Xavier's slim chances of an at-large berth would end with a first-round Atlantic 10 loss to Rhode Island on Wednesday. The Musketeers must beat the Rams, and then likely need a win over St. Bonaventure (another bubble team) in the quarterfinals Thursday to keep hope alive. The dangerous team in the Atlantic 10 is George Washington. But the Musketeers and Bonnies should be thankful that the Colonials are in Temple's bracket. GW probably can't get past the Owls, so the at-large hopefuls don't need to worry about the Colonials making a run to the tourney title and ruining their NCAA chances. Notre Dame has to beat Rutgers in the first round of the Big East tournament Wednesday, but the Irish aren't assured of a bid even with a quarterfinals appearance. Facing Miami in the quarterfinals will put even more pressure on the Irish. If the Irish can get past the 'Canes to the semifinals, that could be enough for them to get one of the last at-large berths. Villanova faces a trouble spot in Pittsburgh in Wednesday's first round. The Panthers have the talent to pull off an upset in the first round. Even if the Wildcats get past the Panthers, St. John's awaits with a partisan crowd behind it Thursday night making a Villanova bid less likely. Seton Hall's seeding can get hurt with a loss to Providence, but that's about it. The Pirates will likely face their nemesis Connecticut in the quarterfinals Thursday. Conference USA's bubble teams -- DePaul and Tulane -- don't play until Thursday, but the Green Wave would rather see Marquette rather than Houston. The Wave beat the Golden Eagles last week but lost to the Cougars earlier in the season. DePaul needs to root for South Florida to beat Memphis on Wednesday. The Blue Demons don't want to play the hometown Tigers in a quarterfinal. Memphis has won five straight. Monday, March 6 Gonzaga made the decision of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee easier late Monday night. The Bulldogs were the second seed, and had they lost to top-seeded Pepperdine, they would have put themselves in potential peril of not earning a bid. But the thrilling 69-65 overtime win over the Waves in the West Coast Conference title game likely means that the WCC will get two bids. Gonzaga may be looking at a lower seed than the No. 10 it rode to the Elite Eight last season. Getting past the first round will be tougher without reserve guard Mike Nilson, who suffered a ruptured Achilles against St. Mary's in the first round of the WCC tournament. The Waves have a gaudy record, a WCC regular-season title and a tough non-conference schedule to prove they belong in the field of 64. With the Bulldogs and Waves in the field, at least by my estimation, that puts the number of secure bids at 58. The breakdown is as follows: 29 automatic bids; 1 at-large lock for the WCC, A-10, WAC, MWC; 5 in Big Ten; 4 in Big 12, SEC, Big East; 3 in ACC, Pac-10 and 2 in C-USA. That leaves six at-large berths for another team in the Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, WAC, MWC, A-10, C-USA and the Missouri Valley and Mid-American Conference to fight over this week. Miami (Ohio) made life more difficult for Kent's and Bowling Green's chances with its advancement to the conference title game. If the RedHawks win the tournament, the MAC could be in jeopardy of receiving only one bid. A Ball State championship would lend itself to a more respectable two bids, with Kent and Bowling Green vying for the other spot with the Cardinals. Bowling Green had the best regular season, but Kent had the strongest RPI. Ball State had the best non-conference win, a rout of Purdue. The selection committee will have its toughest chore trying to weed out the best at-large candidate. The Missouri Valley is even tighter after Creighton's upset in the conference title game. Southwest Missouri State had won 10 in a row and finished second. If the league gets two bids, regular-season champ Indiana State could get squeezed out of the process. Had Southwest Missouri State won the title, Indiana State may have had a stronger argument to be the second team. Central Connecticut won the Northeast title, but the Blue Devils wouldn't have received an at-large berth. UNC Wilmington won the Colonial Athletic Association over Richmond, leaving the top two teams in the league -- James Madison and George Mason -- hoping the NIT looks kindly upon them. Iona's Jeff Ruland did what he was brought in to do, taking the Gaels to the NCAA Tournament with a victory over Siena in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Ruland is the fourth coach to take the Gaels to the NCAAs, succeeding the late Jim Valvano (whom he played for), Pat Kennedy and Tim Welsh. Siena coach Paul Hewitt told ESPN.com that the Saints don't have the résumé to earn an at-large berth.
Sunday, March 5 NCAA seeding among at-large locks was also on the line Sunday. Miami's victory over St. John's -- and a remarkable piece of the Big East title which came with it (the turnaround was the buzzer-beating win over Villanova) -- could place the 'Canes anywhere from a No. 5 to a No. 7 seed. They were easily a double-digit seed a few weeks ago. Elsewhere, Auburn's third straight loss without Chris Porter has the Tigers heading in the wrong direction. Auburn has a bye until the SEC quarterfinals Friday in Atlanta, where it will likely meet Florida (the Gators play Mississippi in the first round of the SEC tournament Thursday). Another loss and Auburn could realistically be as low as a 10 seed, riding a four-game losing streak and with a roster that likely won't include Porter in the NCAA Tournament.
Saturday, March 4 The Bruins could have received a bid with 18 wins had they lost to Stanford and defeated Washington and Washington State. Now, the Bruins just have to take care of business by beating the Washington schools at home next week. A fourth- or fifth-place UCLA team in the Pac-10 would be hard to turn away, thanks to a 19-11 overall record (10-8 in Pac-10) and with wins over DePaul, Purdue, North Carolina and Stanford. Stanford's loss opened up the race for No. 1 seeds, with Cincinnati and Duke looking stronger than most. Stanford's loss probably isn't enough to knock the Cardinal out of the No. 1 spot. But Arizona's loss, Syracuse's loss to Connecticut, Florida's defeat at Kentucky and Temple's earlier loss at St. Joe's this week may have cleared the way for Michigan State to regain a No. 1 seed. But Ohio State could still have a say if the Buckeyes can win the Big Ten conference tournament. NCAA selection committee tournament chair Craig Thompson said power ratings shouldn't be the sole indicator for No. 1 seeds, opening up the possibility that either the Spartans or Buckeyes could be a No. 1 seed despite neither having a top-10 power rating.The first automatic berths were handed out Saturday, and not just by first-round speed bumps. Samford won the Trans American Athletic Conference and Winthrop won the Big South. Both teams have proven they can knock off a high-major with Samford's win over St. John's and Winthrop's win over Missouri proving that neither should be dismissed as a 15 or 16 seed.
Pennsylvania also grabbed an NCAA Tournament berth by clinching first place in the Ivy League, which does not play a conference tournament. | ALSO SEE Who's on the bubble? Championship Week AUDIO/VIDEO   The College Hoops crew discusses Notre Dame's tournament chances.RealVideo: | 28.8  | |||||